Frontiers of Economics in China

ISSN 1673-3444

ISSN 1673-3568(Online)

CN 11-5744/F

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RegTech: Theory and Practice in Technology Driven Financial Regulation
LIU Mengfei, FENG Jie, LUO Xiaowei
Frontiers of Economics in China    2022, 17 (1): 164-187.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-015-022-0007-3
摘要   PDF (0KB)

As a disruptive innovation, FinTech has posed risks in the financial industry that are more unidentifiable, sweeping, disruptive and influential. Given these new developments, deeper regulatory reform has become necessary to safeguard national financial security, and prevent and dissolve financial risks. On March 11, 2021, the 14th Five-Year Plan1 endorsed by the Fourth Session of the 13th National People’s Congress stressed that China will improve the modern financial regulatory system and shore up our weaknesses in the regulatory system, and boost the application of regulatory technology and financial innovation risk assessment. This marks that the establishment of a technology-driven financial regulatory framework has been put on the agenda. Based on an analysis of the essential implications and drivers of RegTech innovation, this paper discusses the theoretical logic of RegTech innovation. Technology enables intelligent regulatory processes, efficient information processing and robust risk control. The restructuring of the regulatory system has revealed shifts in regulatory paradigms. These include a shift from passive response to proactive change, a shift toward positive interactions between regulators and industry players, as well as more close coordination among regulators. These changes have resulted in more adaptable and efficient regulation. After summarizing foreign experience and Chinese practice, this paper presents optimal pathways for RegTech innovation in China in the following aspects: consolidating the rule-of-law foundation for RegTech innovation, speeding up institutional reforms, improving policy services, strengthening infrastructure development, and building multiparty cooperation mechanisms. This study serves as a reference for building a technology-centric modern financial regulatory system and a sound environment for FinTech development.

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Effect of Digital Economy Development on Human Capital Structure
LI Mengna, ZHOU Yunbo
Frontiers of Economics in China    2022, 17 (1): 104-133.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-015-022-0005-9
摘要   PDF (0KB)

Based on the panel data on 276 prefectural-level cities from 2011 to 2018, this paper uses longitudinal fixed effects models, panel threshold effects and instrumental variables to explore the relationship between digital economy development and human capital structure advancement. In addition, this paper examines how the development of the digital economy is related to human capital levels. The results show that digital economy development significantly boosts human capital structure advancement, as well as low-level and high-level human capital. However, the effect of digital economy development on midlevel human capital is not statistically significant. In terms of heterogeneity, we find that digital economy development significantly promotes human capital structure advancement in eastern and central-western regions of China, as well as in core and peripheral cities. Effects on the various levels of human capital show significant differences. Furthermore, digital economy development has a positive effect on human capital structure when industrial structure advancement is low. Past a certain threshold, however, the effect reverses. This paper suggests that each region should accelerate the development of digital infrastructure, rationally promote industrial structure advancement and boost the effectiveness of human resources to achieve high-quality economic development.

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Digital Economy Development, Institutional Quality and Upstreamness of Global Value Chains
QI Junyan, REN Yida
Frontiers of Economics in China    2022, 17 (1): 24-57.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-015-022-0002-8
摘要   PDF (0KB)

By building a composite index for measuring national digital economy development and sectoral digital intensities, this paper derives metrics of industry-level digital economy penetration under the framework of specialization within global value chains (GVCs), systematically analyzes the mechanisms through which digital economy development affects GVCs upstreamness, and examines the moderating effect of institutional quality. The study shows that different dimensions of digital economy development significantly boost GVCs upstreamness, a conclusion that holds even after accounting for endogeneity through dynamic panel models with instrumental variables based on past data. Further research shows that technological innovation capabilities and resource allocation efficiency have gradually become important channels for digital economy development to boost GVCs upstreamness. Adding indicators on institutional quality reveals that greater institutional quality not only directly promotes GVCs upstreamness but also reinforces the impact of digital economy development on higher GVCs positioning.

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How Digital Economy Affects High-Quality Economic Development: Based on International Comparison
LIU Jiaqi, RU Shaofeng
Frontiers of Economics in China    2022, 17 (1): 87-103.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-015-022-0004-2
摘要   PDF (0KB)

This paper estimates the size of the digital economy in 38 countries between 2005 and 2018 and conducts an empirical study on this foundation. The results show that the digital economy has a significant role in promoting high quality economic development, primarily through industrial digitalizaion. Further research shows regional heterogeneity in the impact of the digital economy, which is greater in developed countries. Analysis of the underlying mechanisms shows that the digital economy promotes high-quality economic development in both developed and developing countries by improving technological efficiency and technological progress. However, the effect of technological progress in developing countries is clearly weaker than that in developed countries. In addition, scale efficiency in developing countries are not strengthened by the digital economy. Therefore, high-quality economic development requires the digital transformation of traditional industries and promoting their integration with digital technologies.

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The Path and Threshold Effect of Digitalization on the Competitiveness of China's Manufacturing Export
YAO Zhanqi
Frontiers of Economics in China    2022, 17 (1): 134-163.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-015-022-0006-6
摘要   PDF (0KB)

Since its traditional comparative advantages are on the wane, China should use digital economy to enhance its competitiveness of manufacturing export. Based on microscopic data of various regions in China from 2013 to 2020, this paper studies the relationship between digital economy and China’s competitiveness of manufacturing export, the internal mechanism of their influence, and the boundary conditions for the establishment of the relationship between digital economy and competitiveness of manufacturing export. Our conclusions include that: there is a significant positive spatial correlation between digital economy and export competitiveness; digital economy can not only enhance the export competitiveness of the region, but also have a positive impact on that of adjacent regions; innovation efficiency, the accumulation of human capital and synergistic agglomeration exerts a mediating effect when digital economy impacts China’s export competitiveness; and with the share of import trade as the threshold variable, the facilitating effect of digital economy on the export competitiveness of the western region is lower than that of the eastern region before the threshold, but significantly higher than that of the eastern , central and northeastern regions as well as the whole country after the threshold. Therefore, China should vigorously promote the construction of new digital infrastructure in the western region, and give full play to the role of new digital infrastructure in promoting trade upgrade. Through the improvement of human capital quality, the centralized development of digital economy and the overall improvement of innovation efficiency, we should gradually improve the international competitiveness of China’s export enterprises.

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Global Value Chains in the Era of Digital Economy: Trends, Risks and Countermeasures
YANG Zhen, CHEN Jin, LI Jizhen
Frontiers of Economics in China    2022, 17 (1): 1-23.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-015-022-0001-1
摘要   PDF (0KB)

The new technological revolution has not only created the digital economy, but has also accelerated the digital transformation of global value chains (GVCs). Digital technologies have reshaped the specialization within global value chains by reducing costs, enabling industrial chains and increasing added value in exports. However, GVCs also face salient risks in the digital economy era, as reflected in their spatial layouts. The enabling effect of digital technologies has led to the shortening and reshoring of global value chains. In value chain governance, dominant countries have imposed technological embargoes on ascendant countries, depriving them of key technologies. In the distribution of value, the imbalances in the specialization within GVCs and digital divides have aggravated global economic inequities. Given the new characteristics and risks of GVCs in the era of the digital economy, as well as the “dual circulation” development paradigm, China’s industrial chains and firms moving up the GVCs need to regard data, the fifth type of production factor, as a key to the enabling effect of the digital economy on industries. These measures will advance the digital transformation of traditional industries and the development of the digital industry, as well as allow industrial chains and innovation chains to work in tandem to facilitate favorable domestic circulation. At the firm level, enterprises should further develop endogenous innovation capacity to become leaders in innovation and free themselves from dependence on foreign sources for key technologies.

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The Impact of Digital Economy Development on the Industrial Structure Upgrading: A Study Based on Grey Relational Entropy and Dissipative Structure Theory
CHEN Xiaodong, YANG Xiaoxia
Frontiers of Economics in China    2022, 17 (1): 58-86.   https://doi.org/10.3868/S060-015-022-0003-5
摘要   PDF (0KB)

In recent years, the global booming of the digital economy has become a booster for China’s high-quality development. In the digital economy era, the digital upgrading of the industrial structure has become obvious. Based on a grey relational entropy model and dissipative structure theory, our empirical study reveals that the impact of the digital economy on the industrial structure varies over time. Since 2013, the digital economy has become an engine for China’s continuous industrial structure upgrading. By comparing the influence of the development of digital industrialization and the industrial digitization on industrial structure upgrading, we find that the former has a foundational leading role in the upgrading of the industrial structure, but the latter has a stronger impact. Therefore, the digital economy is an important driving force being able to lead the future upgrading of the industrial structure. China should rapidly promote the construction of new digital infrastructure and implement strategic spatial layouts for the development of digital industrialization while concurrently accelerating the industrial digitization. This will enable China’s economy to achieve higher-quality, more efficient and more secure development in the post-epidemic era. It is also an effective means for accelerating the development of a modern industrial system and will promote the upgrading of the economy.

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Digital Economy, Entrepreneurship, and High-Quality Economic Development: Empirical Evidence from Urban China
ZHAO Tao, ZHANG Zhi, LIANG Shangkun
Frontiers of Economics in China    2022, 17 (3): 393-426.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-015-022-0015-6
摘要   PDF (1023KB)

The paper discusses the effects of the digital economy on high-quality urban development and its mechanism. Theoretically, the digital economy can empower high-quality development by boosting entrepreneurial vitality. Empirically, the paper measures the overall level of the digital economy and high-quality development of the 222 Chinese cities at and above the prefecture level during 2011–2016, depicts the entrepreneurial vitality of the cities with the microscopic data of the business registration information and makes quantitative analysis on this basis. The result shows: Digital economy has remarkably improved high-quality development and this conclusion still exists after the robustness test selecting historical data as the instrumental variables and the Broadband China pilot policy as the quasi experiment. The analysis of the mechanism of action indicates that encouraging public entrepreneurship is an important mechanism of the digital economy to release the dividend of high quality development. Finally, thanks to the threshold model and the spatial model, it is found that the positive effect of the digital economy has the characteristics of nonlinear increment and spatial spillover of the “marginal effects.” The research of the paper stimulates the reasons for high-quality development and the understanding of the effects, mechanisms and regional differences of high-quality development empowered by the digital economy.

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The Governance of Local Government Debt from the Perspective of Fiscal and Financial Coordination: Evidence from Financial Markets
WU Wenfeng, HU Yue
Frontiers of Economics in China    2023, 18 (2): 145-170.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-017-023-0008-1
摘要   PDF (1241KB)

Theories based on fiscal guarantees cannot explain either the fact that the continuously decline in local fiscal resources has not significantly increased local government financing costs, or the fact that local government debt has been rising at a time of strict central government regulation. The theoretical and empirical analyses provided in this study show that it is the financial resources under local government control that provide the implicit guarantee for local government debt. Such financial resources lower local governments’ financing costs but have the potential to lead to the contagion of financial risk through local government to the financial sector. Therefore, to look at the question solely in terms of either fiscal or financial sector guarantees will not be sufficient to resolve the problem of local government debt. The central government needs to coordinate fiscal and financial policies under a joint management framework in a way that rationally disperses and resolves the risks attached to local government debt and avoids the assumption of excessive risk by either sector. At the same time, close attention should be paid to local financial institutions’ asset quality and their money market reputation to avoid the risk of contagion from local financial institutions to local public finance.

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Logic and Theory Construction of Advancing and Expanding Chinese Modernization
SUN Shaoyong
Frontiers of Economics in China    2022, 17 (4): 563-586.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-015-022-0023-9
摘要   PDF (647KB)

Advancing and expanding Chinese modernization is an inherent requirement and fundamental guarantee for building a great modern socialist country in all respects and realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. By systematically grasping the logical clue of advancing and expanding Chinese modernization, and realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, from the perspectives of theoretical implication, historical evolution, and practical position, the Communist Party of China (CPC) can clarify the direction and goals of advancing and expanding Chinese modernization, and deepen our understanding of the world modernization path based on advancing people-centered modernization in all respects by putting the people first, highlighting distinctive advantages of Chinese modernization by standing on Chinese own feet, and adhering to peaceful development, and analyze the underlying value concepts for advancing and expanding Chinese modernization. In terms of practical approach, Chinese modernization can be advanced in a stable and far-reaching manner, and new glories can be created only by further strengthening the guidance of the Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era on Chinese modernization, upholding and enhancing the CPC’s overall leadership in the whole process of Chinese modernization, promoting high-quality economic and social development to empower and strengthen the foundation of the stability and success of Chinese modernization, and actively seizing the strategic opportunity to advance Chinese modernization under the great changes unseen in a century, so that a solid inherent impetus and a supporting guarantee for the construction of a great modern socialist country in all aspects and the realization of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation can be provided.

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The Next Five Years (2022–2027) Will Be Crucial for Building a Modern Socialist Country in All Respects: Implications from the Report to the 20th National Congress of the CPC
LIU Wei
Frontiers of Economics in China    2022, 17 (4): 549-562.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-015-022-0022-2
摘要   PDF (454KB)

As pointed out in the Report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), the next five years (2022–2027) will be crucial for beginning to build a modern socialist country in all respects. Firstly, the next five years will be a period of historical transition in the central task of the CPC. The central task of the CPC will be to realize the Second Centenary Goal of building China into a great modern socialist country in all respects. At this crucial stage for getting our efforts off to a good start, China should understand and pursue the Five-Sphere Integrated Plan to advance the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation on all fronts through a Chinese path to modernization. Secondly, the next five years will be a period of deep reform in which strategic opportunities, risks and challenges are concurrent. Alongside a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation well underway, the new principal contradiction facing Chinese society, a historical transition in the central task of the CPC, and a shift in the international balance of power, profound and complex changes are taking place in China’s internal and external environment for development. Uncertainties and unforeseen factors are rising and must be dealt with appropriately. Thirdly, the next five years will be a key period of achieving China’s overall development objectives for 2035. It is a paramount stage of meeting the 14th Five-Year Plan goals, formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan goals, and realizing Chinese modernization by 2035. China should uphold the CPC’s overall leadership, follow the path of socialism with Chinese characteristics, apply a people-centered development philosophy, remain committed to deepening reform and opening up, and carry forward our fighting spirit. Fourthly, the next five years will be a crucial period of accelerating the creation of a new pattern of development and pursuing high-quality development. Chinese modernization should be advanced through a series of strategic initiatives, such as building a high-standard socialist market economy, modernizing the industrial system, propelling rural revitalization across the board, promoting coordinated regional development, and boosting high-standard opening up. Fifthly, the next five years will be an impact period of unprecedented downward pressure on the national economy under various factors and risks beating expectations. In order to achieve the 14th Five-Year Plan goals and the overall development objectives by 2035, it is necessary to defuse the threefold pressure composed of increasing demand shrinkage, supply shocks and flagging market expectations, as well as intensifying potential risks. To accomplish the main objectives and tasks for the next five years, it is necessary to observe objective laws, apply the new development philosophy, continue to pursue economic development as central task, adopt system-based thinking, take steady steps to sustain progress, and promote high-quality development in a scientific and effective manner.

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Digital Economy Enables High-Quality Economic Development: Theoretical Mechanisms and Empirical Evidence
GE Heping, WU Fuxiang
Frontiers of Economics in China    2022, 17 (4): 643-668.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-015-022-0027-7
摘要   PDF (1752KB)

Digital economy has become the primary motivation for high-quality economic development. Upon comprehensively analyzing the connotation of digital economy, this paper constructs an evaluation system from development environment, digital industrialization, industrial digitalization, and digital governance to measure China’s digital economy index from 2016 to 2018 using the entropy-based TOPSIS method. Also, based on the improved Feder dual sector model, this paper discusses the theoretical mechanism of digital economy promoting high-quality economic development directly and through improving economic efficiency and economic structure, and carries out an empirical test. According to findings, on the one hand, China is scaling up digital economy and accelerating digital transformation; on the other hand, the greater the likelihood that high-quality economic development is constrained by low economic efficiency and unreasonable economic structure, the greater the role of digital economy in promoting high-quality economic development. Therefore, this paper puts forward recommendations for China’s high-quality economic development, such as advancing new infrastructure construction, developing digital economy, improving economic efficiency and economic structure, and transforming the government governance model.

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High-Quality Development Trend and Path Choice of Specialized, Sophisticated, Distinctive and Novel SMEs
DONG Zhiyong, LI Chengming
Frontiers of Economics in China    2022, 17 (4): 591-614.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-015-022-0025-3
摘要   PDF (956KB)

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are key contributors to technological innovation. As China’s vanguard for self-reliance and strength in science and technology, specialized, sophisticated, distinctive and novel (SSDN) SMEs have grown into an important motivation for high-quality development, a key stabilizer for the new development paradigm, and a vital force for an innovation-driven China. In recent years, China has been ramping up support for SSDN SMEs, and raised the focus on their development to a new level. At present, some problems and obstacles are befalling the high-quality development of SSDN SMEs, such as imperfect innovation system and mechanism, weak basic research service capabilities, a digital divide in digital transformation, and insufficient vitality of collaboration among players in the innovation ecosystem. In the future, China should promote the high-quality development of SSDN SMEs from system and mechanism, basic input, business environment, and digital empowerment. Specifically, China should increase policy support to consolidate the institutional guarantee for innovative development, build more platforms to form a dynamic innovation ecology, enhance intellectual property protection to spur entrepreneurship, and ramp up upgrading and transformation for the quality and efficiency improvement of traditional enterprises.

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Promoting the Role of RCEP in Boosting the High-Quality Development of China’s Digital Economy
HONG Tao, TAO Sijia, LU Sihan, MA Tao
Frontiers of Economics in China    2022, 17 (3): 456-472.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-015-022-0017-0
摘要   PDF (969KB)

As the largest free trade agreement in the world at present, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has made provisions for cross-border e-commerce, regional trade cooperation, data and intellectual property protection, providing new opportunities for the digital economy development with its functions of optimizing factor resource allocation, accelerating the upgrading of industrial chains and value chains, and pushing close collaboration in international trade. This research consists of mechanism analysis, risk assessment and policy suggestions. First, it analyzes the mechanism of RCEP in promoting the development of the digital industry from three dimensions, namely dual-circulation of digital industry, spatial cooperation of digital economy and digital tariff guarantee, and explores the compatibility between the provisions of the RCEP agreement and the high-quality development of the digital economy. Second, it interprets the digital rules from the intention of digital rules, domestic knowledge legislation background of the parties, the effectiveness of digital regulation and coordination in the agreement, and the external environment; it analyzes the challenges that RCEP brings to China. Finally, this paper puts forward suggestions on how to promote high-quality development of China’s digital economy with RCEP.

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Internet, Technological Innovation and High-Quality Economic Development
YUE Yujun, MENG Miao, JI Min
Frontiers of Economics in China    2022, 17 (4): 697-712.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-015-022-0029-1
摘要   PDF (536KB)

Using the panel data of 29 provinces in China from 2015 to 2018, this paper analyzes the impact of the internet, technological innovation, and their interaction on high-quality economic development. As the results show, the internet and technological innovation promote economic growth efficiency, economic growth stability, industrial structure optimization, and sustainable development level, where technological innovation promotes more significantly but hinders the economic welfare level to some extent; the interaction between the internet and technological innovation has a significant positive correlation with high-quality economic development and strengthens the promotion of technological innovation on high-quality economic development; human capital plays a significant role in promoting all aspects of high-quality economic development, while fiscal expenditure has no significant impact on high-quality economic development. Therefore, the internet should be leveraged to drive technological innovation capacity, and better play the guiding role of the government.

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How Does Digital Economy Drive China’s Rural Revitalization?
HE Leihua, WANG Feng, WANG Changming
Frontiers of Economics in China    2023, 18 (1): 118-144.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-017-023-0007-4
摘要   PDF (1381KB)

Digital economy, a new driving force for China’s economic development, creates a good opportunity for rural revitalization. This paper begins with a theoretical analysis of the impact of the digital economy on rural revitalization. Based on panel data from 30 provinces and cities in China from 2011 to 2018, as well as measurement-based digital economy development Index and rural revitalization index, the empirical test is conducted of the driving effect, mechanism and heterogeneity of digital economy on rural revitalization. Results show that the digital economy has a significant driving effect on rural revitalization, a conclusion that still holds even after taking into account endogenous problems and conducting a series of robustness tests. Technological innovation and human capital constitute the important mechanism for the digital economy to drive rural revitalization. Furthermore, the digital economy has a spatial spillover effect on rural revitalization, that is, it can promote rural development in neighboring areas. As regards various dimensions of rural revitalization, the digital economy can significantly promote ecological livability, civilized rural style, effective governance and prosperity. But its impact on the industrial boom is yet to appear. The western region enjoys more digital economy dividends in rural revitalization are more significant than central and eastern regions. Rural revitalization requires the government to deepen the integration of the digital economy and agriculture and implement a differentiated digital economy development strategy.

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Industry Interaction, Structure Transformation and High-Quality Economic Development in China
SONG Pei, LI Lin, BAI Xuejie
Frontiers of Economics in China    2023, 18 (4): 467-503.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-017-023-0028-5
摘要   PDF (1758KB)

Industry interaction is becoming an important approach to promoting high-quality economic development. In this paper, the multi-sector general equilibrium model is developed to clarify the theoretical mechanism among industry interaction, structure transformation, and high-quality economic development; the empirical tests are carried out based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2017; and the empowerment paths for digital technologies are explored to drive high-quality economic development. The findings are as follows. (1) The industry interaction can promote high-quality economic development in China on the whole, but it shows a significant imbalance and a healthy two-way promotion mode have not been formed. (2) The impact of industry interaction on high-quality economic development is significantly heterogeneous at the sector and regional levels. (3) The current unhealthy industry interaction may widen the productivity gap between manufacturing and service sectors, and transform China’s economic into service-oriented structure, thus leading the economic development to a vicious circle of “low efficiency to low-end servitization and further to lower efficiency,” and hindering the sustainability of high-quality economic development. (4) Digital technologies can break the development dilemma and achieve high-quality economic development by alleviating structural contradictions, boosting healthy industry interaction, and narrowing the productivity gap among sectors. The conclusions provide empirical evidence for the government to promote the integration of advanced manufacturing and modern service sectors and achieve high-quality economic development.

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The Mechanism and Path for Digital Economy to Foster New Drivers for High-Quality Economic Development in China
REN Baoping, LI Peiwei
Frontiers of Economics in China    2022, 17 (4): 669-696.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-015-022-0028-4
摘要   PDF (572KB)

As traditional drivers fade, cultivating new drivers has become the key to the high-quality development of China’s economy. In the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, the digital economy plays a strategic role in promoting high-quality economic development in China, by using data as a new key production factor and innovation as the driving force, and driving impetus change, efficiency change and quality change to increase total factor productivity. The mechanism for the digital economy to cultivate new drivers for the high-quality development of China’s economy is through four dimensions, namely allocation optimization, economies of scale, industrial integration, and innovation-driven growth. In the context of the digital economy, accelerating the cultivation of new drivers calls for the following efforts: speeding up digital innovation and promoting the driving force change, efficiency change, and quality change; accelerating the process of digital industrialization and pushing advanced industrial basic capabilities; using industrial digital transformation to promote the modernization of the industrial chain; and advancing the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry, and promoting the deep integration of the digital economy and the real economy.

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Monetary Policy, Liquidity and Bank Risk-Taking
JIANG Hai, ZHANG Xiaolin, TANG Shenfeng, CHEN Chuanglian
Frontiers of Economics in China    2023, 18 (2): 171-197.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-017-023-0009-8
摘要   PDF (1606KB)

The great impact of monetary policy on bank risk-taking, facilitated by a liquidity mechanism, significantly complicates the macro-prudential supervision process. Surprisingly, limited scholarly research has delved into this particular issue. Hence, in this paper, the liquidity variable is introduced into the dynamic linear model to depict the liquidity mechanism by which monetary policy affects bank risk-taking. Based on micro-data from 133 commercial banks in China, this paper empirically tests using systematic Gaussian mixture models estimation and a panel smooth transition regression model. The findings reveal that while monetary policy does not exhibit a significant risk-shifting effect. A marked liquidity transmission effect, however, is observed, whereby easy monetary policy noticeably exacerbates bank risk-taking. This impact becomes more pronounced as liquidity levels improve. The most significant negative impact of monetary policy on bank risk-taking occurs when bank liquidity reaches approximately 43%. Moreover, when banks maintain high levels of liquidity, the statutory deposit reserve ratio exerts a greater regulatory effect than other monetary policy tools. Contractionary monetary policy imposes noticeably weaker restraints than expansionary monetary policy, particularly in banks with higher liquidity levels. Moreover, the interplay between monetary policy and bank risk-taking is contingent upon not just the liquidity level of banks, but also their asset size and capital adequacy.

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The Formation Mechanism of Systemic Financial Risk under External Shocks
FANG Yi, JING Zhongbo
Frontiers of Economics in China    2023, 18 (2): 198-243.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-017-023-0010-2
摘要   PDF (7330KB)

By incorporating both the fire sales contagion mechanism and the bankruptcy contagion mechanism into a bank network model, this paper examines how risks are generated under dynamic shocks. In particular, this paper constructs systemic risk indicators suitable for analyzing multiple rounds of contagion under different shocks (time dimension) and from institutions and assets (spatial dimension). Indicators that measure the indirect relevance between institutions and between assets are also innovatively built. It is found that due to deleveraging or bankruptcy among a large number of banks, the systemic risk exhibits an upward trend marked by intermittent jumps under varying intensities of shocks. Risks are generated mainly through the fire sales contagion mechanism of deleveraging under small shocks, and through the bankruptcy contagion mechanism under large shocks. In terms of influencing factors, a stronger indirect relevance, a lower leverage skewness and a higher leverage level in the banking system lead to higher risks. In particular, the influence of leverage skewness on systemic risk is stronger than that of leverage level.

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Rural Revitalization Enabled by Digital Transformation of Small and Medium Sized Rural Banks and Double Chain Linkage Model Innovation
ZHU Taihui, ZHANG Yutong
Frontiers of Economics in China    2023, 18 (2): 244-267.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-017-023-0011-9
摘要   PDF (1523KB)

How small and medium-sized (SMS) rural banks, as the main banks offering rural financial services, serve all-round rural revitalization is a vital realistic and policy issue for the time being. Now, SMS rural banks are confronted with many shortcomings in serving rural revitalization due to dull financial service supply chain circulation and lack of coordination with the rural industry supply chain. The research based on survey data and typical cases shows that the key to solving these problems is to realize a double chain linkage of the financial service supply chain and the rural industry supply chain: The financial service supply chain and the rural industry supply chain should make use of their common infrastructure, share the digital technology capacity and data handling capacity and promote the linkage of customers, channels and scenarios in all links of the two supply chains in a bid to realize mutual promotion and improve the quality and efficiency of the two chains and hence fuel the all-round rural revitalization through industrial revitalization. Double chain linkage can be achieved through five major effective means: in terms of data, collaborating with digital rural governance and strengthening data collection and utilization; in terms of industry, collaborating with core entity enterprises and strengthening the supply chain financial service capacity; in terms of ecology, collaborating with internet technology companies and enhancing ecological, scenario and technological enabling; in terms of channels, collaborating with rural service and focusing on channel linkage, offline network, mobile services and village financial officers, etc.; and in terms of cooperation, constructing the common infrastructure of SMS rural banks and boosting the efficiency of digital enabling innovation.

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The Evolution Course, Profound Connotation, and Advancing Path of Chinese Modernization
SHI Jianxun, YANG Luliuting
Frontiers of Economics in China    2023, 18 (2): 268-287.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-017-023-0012-6
摘要   PDF (583KB)

The Report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) decides to “comprehensively promote the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation through Chinese modernization” as a central task, listing nine essential requirements for Chinese modernization with the creation of a new form of human civilization as its goal. This paper analyzes the evolution of Chinese modernization led by the CPC and the pursuit of civilization, and reveals the inner connection and unity between Chinese modernization and the new form of human civilization. It is helpful to deeply understand the historical logic, realistic logic, and future logic of Chinese modernization, enabling better study and implementation of the spirit of the Report to the 20th National Congress of the CPC. Also, this paper boosts confidence in the path, theory, system, culture, and history of building a modern socialist country in an all-round way and promoting the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

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Study on Coupling Coordination between Sci-Tech Innovation and High-Quality Economic Development in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
CHEN Zhangxi, ZHUANSUN Guanhua
Frontiers of Economics in China    2022, 17 (4): 615-642.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-015-022-0026-0
摘要   PDF (1324KB)

Sci-tech innovation is an important measure for the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area to achieve high-quality economic development. Theoretically, there is a coupling coordination relationship between sci-tech innovation and high-quality economic development, and coordinating the relationship between the two is beneficial to building the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area into an international innovation and technology hub and promoting high-quality economic development. At present, the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area has seen a year-on-year increase in both the level of sci-tech innovation and the level of high-quality economic development, with a sound development trend. Its coupling coordination degree between sci-tech innovation and high-quality economic development has steadily improved from a slightly uncoordinated stage to a primarily coordinated stage, but the overall degree of coordination is still not high, with some gaps from realizing the excellently coordinated stage. From the perspective of spatial distribution, the internal development of the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area is unbalanced, with obvious differences in development level and coupling coordination degree among cities. The convergence analysis shows that the differences in the coupling coordination degree among the cities in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area have stabilized after narrowing during the study period. However, the difference among the cities with higher coupling coordination degrees tends to widen in recent years. Therefore, necessary measures should be taken to promote the coordination between sci-tech innovation and high-quality economic development in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area.

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Scientific Connotation, Intrinsic Relationship, and Strategic Key Points for Rural Revitalization under the Goal of Common Prosperity
ZHANG Qi, ZHUANG Jiakun, LI Shunqiang, KONG Mei
Frontiers of Economics in China    2023, 18 (1): 41-58.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-017-023-0003-6
摘要   PDF (909KB)

This paper analyzes rural revitalization under the goal of common prosperity. Firstly, on the basis of making clear what common prosperity is in the new era along with its connotation, the connotation of rural revitalization under the goal of common prosperity is systematically delved into six dimensions: subject, motivation, content, path, process, and goal. Secondly, the intrinsic relationship between common prosperity and rural revitalization is examined from the perspectives of rural revitalization, common prosperity, and development. Thirdly, grounded on theoretical analysis, this paper outlines strategic key points for rural revitalization under the goal of common prosperity upon applying designing principles to practice.

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Carbon Peaking, Carbon Neutrality and Green and Low-Carbon Development of China’s Economy
QIAO Xiaonan, School of Economics, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China
Frontiers of Economics in China    2022, 17 (2): 290-324.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-015-022-0011-8
摘要   PDF (784KB)

The successively proposed carbon peaking and carbon neutrality have not only set new goals for the green and low-carbon development of China’s economy, but also demonstrated China’s further determination and sense of responsibility for a greater contribution to address global climate change. Considering the importance of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the course of achieving the Second Centenary Goal (1949-2049), it is necessary for China to make scientific planning for the roadmap of carbon emission reduction, carbon peaking and carbon neutrality to ensure building a great modern socialist country under carbon constraints. More specifically, the optimization and realignment of energy structure, industrial structure, production and consumption structure, the rational planning of afforestation, and the vigorous development of global carbon emissions trading will be the core strategies for boosting green and low-carbon development of China’s economy.

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Coordinating Supply-Side Reform and Demand-Side Management
FANG Fuqian
Frontiers of Economics in China    2023, 18 (3): 309-323.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-017-023-0018-8
摘要   PDF (804KB)

In essence, understanding the relationship between supply-side structural reform and demand-side management requires grasping the interplay between supply and demand. Supply and demand are interdependent and interactive, and their equilibrium determines the equilibrium values of micro and macroeconomic variables. Focusing solely on either supply or demand, regardless of the time length, is one-sided. To promote supply-side structural reform, China should depend on demand and take a measured approach to its expansion. In the absence of demand, the supply-side structural reform would lose its direction and purpose. Enhancing demand-side management involves delving deeper into supply-side structural reform because the scale and growth of demand, alongside changes in demand structure, are fundamentally influenced by institutional factors. Hence, further reforming the systems and mechanisms that hinder the optimization of demand structure and the growth of demand is precisely what supply-side structural reform should entail.

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Understanding the Main Line, Characteristics and Practice Path of Historical Initiative: Under the Guidelines of the 20th National Congress of the CPC
ZHANG Yuesheng, TAN Yuxuan
Frontiers of Economics in China    2023, 18 (1): 1-20.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-017-023-0001-2
摘要   PDF (554KB)

Theoretically based on historical materialism, the historical initiative of the Communist Party of China (CPC) is a precious character of creating new prospects amid changing circumstances consciously and proactively to acquire benefits for Chinese people. Integrated into its centenary history and showing highlights in different historical periods, the CPC’s historical initiative features dialectical unity between problem orientation and mission pursuit, upholding fundamental principles and breaking new ground, regularity and consciousness, as well as the leadership of the CPC and the pioneering spirit of the people. To accomplish the Second Centenary Goal and advance national rejuvenation, the CPC will follow the path of socialism with Chinese characteristics under the guidance of Marxism, stay committed to achieving national rejuvenation, unite and rely on the people, and stimulate the spirit of innovation and creation, thereby pooling more proactive spiritual strengths to make greater contributions in the new era.

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The Goals of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality and China’s New Energy Revolution
WANG Yongzhong
Frontiers of Economics in China    2022, 17 (2): 325-344.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-015-022-0012-5
摘要   PDF (482KB)

Based on the full consideration of both domestic and global environments and conditions, the adherence to the conviction that lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets, and the comprehensive weighing of pros and cons, the Chinese government has made a major strategic decision to achieve the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, which is crucial to the overall green transformation of the economy and society and the long-term benefits of the Chinese nation. With the new energy revolution and energy mix diversification driven by the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, nonfossil energy sources centered on photovoltaic energy will gradually dominate the energy mix, while the status of electricity and hydrogen energy will be significantly enhanced and the consumption of coal and petroleum will decline significantly. Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals are both challenges and opportunities for China. Specific challenges are embodied in the large pressure of economic and energy restructuring, the rising manufacturing costs, the difficulties in withdrawing coal-fired power stations, the possibility of unstable grid operations due to large-scale integration of photovoltaic and wind power into the power distribution network, and the supply risks of key metals, while specific opportunities are emerging in the strong competitiveness of photovoltaic and wind power equipment, lower dependence on foreign petroleum and gas supply and accelerated low-carbon green transformation. China should strengthen the top-level design of the path to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, encourage innovation of green low-carbon technologies, accelerate economic and energy restructuring, strictly restrict the construction of new high-emission and energy-intensive projects, and steadily promote the adjustment and withdrawal of the existing high-emission and energy-intensive projects.

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The Effective Linkage of Consolidating and Expanding the Achievements in Poverty Alleviation with Rural Revitalization: Progress, Problems and Suggestions
GAO Qiang, ZENG Hengyuan
Frontiers of Economics in China    2023, 18 (1): 96-117.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-017-023-0006-7
摘要   PDF (754KB)

To promote rural revitalization on the basis of consolidating and expanding the achievements in poverty alleviation after fulfillment of the objectives and tasks of poverty alleviation, it requires not only a smooth transformation of the working system, but a the transfer and continuity of micro policies. As the local practice shows, since the focus of the “tri-agriculture” work has shifted, the local governments have carefully implemented the decisions and deployments of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC). In terms of the leadership system, system design, institutional teams, assessment mechanism and financial support, they have registered positive progress in the effective linkage of consolidating and expanding the achievements in poverty alleviation with rural revitalization. Meanwhile, they have been confronted in practice with the problems and difficulties of inadequate cognition of the effective linkage of the two strategies, incompatibilities of the responsibilities and capabilities of the departments at all levels, insufficient consideration of regional discrepancies, weak program guidance and assessmenting and openness to optimization of the poverty-alleviating assets management and utilization. It is advised to further deepen the cognition of linkage promotion, clarify the leadership system and assignment of responsibilities, differentiate the tempo and direction of linkage, strengthen the planning leadership and assessment application, and optimize the poverty-alleviating assets management and utilization mechanism to implement the effective linkage of the two strategies.

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