Please wait a minute...
Frontiers of Economics in China

ISSN 1673-3444

ISSN 1673-3568(Online)

CN 11-5744/F

Postal Subscription Code 80-978

Front Econ Chin    2013, Vol. 8 Issue (3) : 390-429    https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-002-013-0020-0
research-article
An Estimated DSGE Model for Business Cycle Analysis in China
Biao Gu1(), Jianfeng Wang2(), Jingfei Wu3()
1. School of Economics, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China; 2. Research Center of Applied Finance, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China; 3. School of Economics, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China
 Download: PDF(8273 KB)   HTML
 Export: BibTeX | EndNote | Reference Manager | ProCite | RefWorks
Abstract

A small-scale, but highly-stylized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is estimated by the maximum likelihood method using Chinese quarterly data. Model specifications and parameter equalities between various competing model variants are addressed by formal statistical hypothesis tests, while implications for business cycle fluctuations are evaluated via a variance decomposition experiment, second-moments matching, and some out-of-sample forecast exercises. It is highlighted that the monetary authority takes an aggressive stance to the current inflation pressure (there is a significant lagged response), while leaving less attention to changes in aggregate output. Variance decomposition reveals that large percentages of variations in real and nominal variables are explained by the highly volatile preference and potential output shock, respectively. When nominal and real frictions as well as additional shocks are included, overall our estimated model can successfully reproduce the stylized facts from actual data of Chinese business cycles and frequently can even outperform those forecasts from an unconstrained VAR.

Keywords business cycle analysis      Chinese economy      DSGE model      interest rate rule     
Corresponding Author(s): Biao Gu,Email:billgu@shu.edu.cn; Jianfeng Wang,Email:wjfruc@126.com; Jingfei Wu,Email:afeiwu@126.com   
Issue Date: 05 September 2013
 Cite this article:   
Biao Gu,Jianfeng Wang,Jingfei Wu. An Estimated DSGE Model for Business Cycle Analysis in China[J]. Front Econ Chin, 2013, 8(3): 390-429.
 URL:  
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/10.3868/s060-002-013-0020-0
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/Y2013/V8/I3/390
[1] Justin Yifu Lin. “One Belt and One Road” and Free Trade Zones—China’s New Opening-up Initiatives[J]. Front. Econ. China, 2015, 10(4): 585-590.
[2] Yanrui Wu. Productivity, Economic Growth and the Middle Income Trap: Implications for China[J]. Front. Econ. China, 2014, 9(3): 460-483.
[3] Jinwen Zhao, Hui Gao , . Impact of Asset Price Fluctuation on China’s Monetary Policy: An Empirical Analysis Based on Quarterly Data, 1994–2006[J]. Front. Econ. China, 2010, 5(1): 69-95.
[4] GONG Gang , GAO Jian. Monetary policy under fixed exchange regime: A study on the future monetary policy in China[J]. Front. Econ. China, 2008, 3(2): 169-208.
[5] Gong Liutang, Xie Danyang. Factor Mobility and Dispersion in Marginal Products: A Case on China[J]. Front. Econ. China, 2006, 1(1): 1-13.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed