Spatial risk assessment for critical network infrastructure using sensitivity analysis

doi:10.1007/s11707-011-0202-1

Front Earth Sci

2011, Vol. 5

Issue (4) : 414-420 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-011-0202-1

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Spatial risk assessment for critical network infrastructure using sensitivity analysis

Michael M?derl(

), Wolfgang Rauch

Institute of Infrastructure, University of Innsbruck, Technikerstr. 13, Innsbruck 6020, Austria

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Abstract

The presented spatial risk assessment method allows for managing critical network infrastructure in urban areas under abnormal and future conditions caused e.g., by terrorist attacks, infrastructure deterioration or climate change. For the spatial risk assessment, vulnerability maps for critical network infrastructure are merged with hazard maps for an interfering process. Vulnerability maps are generated using a spatial sensitivity analysis of network transport models to evaluate performance decrease under investigated thread scenarios. Thereby parameters are varied according to the specific impact of a particular threat scenario. Hazard maps are generated with a geographical information system using raster data of the same threat scenario derived from structured interviews and cluster analysis of events in the past. The application of the spatial risk assessment is exemplified by means of a case study for a water supply system, but the principal concept is applicable likewise to other critical network infrastructure. The aim of the approach is to help decision makers in choosing zones for preventive measures.

Keywords critical infrastructure hazard vulnerability risk

Corresponding Author(s): M?derl Michael,Email:michael.moederl@gmail.com

Issue Date: 05 December 2011

Cite this article:

Michael M?derl,Wolfgang Rauch. Spatial risk assessment for critical network infrastructure using sensitivity analysis[J]. Front Earth Sci, 2011, 5(4): 414-420.

URL:

https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/10.1007/s11707-011-0202-1
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/Y2011/V5/I4/414

Fig.1 Definition of terms for spatial risk assessment

Tab.1 Network characteristics of water distribution systems

Fig.2 Hazard map for flooding

Fig.3 Vulnerability map for a water supply system

Fig.4 Risk map for flooding and a water supply system

Fig.5 Detail map of a risky site

Tab.2 Risk matrix for flooding and a water supply system (elements indicate number of cells with corresponding hazard and vulnerability group)

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