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Free-Trade Agreements in a Model of Trade, Migration and Politics |
John Douglas Wilson1( ), Ilkay Yilmaz2( ) |
1. Department of Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA 2. Department of Economics, Mersin University, Ciftlikkoy, Yenisehir 33342, Mersin, Turkey |
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Abstract This paper uses a probabilistic voting model to investigate voting for a free-trade agreement between a labor-abundant country and a capital-abundant country. Migration from the labor-abundant country to the capital-abundant country increases the probability of a free-trade agreement, with lower migration costs leading to more migration and a higher free-trade probability. On the other hand, if a lower probability of free trade is caused by an increased voter bias against free-trade candidates, then there is less migration. A dynamic extension of the model is also investigated.
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Keywords
free trade
migration
Heckscher-Ohlin
labor-abundant
capital- abundant
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Issue Date: 15 March 2018
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