Abstract：This study analyzes China’s future energy scenarios stretching until 2050 under different policy portfolios of energy security (e.g., oil import dependency) and CO2 emissions control. Four scenarios, namely, ① business as usual, ② strong oil import dependency (OID) control, ③ strong CO2 emissions control, and ④ twofold emphasis on OID and CO2 emissions control, are designed. The results reveal the existence of conflicts among China’s multiple objectives, particularly energy saving, energy security, and CO2 mitigation. Based on the analysis, an improvement in China’s efficiency in fossil energy conversion and the promotion of the utilization of non-fossil energy such as nuclear, wind, and hydro energy are recommended. The over-development of coal-derived fuels should also be avoided because of incremental coal consumption and CO2 emissions. Furthermore, research on and development of carbon capture and storage technologies should be promoted, while the energy efficiency loss caused by integrating these technologies into energy systems should be reduced in view of the high possibility of stricter standards for CO2 emissions in the future.
. Modeling China’s energy dilemma: conflicts
among energy saving, energy security, and CO 2 mitigation[J]. Front. Energy, 2010, 4(3): 295-300.
Feng FU, Zheng LI, Linwei MA, . Modeling China’s energy dilemma: conflicts
among energy saving, energy security, and CO 2 mitigation. Front. Energy, 2010, 4(3): 295-300.
Wei Y C, Deng S P, Jiang Y F, Qian X R. Life cycle assessment of coal-based methanol and coal-based FT diesel. Energy Environmental Protection, 2008, 22(3): 48–52 (in Chinese)
Zhang L, Huang Z. Analysis of life cycle primary energy consumption and greenhouse gases emissionof methanol-gasoline as vehicle fuel. Design and Manufacture of Diesel Engine, 2007, 15(1): 26–30 (in Chinese)
Zhao L F, Xiao Y H, Gallagher KS, Wang B, Xu X. Technical, environmental, and economic assessment of deploying advance coal powertechnologies in the Chinese context. Energy Policy, 2008, 36(7): 2709–2718 doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2008.03.028
ERI (Energy Research Institute). China’s Low Carbon Development Pathways by 2050:Scenario Analysis of Energy Demand and Carbon Emissions. Beijing: Science Press, 2009
Larson E D, Wu Z X, DeLaquil P, Chen W Y, Gao P F. Future implications of China’senergy-technology choices. Energy Policy, 2003, 31(12): 1189–1204 doi: 10.1016/S0301-4215(02)00171-4
Hugo A, Rutter P, Pistikopoulos S, Amorelli A, Zoia G. Hydrogen infrastructure strategic planning using multi-objective optimization. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 2005, 30(15): 1523–1534 doi: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2005.04.017
Biegler L T, Grossmann I E, Westerberg A W. Systematic Methods of ChemicalProcess Design. New Jersey: Prentice Hall, 1997
Zhang A L, Shen W, Han W J, Chai Q H. Life-cycle assessment for alternative vehicle fuels in China. Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, 2008 (in Chinese)
CAS (China Academy ofSciences). Strategic Research on Developmentof Renewable Energy in China. Beijing: CAS, 2008 (in Chinese)
IEA. IEA Energy Technology Essentials: CO2 Capture & Storage. Paris: IEA, 2006
NBSC (National Bureauof Statistics of China). China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2006. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2007
THCEC (Tsinghua-BP CleanEnergy Research & Education Centre). Study on the Energy Situation of China: Focusing on Energy PolicyReview and End-Use Energy Demand Forecasting. A Report for Tsinghua TOYOTA Collaboration Project in Energy Field, 2008
