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Frontiers of Economics in China

ISSN 1673-3444

ISSN 1673-3568(Online)

CN 11-5744/F

邮发代号 80-978

Frontiers of Economics in China  2015, Vol. 10 Issue (2): 335-364   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-004-015-0014-9
  本期目录
Is the Phillips Curve Valid in China?
Yang Ji1(),Ran Li2(),Jingxian Zou3()
1. National School of Development, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
2. National School of Development, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
3. National School of Development, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
 全文: PDF(2191 KB)  
Abstract

Is the “non-existence” of the Phillips curve in China a truth or just an illusion due to the deficiency of data? Should policy analysis follow the light of New-Keynesian or New-classical economics? These questions require empirical work on the Phillips curve, which has long been limited in China due to an inaccurate unemployment rate and unreliable estimated output gap. Instead of the insignificant or self-contradicting results in previous work, this paper puts forward a significant estimation, creatively using the vacancy-jobseeker ratio instead of the unemployment rate. It is suggested that a robust Phillips curve cannot be ignored and New-Keynesian economics should be employed in policy analysis in the short run.

Key wordsPhillips curve    expected inflation    unemployment rate    China
出版日期: 2015-06-19
 引用本文:   
. [J]. Frontiers of Economics in China, 2015, 10(2): 335-364.
Yang Ji,Ran Li,Jingxian Zou. Is the Phillips Curve Valid in China?. Front. Econ. China, 2015, 10(2): 335-364.
 链接本文:  
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fec/CN/10.3868/s060-004-015-0014-9
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fec/CN/Y2015/V10/I2/335
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