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Frontiers of Economics in China

ISSN 1673-3444

ISSN 1673-3568(Online)

CN 11-5744/F

邮发代号 80-978

Frontiers of Economics in China  2020, Vol. 15 Issue (1): 56-69   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-011-020-0003-3
  本期目录
Interest Rate Volatility Regimes in Selected Asian Countries: A Univariate Markov Switching Analysis
Dicle Ozdemir()
Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Mugla Sitki Kocman University, Kotekli Kampusu, Mugla, 48000, Turkey
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Abstract

Business cycle dynamics are determined by relatively large volatilities in output, consumption, and investment, which leads to cyclical fluctuations in interest rates. Using the Markov switching model, we model the nominal interest rate movements to explain the volatility regime shifts in a set of selected emerging Asian economies. The estimated results provide significant evidence of regime-dependent means, variances, and probabilities in both stable and volatile regimes in selected countries, confirming the existence of two distinct regimes in nominal interest rate movements. In addition, the smoothed probability results of switching autoregressive model show that the model is capable of capturing the two regimes for the corresponding nominal interest rate behaviors. Besides, the results reveal that the stables regimes have higher durations than the volatile regimes. This study also shows the advantage of Markov switching models over conventional regression models, allowing the identification of different regimes for the cyclical behavior of interest rates.

Key wordsregime switching    Markov regime    nominal interest rate    Asian countries    emerging economies    business cycle    volatility    switching autoregressive model
出版日期: 2020-04-18
 引用本文:   
. [J]. Frontiers of Economics in China, 2020, 15(1): 56-69.
Dicle Ozdemir. Interest Rate Volatility Regimes in Selected Asian Countries: A Univariate Markov Switching Analysis. Front. Econ. China, 2020, 15(1): 56-69.
 链接本文:  
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fec/CN/10.3868/s060-011-020-0003-3
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fec/CN/Y2020/V15/I1/56
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