Driving factors of urban land growth in Guangzhou and its implications for sustainable development

doi:10.1007/s11707-018-0692-1

Front. Earth Sci.

2019, Vol. 13

Issue (3) : 464-477 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-018-0692-1

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Driving factors of urban land growth in Guangzhou and its implications for sustainable development

Xuezhu CUI¹, Shaoying LI²(

), Xuetong WANG¹, Xiaolong XUE¹

¹. School of Management, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510000, China
². School of Geographical Science, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510000, China

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Abstract

Since 2000, China’s urban land has expanded at a dramatic speed because of the country’s rapid urbanization. The country has been experiencing unbalanced development between rural and urban areas, causing serious challenges such as agricultural security and land resources waste. Effectively evaluating the driving factors of urban land growth is essential for improving efficient land use management and sustainable urban development. This study established a principal component regression model based on eight indicators to identify their influences on urban land growth in Guangzhou. The results provided a grouping analysis of the driving factors, and found that economic growth, urban population, and transportation development are the driving forces of urban land growth of Guangzhou, while the tertiary industry has an opposite effect. The findings led to further suggestions and recommendations for urban sustainable development. Hence, local governments should design relevant policies for achieving the rational development of urban land use and strategic planning on urban sustainable development.

Keywords driving factors urban land growth principal component regression land management policy sustainable development Guangzhou

Corresponding Author(s): Shaoying LI

Just Accepted Date: 02 March 2018 Online First Date: 13 April 2018 Issue Date: 15 October 2019

Cite this article:

Xuezhu CUI,Shaoying LI,Xuetong WANG, et al. Driving factors of urban land growth in Guangzhou and its implications for sustainable development[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2019, 13(3): 464-477.

URL:

https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/10.1007/s11707-018-0692-1
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/Y2019/V13/I3/464

Variables	Symbols	Definitions/calculate method
Urban land use	Y	A measurement of urban construction land area that represents the urban land use scale and its growth, it is defined by the city build-up area (^{Zhang et al., 2011}; ^{Zhu et al., 2014})
Macro-economic? development	X₁	A measurement of the economic development of a city, it is usually quantified as GDP. The relationship between economic growth (GDP) and urban land use has been proven to exist (^{Cui, 2007})
Strength of foreign direct investment (FDI)	X₂	A measurement of the strength of FDI, it can be calculated by the proportion of the absolute values of FDI account to GDP (^{Gao et al., 2014})
Secondary industry development	X₃	One of the measurements of industry structure change in particular time intervals. It can be calculated by the proportion of the second industry as a share of GDP (^{Gu et al., 2009}; ^{Meng et al., 2011})
Tertiary industry development	X₄	One of the measurements of the industry structure change in particular time intervals. It can be calculated by the proportion of the tertiary industry as a share of GDP (^{Gu et al., 2009}; ^{Meng et al., 2011})
Population	X₅	A measurement of the urban population that reflects urban land demand during the urbanization process. Rural inhabitants choose to move to urban areas, causing an increase in the demand for urban land (^{Yuan, 2005})
Strength of fixed asset investment	X₆	A measurement of the fixed asset investment, it is one of the influencing factors that improves urban infrastructure and attracts population (^{Xu et al., 2006})
Urban rail transit development	X₇	A measurement of the public traffic in large cities, it is calculated by rail transit capacity. It can be considered an influencing factor that affects urban growth (^{Li and Yan, 2002}; ^{Aljoufie, 2014})
Government regulation on urban land use	X₈	A measurement of the government’s regulation on urban land use, it is calculated by the sales area of urban land (^{Cui et al., 2012}; ^{Bai et al., 2014})

Tab.1 Indexes of urban land use and its influencing factors

Fig.1 Administrative?district divisions of Guangzhou.

Fig.2 The urban build-up area and its changing rate in Guangzhou (1990?2013). Data source: China City?Statistical?Yearbook 1991?2014.

Fig.3 Spatial expansion of urban build-up land in Guangzhou 1990?2004. Data source: Aviation image data 1990?2004.

Tab.2 Correlation matrix of the influencing factors

Tab.3 Component matrix of the original variables

Tab.4 Results of the PCA regression model with Com-1 and Com-2

Fig.4 Industry land use distribution in Guangzhou. Data source: Urban master planning of Guangzhou 2011?2020.

Fig.5 Foreign auto makers distribution in Guangzhou. Data source: Urban master planning of Guangzhou 2011?2020.

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