Evaluation of climate change effects on extreme flows in a catchment of western Iran

doi:10.1007/s11707-019-0761-0

Front. Earth Sci.

2019, Vol. 13

Issue (3) : 523-534 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-019-0761-0

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Evaluation of climate change effects on extreme flows in a catchment of western Iran

Soheila SAFARYAN¹, Mohsen TAVAKOLI¹(

), Noredin ROSTAMI¹, Haidar EBRAHIMI²

¹. Department of Natural Resources, Ilam University, Ilam 69315516, Iran
². Department of Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, University of Kashan, Kashan 8731753153, Iran

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Abstract

Investigation of the relationship between catchment hydrology with climate is essential for understanding of the impact of future climate on hydrological extremes, which may cause frequent flooding, drought, and shortage of water supply. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of climate change on extreme flows in one of the subcatchments of the Ilam dam catchment, Iran. The changes in climate parameters were predicted using the outputs of HadCM3 model for up to the end of the current century in three time periods including 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. For A2 scenario, increases of 1.09°C, 2.03°C, and 3.62°C, and for B2 scenario rises of 1.18°C, 1.84°C, and 2.55°C have been predicted. The results suggest that for A2 scenario, the amount of precipitation would decrease by 12.63, 49.13, and 63.42 and for B2 scenario by 47.02, 48.51, and 70.26 mm per year. Also the values of PET for A2 scenario would increase by 51.18, 101.47 and 108.71 and for B2 scenario by 60.09, 89.86, and 124.32 mm per year. The results of running the SWAT model revealed that the average annual runoff would decrease by 0.11, 0.41, and 0.61 m³/s and for B2 scenario by 0.39, 0.47, and 0.59 m³/s. The extreme flows were then analyzed by running WETSPRO model. According to the results, the amounts of low flows for A2 scenario will decrease by 0.02, 0.21 and 0.33 m³/s and for B2 scenario by 0.19, 0.26 and 0.29 m³/s in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. On the other hand, the results show an increase of peak flows by 11.5, 19.1 and 48.7 m³/s in A2 scenario and 11.12, 25.93 and 48.1 m³/s in B2 scenario, respectively. Overall, the results indicated that an increase in return period leads to elevated levels of high flows and diminished low flows.

Keywords climate change extreme flows Ilam dam watershed Iran

Corresponding Author(s): Mohsen TAVAKOLI

Just Accepted Date: 06 May 2019 Online First Date: 06 September 2019 Issue Date: 15 October 2019

Cite this article:

Soheila SAFARYAN,Mohsen TAVAKOLI,Noredin ROSTAMI, et al. Evaluation of climate change effects on extreme flows in a catchment of western Iran[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2019, 13(3): 523-534.

URL:

https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/10.1007/s11707-019-0761-0
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/Y2019/V13/I3/523

Fig.1 Location of the study area in Ilam Province.

Tab.1 characteristics of stations

Tab.2 Output and time period of general circulation model data

Tab.3 The most important predictor variables of the studied station

Fig.2 Comparison of daily average of observed and simulated maximum temperature in calibration (a) and validation (b) period.

Fig.3 Comparison of the daily average of observed and simulated minimum temperature in calibration (a) and validation (b) period.

Fig.4 Comparison of the daily observed PET and simulated in calibration (a) and validation (b) period.

Fig.5 Comparison of the daily average of observed and simulated precipitation in calibration (a) and validation (b) period.

Fig.6 The changes in the average temperature of future periods comparing to the baseline under A2 (a) and B2 (b) emission scenarios.

Fig.7 PET changes in the future periods comparing to the baseline, under A2 (a) and B2 (b) emission scenarios.

Fig.8 Changes in precipitation for future periods comparing to the baseline, under A2 (a) and B2 (b) emission scenarios.

Fig.9 Simulated and observed hydrograph in calibration (a) and validation (b) period.

Tab.4 Model accuracy in calibration and validation period modeling

Fig.10 Predicted daily mean stream flow at Golgol gauging station for the baseline (1961–1990) and future periods (2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099) under A2 (a) and B2 (b) emission scenarios.

Fig.11 Simulated low flows changes under A2 (a) and B2 (b) emission scenario.

Fig.12 Simulated high flows under A2 (a) and B2 (b) emission scenario.

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