Please wait a minute...
购物车 申请加入邮件组 English
高级检索 图表检索
Frontiers in Energy

ISSN 2095-1701

ISSN 2095-1698(Online)

CN 11-6017/TK

邮发代号 80-972

2019 Impact Factor: 2.657

热点文章  |  下载排行  |  浏览排行
在线投稿 免费RSS订阅
Frontiers in Energy  2019, Vol. 13 Issue (3): 551-570   https://doi.org/10.1007/s11708-019-0641-z
  本期目录
Will Germany move into a situation with unsecured power supply?
Harald SCHWARZ()
Energy Distribution and High Voltage Engineering, Faculty 3, Brandenburg University of Technology, Cottbus-Senftenberg 03013, Germany
 全文: PDF(6330 KB)   HTML
Abstract：

Together with a huge number of other countries, Germany signed the Paris Agreements in 2015 to prevent global temperature increase above 2°C. Within this agreement, all countries defined their own national contributions to CO2 reduction. Since that, it was visible that CO2 emissions in Germany decreased, but not so fast than proposed in this German nationally determined contribution to the Paris Agreement. Due to increasing traffic, CO2 emissions from this mobility sector increased and CO2 emission from German power generation is nearly constant for the past 20 years, even a renewable generation capacity of 112 GW was built up in 2017, which is much higher than the peak load of 84 GW in Germany. That is why the German National Government has implemented a commission (often called “The German Coal Commission”) to propose a time line: how Germany can move out of coal-fired power stations. This “Coal Commission” started its work in the late spring of 2018 and handed over its final report with 336 pages to the government on January 26th, 2019. Within this report the following proposals were made: ① Until 2022: Due to a former decision of the German Government, the actual remaining nuclear power generation capacity of about 10 GW has to be switched off in 2022. Besides, the “Coal Commission” proposed to switch off additionally in total 12.5 GW of both, hard coal and lignite-fired power plants, so that Germany should reduce its conventional generation capacity by 22.5 GW in 2022. ② Until 2030: Another 13 GW of German hard coal or lignite-fired power plants should be switched off. ③ Until 2038: The final 17 GW of German hard coal or lignite-fired power plants should be switched off until 2038 latest. Unfortunately the “Coal Commission” has not investigated the relevant technical parameter to ensure a secured electric power supply, based on German’s own national resources. Because German Energy Revolution mainly is based on wind energy and photovoltaic, this paper will describe the negligible contribution of these sources to the secured generation capacity, which will be needed for a reliable power supply. In addition, it will discuss several technical options to integrate wind energy and photovoltaic into a secured power supply system with an overall reduced CO2 emission.
Key words： CO2 reduction    mobility sector    renewable generation    coal commission    secured power generation capacity    reliable power supply    power-to-gas    power-to-heat
收稿日期: 2019-03-14      出版日期: 2019-09-04
Corresponding Author(s): Harald SCHWARZ   
 引用本文:   
. [J]. Frontiers in Energy, 2019, 13(3): 551-570.
Harald SCHWARZ. Will Germany move into a situation with unsecured power supply?. Front. Energy, 2019, 13(3): 551-570.
 链接本文:  
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fie/CN/10.1007/s11708-019-0641-z
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fie/CN/Y2019/V13/I3/551
Amount of gross power production/TWh Share of gross power production/%
Nuclear 76 11.7
Lignite 148 22.8
Hard coal 93 14.1
Natural gas 86 13.2
Mineral oil 6 0.8
Others 28 4.1
Renewables 218 33.3
Overall 655 100.0
Tab.1  
Renewable power production/TWh Share of renewable power production/%
Wind energy 106 16.3
Photovoltaic 40 6.1
Biomass 46 6.9
Hydro 20 3.1
Waste 6 0.9
Overall 218 33.3
Tab.2  
Fig.1  
Fig.2  
Amount of netpower production/TWh Share of netpower production/%
Nuclear 72.1–72.0 13.2–13.3
Lignite 134.0–131.2 24.2–24.3
Hard coal 83.3–75.7 15.7–14.0
Natural gas 46.6–40.0 8.4–7.4
Renewables 210–217.3 38.5–40.2
Overall 546–540 100
Tab.3  
Amount of renewable power production/TWh Share of renewable power production/%
Wind energy 103.6–109.8 18.8–20.2
Photovoltaic 38.4–45.8 7.0–8.5
Biomass 47.7–44.7 8.7–8.3
Hydro 20.4–17.0 4.0–3.2
Overall 210–217.3 38.5–40.2
Tab.4  
Fig.3  
Secured power generation capacity of conventional power station [7] Secured power generation capacity of renewable power generation [8]
Types Percentage/% Types Percentage/%
Nuclear power stations 93 Running water power stations 25
Lignite power stations 92 Biomass power stations 65
Hard coal power station 86 Wind generation off-shore 2
Natural gas (gas and steam units) 86 Wind generation on-shore 1
Natural oil 86 Photovoltaic 0
Fast starting gas turbines 42
Tab.5  
Fig.4  
Fig.5  
Fig.6  
Fig.7  
Fig.8  
CO2 emissions caused by combustion process
/(kg·MWh–1)		 CO2 emissions caused by exploitation and transport to Germany/(kg·MWh–1) Total CO2 emission from the global point of view/(kg·MWh–1)
Lignite 930 35 965
Hard coal (German Mix) 735 235 970
Natural gas with pipeline transport from Norway 335 365 700
Natural Gas with pipeline transport from Russia 335 445 780
US-shale gas with LNG transport 335 745 1080
Natural gas with LNG transport from Algeria 335 475 810
Natural gas with LNG transport from Katar 335 485 820
Tab.6  
Fig.9  
Fig.10  
Fig.11  
Fig.12  
Fig.13  
Fig.14  
Fig.15  
Fig.16  
Fig.17  
Fig.18  
Fig.19  
Fig.20  
Fig.21  
Border between Germany and Power demand in the related country, when Germany is on 100% of its annual power demand / % Transport capacity of cross border going high voltage lines/ GW
Poland 96 1.6
Czech Republic 91 2.8
Austria 92 6.0
Switzerland 90 4.0
France 84 4.7
Belgium 93 -
Netherlands 100 1.7
Denmark 96 2.2
Sweden 83 0.6
Tab.7  
Fig.22  
Fig.23  
Fig.24  
Fig.25  
Fig.26  
1 Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi). Gross electricity generation in Germany in 2017. 2019–01
2 Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi). Development of renewables-based electricity generation in Germany. 2019–01
3 Federal Statistical Office. Gross power production in Germany. 2019–01
4 Windmesse All in Wind. Strommix 2017. 2019–01
5 German National Grid Agency. National Grid Development Plan NEP 2030 Version 2019 of BNetzA. 2019
6 I S E Fraunhofer. Energy Charts. Net installed electricity generation capacity in Germany. 2019–01
7 DENA (German National Energy Agency). Brief analysis of power plant performance in Germany until 2020 (update). Berlin, 2010 (in German)
8 50Hertz. Energiewende Outlook 2035 together with it E-Bridge, FGH, RWTH Aachen, Prognos. 2016
9 I S E Fraunhofer. Energy charts. 2019–01, available at energy-charts.de website
10 Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi). Final Report of the German Coal Commission: Commission Growth, Structural Change and Employment. Berlin, Germany, 2019 (in German)
11 I S E Fraunhofer. Energy charts. 2019–01
12 Marcus Binder. Board of Directors LEAG. In: Energy Conference Neu-Ulm , Germany, 2019
13 J Keiler, H Häuser. Operator data base. IWET database. 2019
14 Federal Network Agency (BNetzA). Governmental Reports. 2019–01
15 Federal Network Agency (BNetzA). SMART electricity market data. 2019–01
16 Agora Energiewende. Agorameter. 2019–01
17 T Linnemann, G S Vallana. Wind energy in Germany and Europe. VGB PowerTech, 2018, 10: 68–85 (in German)
18 ENTSO-E. Transparency platform. 2019–01
19 Netzfrequenz info. 2019–01
20 E Thalman, B Wehrmann. What German households pay for power? 2019–01
21 Federal Agency of Environment (Umweltbundesamt). Development of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions by source category. 2019–01
22 H Schwarz. Grid Integration of Renewable Energies. In: VBI-Guide Renewable Energy. Berlin: German Association of Consulting Engineers, 2019
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited
  Shared   
  Discussed