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Front. Eng    2022, Vol. 9 Issue (3) : 358-372    https://doi.org/10.1007/s42524-022-0202-8
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Energy transition toward carbon-neutrality in China: Pathways, implications and uncertainties
Yong YANG1, Hui WANG2, Andreas LÖSCHEL3, Peng ZHOU2()
1. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China
2. School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, China
3. Ruhr-Universität Bochum, 44801 Bochum, Germany
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Abstract

Achieving carbon neutrality in China before 2060 requires a radical energy transition. To identify the possible transition pathways of China’s energy system, this study presents a scenario-based assessment using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model. China could peak the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions before 2030 with current policies, while carbon neutrality entails a reduction of 7.8 Gt CO2 in emissions in 2060 and requires an energy system overhaul. The assessment of the relationship between the energy transition and energy return on investment (EROI) reveals that energy transition may decrease the EROI, which would trigger increased energy investment, energy demand, and emissions. Uncertainty analysis further shows that the slow renewable energy integration policies and carbon capture and storage (CCS) penetration pace could hinder the emission mitigation, and the possible fossil fuel shortage calls for a much rapid proliferation of wind and solar power. Results suggest a continuation of the current preferential policies for renewables and further research and development on deployment of CCS. The results also indicate the need for backup capacities to enhance the energy security during the transition.
Keywords carbon neutrality      energy transition      uncertainty      EROI      LEAP     
Corresponding Author(s): Peng ZHOU   
About author:

Tongcan Cui and Yizhe Hou contributed equally to this work.
Just Accepted Date: 24 May 2022   Online First Date: 01 August 2022    Issue Date: 05 September 2022
 Cite this article:   
Yong YANG,Hui WANG,Andreas L?SCHEL, et al. Energy transition toward carbon-neutrality in China: Pathways, implications and uncertainties[J]. Front. Eng, 2022, 9(3): 358-372.
 URL:  
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fem/EN/10.1007/s42524-022-0202-8
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fem/EN/Y2022/V9/I3/358
Fig.1  Carbon emissions accounting framework.
Items Assumptions
Base year 2018
Projected years 2019–2060
GHGs Only anthropogenic CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion, bioenergy combustion, and industrial processes are considered
Energy technologies Most technologies are included, except for waste-based biofuels, synergetic fuels, and bioenergy with CCS
Electricity balance All electricity generated is integrated well, and storage is ignored
Transmission loss No loss is included, except for electricity
Input variables Collective effects of transformation, such as activity level, energy intensity, and structure, are used
Carbon sinka) Calculated based on the average amount of land carbon sink in China from 2009 to 2016b) and the projected growth of the Chinese forest stockc)
Tab.1  Key assumptions
Parameters 2018a) 2030 2040 2050 2060
Population (billion persons) BAUb) 13.95 14.50 14.49 14.02 13.33
CNSc) 13.95 14.37 13.82 12.94 11.75
Urbanization rated) (%) 59.58 70.00 75.00 80.00 80.00
Gross domestic product (GDP)e) (trillion yuan)f) 73.55 117.55 149.32 174.13 200.51
Carbon sink (Gt CO2e) 1.11 1.25 1.35 1.45 1.50
Tab.2  General projections
Key measures Related sectors Scenarios
BAU CNS
ELE All demand sectors The energy intensity decreases slightly, the share of electricity increases, and fossil fuels still dominates The energy intensity decreases drastically; Electricity will be the major fuel, except in Cement, Chemicals, Aviation, and Shipping
BHY Transportation: Road, Aviation, Shipping, and PipelineIndustries: Iron and Steel, Cement, Chemicals Share of biofuel is negligible;Share of hydrogen is below 10% in 2060 In 2060, the share of biofuel and hydrogen in:Aviation and Shipping > 70%;Other sub-sectors except Rail > 20%
NFT Electricity generation, Heat production, Oil and Gas exploitation In 2060:Installed capacity of fossil fuel power plants = 1610 GW;Share of coal in heat production = 40%;Share of natural gas in heat production = 41% In 2060:Installed capacity of fossil fuel power plants = 300 GW;Share of non-fossil heat sources = 47%;Less crude oil and natural gas will be produced
DEC All demand sectors Demand for products and service across all sectors changes following current trends Population < values under BAU;Demands in all sectors a) < values under BAU
DCCS Energy supply, Iron and Steel, Chemicals, Cement No CCS will be deployed In 2060, the penetration ratio of CCS in:Energy supply = 90%;Iron and Steel = 59%;Chemicals = 50%; Cement = 50%
Tab.3  Key measures under CNS
Key measures Main data sources and references
ELE Energy Transitions Commission: China 2050: A Fully Developed Rich Zero-carbon EconomyState Grid Corporation of China: China Energy & Electricity Outlook 2019Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization: Report on Carbon Neutrality in China before 2060
BHY IEA: Energy Technology Perspective 2020China Hydrogen Alliance: White Paper on China Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Industry 2019Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking: Hydrogen Roadmap Europe: A Sustainable Pathway for the European Energy Transition
NFT Several energy transition outlooks respectively published by IEA, Economic and Technological Research Institute of China National Petroleum Corporation, Energy Information Administration, Institute of Energy Economics Japan, and DNV-GL Group in 2020Shell: The Energy Transformation Scenarios
DEC Energy Transitions Commission: China 2050: A Fully Developed Rich Zero-carbon EconomyCorresponding data of European countries, like FranceResearch articles, such as Grubler et al. (2018)
DCCS Huabao Securities: Report on Carbon Neutrality in Iron and Steel IndustryBoston Consulting Group: Climate Plan for China
Tab.4  Main data sources and references for variables under CNS
Fig.2  Energy supply, demand, and intensity.
Fig.3  Carbon emission mitigation under different scenarios.
Fig.4  Carbon mitigation contributions of different sectors without regard to carbon sink.
Fig.5  Sectoral transition pathway.
Primary energy EROI Reference
Min Mean Max
Coal 26 31 35 Hu et al. (2013a)
Indigenous oil 8 10 14 Hu et al. (2013a); Cheng et al. (2018)
Indigenous natural gas 8 10 14 Hu et al. (2013a); Cheng et al. (2018)
Biomass 8 12 24 Wang et al. (2021a)
Hydro 38 57 73 Hu et al. (2013b); Zhang and Pang (2015); Li et al. (2017)
Wind 11 21 29 Chen et al. (2011); Yang and Chen (2013); Huang et al. (2017); Feng et al. (2020)
Solar 3.4 7.0 13.6 Lu and Yang (2010); Nishimura et al. (2010); Yue et al. (2014); Cao et al. (2016); Liu and van den Bergh (2020)
Geothermal 20 40 60 Chang et al. (2017); Liu (2017)
Nuclear 11 14 17 Hall et al. (2014)
Imported oil 4 7 14 Kong et al. (2016)
Imported natural gas 8 14 16 Kong et al. (2016; 2018)
Tab.5  EROI of different energy carriers
Fig.6  EROI and net energy supply variation under energy transition.
Fig.7  Impact of EROI variation on (a) energy demand and (b) carbon emissions.
Non-fossil energy sources Potentiala) Energy demand
Solar Centralized 4.67–23.33b) 22.67
Distributed > 1.58
Wind 27.52–88.92 12.70
Hydro 8.91–21.90 9.37
Biomass 57.53–101.24 4.57
Tab.6  Potential and demand values in 2060 of main non-fossil energy sources in China (unit: EJ/year)
Fig.8  Impact of short supply of fossil fuels.
Fig.9  Impact of changed integration policy on emissions of (a) whole system and (b) electricity generation.
Fig.10  Carbon emissions under different CCS penetration ratios.
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