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Frontiers of Economics in China

ISSN 1673-3444

ISSN 1673-3568(Online)

CN 11-5744/F

邮发代号 80-978

Frontiers of Economics in China  2013, Vol. 8 Issue (3): 390-429   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-002-013-0020-0
  research-article 本期目录
An Estimated DSGE Model for Business Cycle Analysis in China
An Estimated DSGE Model for Business Cycle Analysis in China
Biao Gu1(), Jianfeng Wang2(), Jingfei Wu3()
1. School of Economics, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China; 2. Research Center of Applied Finance, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China; 3. School of Economics, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China
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Abstract

A small-scale, but highly-stylized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is estimated by the maximum likelihood method using Chinese quarterly data. Model specifications and parameter equalities between various competing model variants are addressed by formal statistical hypothesis tests, while implications for business cycle fluctuations are evaluated via a variance decomposition experiment, second-moments matching, and some out-of-sample forecast exercises. It is highlighted that the monetary authority takes an aggressive stance to the current inflation pressure (there is a significant lagged response), while leaving less attention to changes in aggregate output. Variance decomposition reveals that large percentages of variations in real and nominal variables are explained by the highly volatile preference and potential output shock, respectively. When nominal and real frictions as well as additional shocks are included, overall our estimated model can successfully reproduce the stylized facts from actual data of Chinese business cycles and frequently can even outperform those forecasts from an unconstrained VAR.

Key wordsbusiness cycle analysis    Chinese economy    DSGE model    interest rate rule
出版日期: 2013-09-05
Corresponding Author(s): Biao Gu,Email:billgu@shu.edu.cn; Jianfeng Wang,Email:wjfruc@126.com; Jingfei Wu,Email:afeiwu@126.com   
 引用本文:   
. An Estimated DSGE Model for Business Cycle Analysis in China[J]. Frontiers of Economics in China, 2013, 8(3): 390-429.
Biao Gu, Jianfeng Wang, Jingfei Wu. An Estimated DSGE Model for Business Cycle Analysis in China. Front Econ Chin, 2013, 8(3): 390-429.
 链接本文:  
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fec/CN/10.3868/s060-002-013-0020-0
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fec/CN/Y2013/V8/I3/390
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