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Frontiers of Economics in China

ISSN 1673-3444

ISSN 1673-3568(Online)

CN 11-5744/F

Postal Subscription Code 80-978

Front. Econ. China    2020, Vol. 15 Issue (3) : 355-379    https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-011-020-0015-4
Orginal Article
Quantitative Analysis of the COVID-19 Pandemic Shock to Household Consumption in China
Lei Ning1(), Yuqin Wang2()
1. Institute for Advanced Research, and Key Laboratory of Mathematical Economics of Ministry of Education, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200433, China
2. Institute for Advanced Research, and Key Laboratory of Mathematical Economics of Ministry of Education, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200433, China
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Abstract

We study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic shock on household consumption in China. Using household survey data, we find that the proportion of liquidity-constrained households increases quickly, but the constraint levels vary across distinct groups. We build a heterogeneous agent life cycle incomplete market model to analyze the long-run and short-run effects of the pandemic shock. The quantitative results reveal a slow recovery of consumption due to three reasons: hiking unemployment rate, declining labor productivity, and worsening income stability. The hiking unemployment rate plays the key role in households’ consumption reduction since it simultaneously leads to a negative income effect and upsurging precautionary saving motives. Our paper highlights the importance of maintaining a stable labor market for faster recovery.

Keywords COVID-19      pandemic shock      household consumption      labor market      heterogeneousagentmodel      liquidity constraint      unemployment      quantitative analysis     
Issue Date: 28 September 2020
 Cite this article:   
Lei Ning,Yuqin Wang. Quantitative Analysis of the COVID-19 Pandemic Shock to Household Consumption in China[J]. Front. Econ. China, 2020, 15(3): 355-379.
 URL:  
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/10.3868/s060-011-020-0015-4
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/Y2020/V15/I3/355
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