Decomposition of energy-related carbon emissions in Xinjiang and relative mitigation policy recommendations

doi:10.1007/s11707-014-0442-y

Front. Earth Sci.

2015, Vol. 9

Issue (1) : 65-76 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-014-0442-y

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Decomposition of energy-related carbon emissions in Xinjiang and relative mitigation policy recommendations

Changjian WANG^1,^2,^*(

),Xiaolei ZHANG^1,^*(

),Fei WANG^1,²,Jun LEI¹,Li ZHANG³

1. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3. Fujian Urban & Rural Planning Design Institute, Fuzhou 350003, China

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Abstract

Regional carbon emissions research is necessary and helpful for China in realizing reduction targets. The LMDI I (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index I) technique based on an extended Kaya identity was conducted to uncover the main five driving forces for energy-related carbon emissions in Xinjiang, an important energy base in China. Decomposition results show that the affluence effect and the population effect are the two most important contributors to increased carbon emissions. The energy intensity effect had a positive influence on carbon emissions during the pre-reform period, and then became the dominant factor in curbing carbon emissions after 1978. The renewable energy penetration effect and the emission coefficient effect showed important negative but relatively minor effects on carbon emissions. Based on the local realities, a comprehensive suite of mitigation policies are raised by considering all of these influencing factors. Mitigation policies will need to significantly reduce energy intensity and pay more attention to the regional economic development path. Fossil fuel substitution should be considered seriously. Renewable energy should be increased in the energy mix. All of these policy recommendations, if implemented by the central and local government, should make great contributions to energy saving and emission reduction in Xinjiang.

Keywords carbon emissions Xinjiang index decomposition analysis mitigation policy recommendations

Corresponding Author(s): Changjian WANG,Xiaolei ZHANG

Online First Date: 12 June 2014 Issue Date: 04 February 2015

Cite this article:

Changjian WANG,Xiaolei ZHANG,Fei WANG, et al. Decomposition of energy-related carbon emissions in Xinjiang and relative mitigation policy recommendations[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2015, 9(1): 65-76.

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https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/10.1007/s11707-014-0442-y
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/Y2015/V9/I1/65

Tab.1 Conversion factors, LCV, oxidation rate and carbon emission factors of energy sources

Fig.1 Total energy consumption in million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) in Xinjiang from 1952 to 2010.

Fig.2 Changes of energy consumption structure in Xinjiang from 1952 to 2010.

Fig.3 Total carbon emissions in million tonnes of Xinjiang from 1952 to 2010.

Fig.4 Contributions of Xinjiang’s GDP and carbon emissions to China from 1952 to 2010.

Fig.5 Share changes of carbon emissions from the consumption of coal, oil, and natural gas from 1952 to 2010.

Year	p-effect	g-effect	e-effect	s-effect	f-effect	?C
1952–1953	0.0094	0.0344	0.0675	0.0000	–0.0021	0.1093
1953–1954	0.0155	0.0429	–0.1468	0.0000	0.0033	–0.0850
1954–1955	0.0086	0.0546	0.0722	0.0000	0.0004	0.1359
1955–1956	0.0207	0.0795	0.0269	0.0000	–0.0034	0.1236
1956–1957	0.0284	0.0050	0.0908	–0.0019	–0.0082	0.1141
1957–1958	0.0551	0.1462	1.2711	0.0026	0.0245	1.4995
1958–1959	0.2847	0.3173	0.4030	0.0000	–0.0578	0.9471
1959–1960	0.1935	0.3420	0.1945	0.0000	–0.0517	0.6783
1960–1961	0.1134	–1.3811	0.3311	–0.0067	0.0398	–0.9035
1961–1962	–0.0378	–0.3789	–0.5674	–0.0048	0.0427	–0.9462
1962–1963	0.0384	0.1977	–0.3130	–0.0039	0.0004	–0.0804
1963–1964	0.0857	0.2465	–0.0495	0.0000	–0.0120	0.2706
1964–1965	0.1344	0.2077	–0.0428	–0.0023	–0.0029	0.2942
1965–1966	0.1583	0.1796	0.0563	–0.0053	0.0022	0.3911
1966–1967	0.1116	–0.5515	0.4123	–0.0114	0.0066	–0.0326
1967–1968	0.1124	–0.4559	0.2186	–0.0028	–0.0028	–0.1304
1968–1969	0.0995	–0.0689	–0.1033	0.0000	–0.0227	–0.0953
1969–1970	0.1040	0.3630	0.4713	–0.0031	0.0074	0.9426
1970–1971	0.1239	0.3358	–0.1005	0.0038	–0.0089	0.3540
1971–1972	0.1495	–0.4194	0.2684	–0.0079	0.0066	–0.0026
1972–1973	0.1450	–0.0984	0.1157	0.0000	–0.0295	0.1328
1973–1974	0.1344	–0.0725	0.0363	–0.0041	0.0037	0.0978
1974–1975	0.1148	0.4173	0.4773	0.0093	–0.0662	0.9524
1975–1976	0.1401	0.5128	–0.3323	–0.0107	0.0756	0.3856
1976–1977	0.1135	0.5701	0.1915	–0.0060	0.0059	0.8750
1977–1978	0.1285	0.3737	–0.0439	0.0000	–0.0243	0.4340
1978–1979	0.1243	0.6929	–0.8006	–0.0137	–0.0242	–0.0213
1979–1980	0.1476	0.6316	–0.4832	0.0000	–0.0062	0.2898
1980–1981	0.1096	0.5612	–0.3740	–0.0146	–0.0060	0.2761
1981–1982	0.0716	0.5972	–0.6030	–0.0224	–0.0308	0.0125
1982–1983	0.1007	1.2027	–0.5945	0.0000	0.0225	0.7315
1983–1984	0.0662	0.7794	–0.4750	–0.0084	0.0190	0.3812
1984–1985	0.1134	1.1999	–0.1619	0.0185	0.0093	1.1792
1985–1986	0.1590	0.5662	–0.5026	–0.0199	–0.0010	0.2017
1986–1987	0.1599	0.5486	–0.6153	–0.0304	0.0039	0.0668
1987–1988	0.1487	1.1489	–0.0147	0.0000	–0.0245	1.2585
1988–1989	0.2213	–0.6171	1.1406	–0.0119	0.0106	0.7436
1989–1990	0.6239	1.1737	–0.7072	0.0000	0.0044	1.0948
1990–1991	0.2217	2.1186	–1.3041	0.0277	–0.0745	0.9894
1991–1992	0.2418	1.2442	–0.1767	–0.0450	–0.0592	1.2051
1992–1993	0.2450	1.1721	0.1129	–0.0164	–0.1130	1.4007
1993–1994	0.2878	0.7592	–0.2201	–0.0176	0.0415	0.8509
1994–1995	0.3094	0.6344	–0.1780	–0.0184	0.0206	0.7680
1995–1996	0.3200	–0.0115	1.7952	0.0397	–0.0843	2.0591
1996–1997	0.3458	2.2195	–1.8630	–0.0636	–0.1806	0.4581
1997–1998	0.3555	1.0251	–0.6030	–0.0218	–0.0479	0.7078
1998–1999	0.3325	1.5412	–2.0698	–0.2433	0.0008	–0.4386
1999–2000	0.8768	2.8783	–3.0945	0.0672	0.0560	0.7838
2000–2001	0.3177	1.1216	–0.2686	–0.0695	–0.3910	0.7102
2001–2002	0.3520	1.9290	–1.4688	0.0482	0.1270	0.9873
2002–2003	0.3706	3.7018	–1.2243	–0.0779	–0.1348	2.6355
2003–2004	0.4254	3.8639	0.3494	0.2974	–0.1014	4.8347
2004–2005	0.7848	4.8416	–0.9903	–0.0344	–0.3324	4.2693
2005–2006	0.7195	4.3898	–1.6584	–0.1153	0.0252	3.3609
2006–2007	0.8785	2.9901	–0.4919	0.0421	0.1303	3.5492
2007–2008	0.7382	3.2343	–0.8040	–0.3211	0.5879	3.4353
2008–2009	0.6127	0.2001	2.1409	–0.1492	0.6528	3.4573
2009–2010	0.5365	8.9143	–4.4877	–0.2712	–0.0144	4.6774

Tab.2 Complete decomposition of carbon emission change in million tones (1952–2010)

Tab.3 Brief description of six division stages

Tab.4 Complete decomposition of carbon emission changes in million tones in six stages

Fig.6 The comparison of decomposition results for the six periods.

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