Measuring the NAIRU — A Structural VAR Approach

doi:10.1007/s11459-011-0123-7

Front Econ Chin

2011, Vol. 6

Issue (1) : 76-91 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11459-011-0123-7

research-article

Measuring the NAIRU — A Structural VAR Approach

Hongmei Zhao¹(

), Vincent Hogan²(

)

1. Institute of Econometrics and Statistics, School of Economics, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China; 2. School of Economics, University College Dublin, Dublin 4, Ireland

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Abstract

This paper calculates the NAIRU for the US in a framework that allows inflation and unemployment to be jointly endogenous. We define the NAIRU as being the component of actual unemployment that is uncorrelated with inflation in the long run. We use a structural VAR to estimate the NAIRU and core inflation simultaneously and with greater precision than most of the previous literature. Our results show that the NAIRU fell dramatically at the end of the 1990s from 6.7% before 1997 to 5.2% afterwards.

Keywords NAIRU inflation unemployment VAR

Corresponding Author(s): Hongmei Zhao,Email:hongmeizhao@nankai.edu.cn; Vincent Hogan,Email:vincent.hogan@ucd.ie

Issue Date: 05 March 2011

Cite this article:

Hongmei Zhao,Vincent Hogan. Measuring the NAIRU — A Structural VAR Approach[J]. Front Econ Chin, 2011, 6(1): 76-91.

URL:

https://academic.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/10.1007/s11459-011-0123-7
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/Y2011/V6/I1/76

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