Variation and future trends in precipitation over summer and autumn across the Yunnan region

doi:10.1007/s11707-015-0523-6

Front. Earth Sci.

2016, Vol. 10

Issue (3) : 498-512 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-015-0523-6

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Variation and future trends in precipitation over summer and autumn across the Yunnan region

Ziniu XIAO^1,^*(

),Xiuhua ZHOU²,Ping YANG³,Hua LIU³

¹. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
². Guangxi Climate Center, Nanning 530022, China
³. China Meteorological Administration Training Center, Beijing 100081, China

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Abstract

This study analyzed the changes in precipitation over summer and autumn across the Yunnan region of China, and undertook a composite analysis of the atmospheric circulations in the troposphere, which included an analysis of the interannual and interdecadal variations. This paper examines in detail the circulation backgrounds of the wet and dry periods in summer and autumn and their correlations with the sea surface temperature. The results indicated that the summer and autumn precipitation across Yunnan has significantly decreased over the past 50 years. Furthermore, since the beginning of the century, the summer and autumn precipitation cycle has been in a low precipitation phase. The overlap of two extremely low rain phases has caused frequent droughts in the region. In addition, the atmospheric circulation fields during these wet and dry periods are very different. These are mainly shown as a meridional wind anomaly in eastern China in the low atmosphere, as a cross-equatorial airflow anomaly, a tropical zonal wind anomaly over the Indian Ocean, and as a related South Asia High and Western Pacific Subtropical High. Further analysis suggested that the SST over the Indian Ocean and the Pacific warm pool critically affect the anomalous summer and autumn precipitation over Yunnan by impacting the monsoon circulations. Future projections for greenhouse gas warming suggest a potential anomalous circulation background between 2010 and 2020 which may result in less precipitation during the wet season or even drought events across the Yunnan region.

Keywords precipitation over Yunnan circulation background sea temperature anomaly future trend

Corresponding Author(s): Ziniu XIAO

Just Accepted Date: 15 July 2015 Online First Date: 09 September 2015 Issue Date: 20 June 2016

Cite this article:

Ziniu XIAO,Xiuhua ZHOU,Ping YANG, et al. Variation and future trends in precipitation over summer and autumn across the Yunnan region[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2016, 10(3): 498-512.

URL:

https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/10.1007/s11707-015-0523-6
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/Y2016/V10/I3/498

Tab.1 Climate model details

Fig.1 Locations of 124 meteorological stations in Yunnan Province (a); annual precipitation cycle data from 124 meteorological stations in Yunnan Province between 1961 and 2011 (b, c; unit: mm).

Fig.2 Time series for precipitation (a, c, e, g, red lines represent 11 yr running average, blue lines are the linear trends, unit: mm) and cumulative anomaly curves between 1961 and 2011 (b, d, f, h, unit: mm); (a, b) annual, (c, d) JJA, (e, f) SON, (g, h) JJA and SON accumulations.

Fig.3 Time series for (a) JJA and (b) SON standardized precipitation between 1961 and 2011 (dashed line is the boundary of±1 standardized anomalies, red line represents 11 yr running average, blue line is the linear trend, unit: 1).

Tab.2 The wet and dry years (periods) for JJA and SON

Fig.4 Correlation vectors between summer precipitation and the wind vector distribution at (a) 700 hPa and (b) 200 hPa. The correlation vectors are structured by the correlation coefficient between precipitation and meridional wind for the X direction and the zonal wind for the Y direction. The light and dark shaded areas are significant at 95% and 99%, respectively, unit: 1.

Fig.5 Wind difference maps for JJA wet and dry years (a, b, wet years minus dry years), wet and dry periods (c, d, wet periods minus dry periods). The F-test was used to compare the (a, c) 700 hPa, (b, d) 200 hPa wind fields (unit: m/s, the light and dark shaded areas show that the results were significant at 95% and 99%, respectively).

Fig.6 Correlation vectors between autumn precipitation and the wind vector distribution at (a) 700 hPa, (b) 200 hPa. The correlation vectors are structured by the correlation coefficient between precipitation and meridional wind for the X direction and the zonal wind for the Y direction. The light and dark shaded areas show that the results were significant at 95% and 99%, respectively, unit: 1.

Fig.7 Autumn wind difference maps for JJA wet and dry years (a, b, wet years minus dry years), wet and dry periods (c, d , wet periods minus dry periods). The F-test was used for the (a, c) 700 hPa, (b, d) 200 hPa wind field data (unit: m/s, the light and dark shaded areas show where the results were significant at 95% and 99%, respectively).

Fig.8 Precipitation series and corresponding sea surface temperature correlation coefficients in (a) summer and (b) autumn (unit: 1; shaded areas show results that are significant at>90%, based on the t-test.)

Fig.9 Model-simulated abnormal circulation fields in dry periods during summer (a, c), and the projected abnormal circulation fields for 2010−2020 (b, d) (relative to the 1961−2011 recorded means); wind fields (a, b) at 700 hPa and (c, d) at 200 hPa (unit: m/s, the light and dark shaded areas show where results are significant at 95% and 99%, respectively).

Fig.10 Model-simulated abnormal circulation fields in dry periods during autumn (a, c) and the projected abnormal circulation fields for 2010−2020 (b, d) (relative to the 1961−2011 recorded means); (a, b) at 700 hPa and (c, d) at 200 hPa (unit: m/s, the light and dark shaded areas are where results were significant at 95% and 99%).

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