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Frontiers of Economics in China

ISSN 1673-3444

ISSN 1673-3568(Online)

CN 11-5744/F

Postal Subscription Code 80-978

Front. Econ. China    2013, Vol. 8 Issue (4) : 571-591    https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-002-013-0029-3
Orginal Article
An Estimation of the Impact of Oil Shocks on Crude Oil Exporting Economies and Their Trade Partners
Farhad Taghizadeh Hesary1(),Naoyuki Yoshino2,Ghahraman Abdoli3,Asadollah Farzinvash4
1. School of Economics, Keio University, Tokyo 108-8345, Japan The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ), Tokyo 104-0054, Japan
2. School of Economics, Keio University, Tokyo 108-8345, Japan
3. Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran 141556445, Iran
4. Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran 141556445, Iran
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Abstract

This research evaluates the impact of oil price shocks on oil producing and consuming economies; we used a simultaneous equation framework for different countries with business relations. As expected, we found that oil-producers (here, Iran and Russia) benefit from oil price shocks. However contrary to previous findings, they also benefit from the indirect effect through their trade partners. For oil-consuming economies, the effects are more diverse. In some countries, output falls in response to an oil price shock, while some others seem to be relatively immune. Generally, those countries which trade more with oil producers gain indirect benefits via higher demand from oil-producers. For instance, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Italy, the US, the UK, and China get a negative direct effect and positive indirect effect from oil producing countries. This is exactly the result that we anticipated. India has both negative effects directly and indirectly and seems to suffer more in a positive oil price shock. For Japan, Spain, Switzerland and Turkey the results are reversed. They benefit from an oil shock directly and indirectly.

Keywords oil      macroeconomic      trade linked case      Iran      Russia     
Issue Date: 05 December 2013
 Cite this article:   
Farhad Taghizadeh Hesary,Naoyuki Yoshino,Ghahraman Abdoli, et al. An Estimation of the Impact of Oil Shocks on Crude Oil Exporting Economies and Their Trade Partners[J]. Front. Econ. China, 2013, 8(4): 571-591.
 URL:  
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/10.3868/s060-002-013-0029-3
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/Y2013/V8/I4/571
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