Frontiers of Economics in China

ISSN 1673-3444

ISSN 1673-3568(Online)

CN 11-5744/F

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Research articles
Transportation, Economic Growth and Spillover Effects: The Conclusion Based on the Spatial Econometric Model
Angang Hu, Shenglong Liu,
Front. Econ. China. 2010, 5 (2): 169-186.

Abstract   PDF (491KB)
This paper tests the external spillover effects of the transportation on China’s economic growth from the theoretical and the empirical perspectives. Based on a logarithm production model, this study first proves the existence of the positive externality in the transportation. After that, the authors collect the data of the 28 provinces in China from 1985 to 2006, and use a relatively advanced spatial econometric method to test the positive externality. After constructing a spatial econometric model, the authors use the Maximum Likelihood (ML) method to estimate this model. According to the theoretical model and the empirical results, this article reaches the following conclusion: (1) The positive externalities in the transportation do exist; (2) From 1985 to 2006, the transportation contributed 24.8 billion yuan to China’s GDP every year: in this 24.8 billion yuan, 19.6 billion comes from the direct contribution and the rest 5.2 billion comes from the external spillover effects; (3) The summation of the direct contribution and the external spillover effects to the economic growth is on average 13.8% every year.
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The Model and Empirical Estimation of the Optimal Flexibility of RMB Exchange-Rate Regime: A Study Based on the Price-Stabilization
Xiaohui Liu , Conglai Fan,
Front. Econ. China. 2010, 5 (2): 187-209.

Abstract   PDF (592KB)
Under the Mundell-Fleming-Dornbusch (M-F-D) framework, the paper develops a stochastic model to study the optimal choice of RMB exchange rate regime based on two objectives, namely the exchange rate stabilization and price stabilization. The paper finds that different policy objectives will lead to different optimal choices of RMB exchange-rate regime. If the central bank aims to stabilize the price level, the optimal choice would be a certain type of intermediate regime, or the optimal choice would be a fixed one if it aims to stabilize the RMB exchange rate. Based on the model, the paper empirically estimates China’s open economy parameters and uses them to estimate the optimal flexibility of RMB exchange rate regime. The paper points out that China should allow more exchange rate changes to absorb its foreign exchange market pressure in order to stabilize the general price level, which indicates that China should move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime.
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The Internal and External Equilibrium Exchange Rate of RMB: 1982–2010
Yizhong Wang ,
Front. Econ. China. 2010, 5 (2): 210-231.

Abstract   PDF (674KB)
This paper estimates fundamental equilibrium exchange rate of RMB based on internal and external balance of China’s economy. The findings indicate that RMB real exchange rate is overvalued in the period of 1982–1991, but the extent of the undervaluation has an enlarging trend since 2004. Then, we put forward a new theory called “Prior Equilibrium Exchange Rate” and apply it to RMB, finding that real effective exchange rate of RMB need to be appreciated about 20% between 2008 and 2010, and the appreciation range of bilateral nominal exchange rate between RMB and the world’s key currencies depends on the objective functions of the government. Policy implication indicates that decision makers need to refer to equilibrium exchange rate which is derived from different theories and to make great efforts to adjust it towards equilibrium level and establish RMB “Prior Equilibrium Exchange Rate.” Meanwhile, policy- makers should implement a potential objective interval system of exchange rate appreciation. The appreciation range of bilateral exchange rate of RMB against USD from 2008 to 2010 may be set between 6% to 10%.
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The Taylor Rules and Macroeconomic Fluctuation in China: 1994–2006
Qiong Li, Zhiwei Wang,
Front. Econ. China. 2010, 5 (2): 232-253.

Abstract   PDF (706KB)
The correlation and controllability of money supply as the intermediate object of monetary policy is gradually weakening, the argument that interest rate substitutes the money supply for the alternative object is hotly discussed. According to the Taylor rule and its extensions, this paper has a positive analysis on the efficiency of Taylor-type rules in China through historical analysis, policy reaction function approach and co-integration technology of time series analysis. This paper draws a conclusion that Taylor rule is unstable in China, and less correlation can be found between interest rate and the output gap, and the central bank focus on the inflation target rather than economic growth. Therefore, the central bank should abide by the simple rule of inflation targeting.
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A Study on KLR Financial Crisis Early-Warning Model
Jianping Shi, Yu Gao ,
Front. Econ. China. 2010, 5 (2): 254-275.

Abstract   PDF (1136KB)
The financial crisis early-warning models were improved gradually with the continued regional financial crises that provided a wealth of empirical data by the end of last century. However, none of the crisis early-warning models correctly predicted the global financial crisis in 2008. Previous researches show the KLR model have better performance, so we reviewed the crisis early-warning system based on the KLR model using the recently data. This paper first tested the KLR model, and made some amendments based on the actual economic environment. Then we re-test the modified model, which show an improved performance. At last, the future crisis probabilities of some selected countries are predicted by using the amendatory model.
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Do Environmental Regulations Influence the Competitiveness of Pollution-Intensive Products?
Yang Lu ,
Front. Econ. China. 2010, 5 (2): 276-298.

Abstract   PDF (1040KB)
According to “Pollution Haven Effect”, in order to circumvent stringent environment standards, polluting industries in developed countries will be chosen to locate into developing countries; another way is that developed countries increase imports of pollution-intensive products instead of producing by their own, both of which can contribute to the changes of comparative advantages in the past 30 years. Since 1990s, many scholars have paid special attention on whether environmental regulations affect the trade patterns or not, but the conclusions are ambiguous. This paper, based on the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) model and using 95 and 42 countries sample data in year of 2005, is an empirical analysis which shows that: (1) according to the estimated results based on the “environmental governance” index calculated by CIESIN, environmental regulations do not change the comparative advantages of five types of pollutionintensive goods; (2) On the other hand, when the per capita income is considered as an endogenous indicator of environmental regulation, environmental regulation will significantly promote the comparative advantages in chemical products, iron and steel products and paper products, though environmental regulations do not take any influence on non-metallic minerals products and non-ferrous metals products. I think that appropriate level of environmental regulation can promote a comparative advantage in pollution-intensive goods.
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Microeconomic Analysis on the Growth of Trade Volume in China: 1978–2007
Fuxiang Wu , Zhibiao Liu ,
Front. Econ. China. 2010, 5 (2): 299-324.

Abstract   PDF (690KB)
The gravity equation is usually employed by researchers in the field of international trade to explain the growth of a country’s imports and exports volume, especially the manufactured goods. But in China, variables in the model, such as exchange rate, tariff, transportation cost, and spatial distance etc., are not sufficient to explain the riddle of China’s growth in trade volume. In fact, this growth in China’s trade volume is owing to the disintegration of production in the process of economic globalization, to the multinational corporations’ (MNC) vertical outsourcing of their manufacturing processes and procedures, and to the timely readjustment of Chinese enterprises on their strategies of participating in the international intra-product specialization. In this paper we establish an equilibrium model of intra-product specialization dominated by MNCs, and do some empirical tests on the growth in trade volume in China by using the variables including technological conditions of trade, similarity of economies, policy conditions of trade, disintegration of production and level of per capita capital equipment. The empirical results support our basic judgments.
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Spatial Externalities and Regional Income Inequality: Evidence from China’s Prefecture- Level Data
Xiuyan Liu , Xingmin Yin ,
Front. Econ. China. 2010, 5 (2): 325-338.

Abstract   PDF (691KB)
Based on panel data of 282 prefectures in China from 1999 to 2004; we explore the relationship between market potential, employment density and per capita GDP by using a dynamic panel data approach. It is found that the externalities arising from market potential and employment density have a positive and significant effect on local income. Moreover, both absolute and standardized elasticity of market potential externalities are pronounced, which suggests that market potential has a greater impact on regional disparity.
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8 articles