A one-way coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system with combination of high-resolution and ensemble precipitation forecasting

doi:10.1007/s11707-015-0535-2

Front. Earth Sci.

2016, Vol. 10

Issue (3) : 432-443 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-015-0535-2

RESEARCH ARTICLE

A one-way coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system with combination of high-resolution and ensemble precipitation forecasting

Zhiyong WU¹, Juan WU^1,²(

), Guihua LU¹

¹. College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
². Bureau of Hydrology Information Center of Taihu Basin Authority, Shanghai 200434, China

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Abstract

Coupled hydrological and atmospheric modeling is an effective tool for providing advanced flood forecasting. However, the uncertainties in precipitation forecasts are still considerable. To address uncertainties, a one-way coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system, with a combination of high-resolution and ensemble precipitation forecasting, has been developed. It consists of three high-resolution single models and four sets of ensemble forecasts from the THORPEX Interactive Grande Global Ensemble database. The former provides higher forecasting accuracy, while the latter provides the range of forecasts. The combined precipitation forecasting was then implemented to drive the Chinese National Flood Forecasting System in the 2007 and 2008 Huai River flood hindcast analysis. The encouraging results demonstrated that the system can clearly give a set of forecasting hydrographs for a flood event and has a promising relative stability in discharge peaks and timing for warning purposes. It not only gives a deterministic prediction, but also generates probability forecasts. Even though the signal was not persistent until four days before the peak discharge was observed in the 2007 flood event, the visualization based on threshold exceedance provided clear and concise essential warning information at an early stage. Forecasters could better prepare for the possibility of a flood at an early stage, and then issue an actual warning if the signal strengthened. This process may provide decision support for civil protection authorities. In future studies, different weather forecasts will be assigned various weight coefficients to represent the covariance of predictors and the extremes of distributions.

Keywords one-way coupled hydrological and atmospheric modeling flood forecast high-resolution precipitation forecasting ensemble prediction

Corresponding Author(s): Juan WU

Just Accepted Date: 10 October 2015 Online First Date: 23 November 2015 Issue Date: 20 June 2016

Cite this article:

Zhiyong WU,Juan WU,Guihua LU. A one-way coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system with combination of high-resolution and ensemble precipitation forecasting[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2016, 10(3): 432-443.

URL:

https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/10.1007/s11707-015-0535-2
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/Y2016/V10/I3/432

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