● A database of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation in China was established.
● An accurate MSW generation prediction model (WGMod) was constructed.
● Key factors affecting MSW generation were identified.
● MSW trends generation in Beijing and Shenzhen in the near future are projected.
Integrated management of municipal solid waste (MSW) is a major environmental challenge encountered by many countries. To support waste treatment/management and national macroeconomic policy development, it is essential to develop a prediction model. With this motivation, a database of MSW generation and feature variables covering 130 cities across China is constructed. Based on the database, advanced machine learning (gradient boost regression tree) algorithm is adopted to build the waste generation prediction model, i.e., WGMod. In the model development process, the main influencing factors on MSW generation are identified by weight analysis. The selected key influencing factors are annual precipitation, population density and annual mean temperature with the weights of 13%, 11% and 10%, respectively. The WGMod shows good performance with R2 = 0.939. Model prediction on MSW generation in Beijing and Shenzhen indicates that waste generation in Beijing would increase gradually in the next 3–5 years, while that in Shenzhen would grow rapidly in the next 3 years. The difference between the two is predominately driven by the different trends of population growth.
Logan City Council region in Queensland, Australia
0.98
Abbasi and El Hanandeh, 2016
kNN
K-nearest neighbors
Logan City Council region in Queensland, Australia
0.51
Abbasi and El Hanandeh, 2016
ANN model
Artificial neural network
Fars province, Iran
0.67–0.86
Azadi and Karimi-Jashni, 2016
GT/PCA/-ANN models
Artificial neural networks
Mashhad, Iran
0.73–0.80
Noori et al., 2010
Tab.3
Fig.5
Fig.6
Fig.7
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