|
|
|
Modeling and simulation of industrial water demand
of Beijing municipality in China |
| Shouke WEI1,Shafi Noor ISLAM1,Alin LEI2, |
| 1.Department of Ecosystem
and Environmental Informatics, Brandenburg University of Technology,
03046 Cottbus, Germany; 2.The Changjiang Water
Resources Protection Institute, Wuhan 430051, China; |
|
|
|
|
Abstract Statistic and econometric regression models were established in this study to analyze and predict industrial water demand, water deficits, and their future uncertainty in Beijing—a Chinese city with a severe water stress problem. A forecasting model was selected based on a modeling evaluation by comparing predictions with observations. Four scenarios were designed to simulate and analyze the future uncertainty of industrial water demand and the water deficit of Beijing. The modeling results for industrial water demand suggested that Beijing industry would face a water deficit between 3.06 × 108 m3 in 2008 and 2.77 × 108 m3 in 2015, though its industrial water demand would decrease from 6.31× 108 m3 to 4.84 × 108 m3 during this period of time. Results from simulated scenario illustrated that, due to the extreme water scarcity situation, industry in Beijing would still face a serious water deficit problem even with a very optimistic scenario for the future.
|
| Keywords
water scarcity
water demand
water deficit
modeling
industry
scenario
Beijing
|
|
Issue Date: 05 March 2010
|
|
|
Wetzel G R. Limnology. 2nd ed. Fort Worth, Philadelphia,San Diego, New York, etc.: SaundersCollege Publishing, 1983
|
|
Wolf A T. Criteria for equitable allocations: The heart of international waterconflict. Natural Resources Forum, 1999, 23: 3–30
doi: 10.1111/j.1477-8947.1999.tb00235.x
|
|
UN-CSD. Review ofsectoral clusters, first phase: Human settlement and fresh water,freshwater resource. Report of the SecretaryGeneral of the UN, General Overview, 1994
|
|
Wang L Z. Cooperative water resources allocation among competing users. Dissertation for the Doctoral Degree. Waterloo: the University of Waterloo, 2005
|
|
Westmacott J R, Burn D H. Climate change effects onthe hydrologic regime within the Churchill-Nelson River Basin. Journal of Hydrology, 1997, 202: 263–279
doi: 10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00073-5
|
|
Leete R, Donnay F, Kersemaekers S, Schoch M, Shah M. Global Population and Water.UNFPA Report on Population and Development Strategies Series, Number6. New York: UNFPA, 2003
|
|
Wei S K, Gnauck A. Game theoretic approachesto model water conflicts on a river basin scale. In: Gnauck A, ed. Modelling and Simulationof Ecosystems. Aachen: Shaker-Verlag, 2007, 22–40
|
|
World Bank. WorldDevelopment Indicators 2002. 2002. www.worldbank.org
|
|
Wei S K. A survey on the situation of water resource and water managementin China. In: Gnauck A, ed. Modelling and Simulation of Ecosystems. Aachen: Shaker-Verlag, 2007, 171–186
|
|
Cao X G. Trend of water for industrial use in Beijing—Forecasting theindustrial water consumption. Beijing CityPlanning and Construction Review, 2003, 6: 32–37 (in Chinese)
|
|
Jia S F, Zhang S F. Response of industrial wateruse to water price rising in Beijing. Journalof Hydraulic Engineering, 2003, 4: 10–113 (in Chinese)
|
|
Wu P L, Zhang W. Water crisis and sustainablewater resource utilization in Beijing. Journal of Liaoning Technical University, 2005, 24(3): 436–439 (in Chinese)
|
|
Li S T, Xiu X Y. South-to-North Water Transferand China Development. Beijing: Economic Science Press, 2004 (in Chinese)
|
|
The Beijing Development and Reform Committee. Water Resources Protection and Use Planning for No. 11Five-year Plan of Beijing. Beijing: The Beijing Development and Reform Committee, 2006 (in Chinese)
|
|
Wei S K, Gnauck A. Water supply and water demandof Beijing—A game theoretic approach for modeling. In: Gómez J M, Sonnenschein M, Muller M, Welsch H, Rautenstrauch C, eds. Information Technologies in Environmental Engineering. Heidelberg: Springer Verlag, 2007, 525–536
doi: 10.1007/978-3-540-71335-7_51
|
|
Wei S K, Gnauck A. Simulating water conflictsusing game theoretical models for water resources management. In: Tiezzi E, Marques J C, Brebbia C A, Jørgensen S E, eds. Ecosystems and Sustainable Development VI. Southampton, Boston: WIT Press, 2007, 3–12
doi: 10.2495/ECO070011
|
|
The Beijing Statistical Bureau. Beijing Statistical Yearbooks (2001―2008). Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2001―2008
|
|
The China Statistical Bureau. China Statistical Yearbook (1996―2006). Beijing: China Statistic Press, 1996―2006
|
|
The Haihe River Water Resources Committee. The Haihe River Water Resource Bulletin (1998―2006). Tianjin: the Haihe River Water Resources Committee, 1998―2006 (in Chinese)
|
|
Jiang W L. The quandary and outlet of Beijing water resources. Science & Culture Science-Tech Waves, 2004, 1: 10–12 (in Chinese)
|
|
Ma D C. Analysis of public policy on alleviating the conflict between watersupply and water demand in Beijing. HeilongjiangScience and Technology of Water Conservancy, 2006, 1: 67–69 (in Chinese)
|
|
The Chanjiang Water Resources Protection Institute. Report on the Environmental Impacts of Middle Route ofSouth-to-North Water Transfer Project. 2005
|
|
Wei, S K. On the use of game theoretic models for water resources management. Dissertation for the Doctoral Degree. Cottbus: Brandenburg University of Technology, 2008
|
|
China Water Resources Administration. China Water Resource Bulletin (1998―2004). Beijing: China Water Resources Administration, 1998―2004 (in Chinese)
|
|
The Beijing Water Bureau. Beijing Water Resources Bulletin (2005). Beijing: Beijing Water ResourcesBureau, 2005 (in Chinese)
|
|
Viewed |
|
|
|
Full text
|
|
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
|
|
Cited |
|
|
|
|
| |
Shared |
|
|
|
|
| |
Discussed |
|
|
|
|
