Please wait a minute...
购物车 申请加入邮件组 English
高级检索 图表检索
Frontiers in Energy

ISSN 2095-1701

ISSN 2095-1698(Online)

CN 11-6017/TK

邮发代号 80-972

2019 Impact Factor: 2.657

热点文章  |  下载排行  |  浏览排行
在线投稿 免费RSS订阅
Frontiers in Energy  2016, Vol. 10 Issue (4): 479-488   https://doi.org/10.1007/s11708-016-0425-7
  本期目录
Reliability prediction and its validation for nuclear power units in service
Jinyuan SHI(),Yong WANG
Shanghai Power Equipment Research Institute, Shanghai 200240, China
 全文: PDF(120 KB)   HTML
Abstract：

In this paper a novel method for reliability prediction and validation of nuclear power units in service is proposed. The equivalent availability factor is used to measure the reliability, and the equivalent availability factor deducting planed outage hours from period hours and maintenance factor are used for the measurement of inherent reliability. By statistical analysis of historical reliability data, the statistical maintenance factor and the undetermined parameter in its numerical model can be determined. The numerical model based on the maintenance factor predicts the equivalent availability factor deducting planed outage hours from period hours, and the planed outage factor can be obtained by using the planned maintenance days. Using these factors, the equivalent availability factor of nuclear power units in the following 3 years can be obtained. Besides, the equivalent availability factor can be predicted by using the historical statistics of planed outage factor and the predicted equivalent availability factor deducting planed outage hours from period hours. The accuracy of the reliability prediction can be evaluated according to the comparison between the predicted and statistical equivalent availability factors. Furthermore, the reliability prediction method is validated using the nuclear power units in North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) and China. It is found that the relative errors of the predicted equivalent availability factors for nuclear power units of NERC and China are in the range of –2.16% to 5.23% and –2.15% to 3.71%, respectively. The method proposed can effectively predict the reliability index in the following 3 years, thus providing effective reliability management and maintenance optimization methods for nuclear power units.
Key words： nuclear power units in service    reliability    reliability prediction    equivalent availability factors
收稿日期: 2016-03-02      出版日期: 2016-11-17
Corresponding Author(s): Jinyuan SHI   
 引用本文:   
. [J]. Frontiers in Energy, 2016, 10(4): 479-488.
Jinyuan SHI,Yong WANG. Reliability prediction and its validation for nuclear power units in service. Front. Energy, 2016, 10(4): 479-488.
 链接本文:  
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fie/CN/10.1007/s11708-016-0425-7
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fie/CN/Y2016/V10/I4/479
Year Power
Results for all units 800–999 MW 1000 MW Plus
Number of units EAF(ti)/% POF(ti)/% Number of units EAF(ti)/% POF(ti)/% Number of units EAF(ti)/% POF(ti)/%
2004 103 87.53 7.59 38 89.74 5.97 49 88.03 8.05
2005 104 87.06 7.20 38 87.97 5.97 48 89.93 6.47
2006 108 88.77 6.95 38 89.54 6.95 49 89.13 6.93
2007 99 90.24 6.30 33 91.77 6.03 50 89.30 7.10
2008 99 89.40 7.26 34 91.08 5.67 51 89.67 7.06
2009 99 88.21 7.70 34 89.96 7.03 51 88.40 6.48
2010 99 88.53 6.73 34 87.40 6.63 51 90.58 5.39
2011 97 86.37 8.36 32 86.89 6.14 50 88.40 7.00
2012 101 83.50 8.97 33 87.10 7.03 51 84.24 7.95
2013 104 87.66 6.39 33 90.44 5.71 54 88.55 5.90
Tab.1  
Year ti EAF(ti)/% POF(ti)/% ρ m η EAF(n + 1)/% EAF(n + 2)/% EAF(n + 3)/% Er/%
2004 1 87.53 7.59 0.05575
2005 2 87.06 7.20 0.06593
2006 3 88.77 6.95 0.04821 0.091931 0.059341
2007 4 90.24 6.30 0.03834 0.260758 0.062810 89.05 –1.32
2008 5 89.40 7.26 0.03736 0.301046 0.063990 89.06 88.22 –1.31
2009 6 88.21 7.70 0.04637 0.232249 0.061528 88.98 88.80 87.88 0.87
2010 7 88.53 6.73 0.05354 0.151293 0.058300 89.76 90.06 89.87 1.73
2011 8 86.37 8.36 0.06102 0.072899 0.054965 87.90 88.29 88.61 2.59
2012 9 83.50 8.97 0.09018 –0.04978 0.049651 86.96 87.38 87.79 5.13
2013 10 87.66 6.39 0.06788 –0.08222 0.048222 88.67 89.45 89.91 2.57
Tab.2  
Year ti EAF(ti)/
%		 POF(ti)/
%		 ρ m η EAF(n + 1)/
%		 EAF(n + 2)/
%		 EAF(n + 3)/
%		 Er/
%
2004 1 89.74 5.97 0.04780
2005 2 87.97 5.97 0.06889
2006 3 89.54 6.95 0.03920 0.104420 0.053792
2007 4 91.77 6.03 0.02397 0.466539 0.060763 89.79 –2.16
2008 5 91.08 5.67 0.03568 0.378336 0.058337 91.70 90.23 –0.94
2009 6 89.96 7.03 0.03346 0.339708 0.057066 90.30 90.58 89.00 –1.07
2010 7 87.40 6.63 0.06831 0.122156 0.049372 90.70 90.83 91.14 4.27
2011 8 86.89 6.14 0.08022 –0.03878 0.043749 90.40 91.29 91.43 5.23
2012 9 87.10 7.03 0.06739 –0.10372 0.041456 88.74 89.59 90.52 3.93
2013 10 90.44 5.71 0.04257 –0.06894 0.042774 89.57 89.99 90.90 –0.96
Tab.3  
Year ti EAF(ti)/% POF(ti)/% ρ m η EAF(n + 1)/% EAF(n + 2)/% EAF(n + 3)/% Er/%
2004 1 88.03 8.05 0.04453
2005 2 89.93 6.47 0.04003
2006 3 89.13 6.93 0.04421 0.022500 0.043452
2007 4 89.30 7.10 0.04031 0.046397 0.043803 89.15 –0.17
2008 5 89.67 7.06 0.03647 0.090231 0.044699 89.31 89.20 –0.52
2009 6 88.40 6.48 0.05792 –0.04301 0.041429 90.09 89.90 89.77 1.92
2010 7 90.58 5.39 0.04449 –0.03981 0.041517 90.53 91.19 90.97 0.67
2011 8 88.40 7.00 0.05204 –0.07095 0.040557 88.99 88.97 89.68 1.44
2012 9 84.24 7.95 0.09271 –0.19654 0.036547 87.88 88.06 88.04 4.53
2013 10 88.55 5.90 0.06268 –0.21077 0.036082 88.99 89.81 90.00 1.64
Tab.4  
Year ti EAF(ti)/% POF(ti)/% ρ m η EAF(n + 1)/% EAF(n + 2)/% EAF(n + 3)/% Er/%
2008 1 71.38 27.26 0.01909
2009 2 74.83 24.51 0.00884
2010 3 87.25 12.75 0.00000 8.125370 0.070797
2011 4 100.00 0.00 0.00000 8.072653 0.069552 100.00 0.00
2012 5 86.91 13.12 0.00000 7.329061 0.049334 86.88 86.88 –0.04
2013 6 90.00 9.15 0.00947 3.693418 0.006206 90.85 90.85 90.85 0.95
Tab.5  
Year ti EAF(ti)/% POF(ti)/% ρ m η EAF(n + 1)/% EAF(n + 2)/% EAF(n + 3)/% Er/%
2008 1 81.45 18.16 0.00475
2009 2 80.53 19.46 0.00015
2010 3 82.69 17.13 0.00214 1.187275 0.002326
2011 4 100.00 0.00 0.00000 4.520036 0.007139 99.96 –0.04
2012 5 87.91 12.12 0.00000 5.165162 0.009617 87.88 87.85 –0.07
2013 6 88.48 10.54 0.01107 2.190137 0.001763 89.46 89.46 89.43 1.11
Tab.6  
Year ti EAF(ti)/% POF(ti)/% ρ m η EAF(n + 1)/% EAF(n + 2)/% EAF(n + 3)/% Er/%
2003 1 81.89 12.68 0.06631
2004 2 89.73 10.03 0.00267
2005 3 84.50 15.02 0.00568 2.494617 0.044477
2006 4 90.27 9.08 0.00720 1.600860 0.032925 90.79 0.58
2007 5 83.82 16.16 0.00024 2.549497 0.051030 83.63 83.77 –0.23
2008 6 91.93 7.10 0.01055 1.602077 0.029731 92.85 92.73 92.85 1.00
2009 7 91.02 8.04 0.01028 1.070310 0.020867 91.83 91.92 91.82 0.99
2010 8 94.12 5.40 0.00514 0.890892 0.018236 94.39 94.50 94.58 0.49
2011 9 93.20 6.25 0.00592 0.734945 0.016024 93.51 93.57 93.67 0.50
2012 10 91.69 5.71 0.02841 0.363947 0.011476 94.02 94.07 94.13 2.66
2013 11 82.44 16.21 0.01638 0.185429 0.009659 83.39 83.56 83.61 1.42
Tab.7  
Year ti EAF(ti)/% POF(ti)/% ρ m η EAF(n + 1)/% EAF(n + 2)/% EAF(n + 3)/% Er/%
2004 1 81.22 17.94 0.01034
2005 2 91.94 7.30 0.00824
2006 3 92.56 6.80 0.00692 0.362202 0.010409
2007 4 88.16 7.99 0.04363 –0.694066 0.007295 91.43 3.71
2008 5 86.19 13.78 0.00033 1.011887 0.016042 84.34 85.72 –2.15
2009 6 90.46 8.09 0.01603 0.438005 0.011565 91.67 89.64 91.41 1.34
2010 7 91.99 7.40 0.00660 0.362549 0.010998 92.14 92.39 90.06 –2.10
2011 8 93.94 5.45 0.00654 0.311722 0.010586 94.07 94.12 94.37 0.46
2012 9 89.94 7.69 0.02639 0.012525 0.008261 91.82 91.86 91.91 2.19
2013 10 87.47 10.91 0.01848 –0.124085 0.007305 88.38 88.63 88.66 1.36
Tab.8  
Year ti EAF(ti)/% POF(ti)/% ρ m η EAF(n + 1)/% EAF(n + 2)/% EAF(n + 3)/% Er/%
2003 1 90.78 0.00 0.10156
2004 2 77.44 22.14 0.00536
2005 3 82.85 15.47 0.02030 1.764598 0.063903
2006 4 96.60 3.40 0.00000 6.468936 0.311159 96.07 –0.55
2007 5 82.67 17.33 0.00000 7.331396 0.463440 82.67 82.36 –0.37
2008 6 88.10 11.93 0.00000 7.303002 0.455997 88.07 88.07 87.83 –0.31
2009 7 92.19 7.81 0.00000 6.997507 0.372079 92.19 92.19 92.19 0.00
2010 8 90.07 9.93 0.00000 6.280064 0.217041 90.07 90.07 90.07 0.00
2011 9 98.14 1.70 0.00160 4.616302 0.054652 98.30 98.30 98.30 0.16
2012 10 94.67 3.70 0.01723 3.064196 0.013520 96.30 96.30 96.30 1.72
2013 11 90.76 8.27 0.01071 2.030372 0.004983 91.73 91.73 91.73 1.07
Tab.9  
Year ti EAF(ti)/% POF(ti)/% ρ m η EAF(n + 1)/% EAF(n + 2)/% EAF(n + 3)/% Er/%
2004 1 94.80 4.14 0.01120
2005 2 80.21 16.97 0.03521
2006 3 87.47 12.40 0.00148 1.464810 0.020057
2007 4 97.69 2.31 0.00000 5.763511 0.085204 97.43 –0.27
2008 5 87.63 12.40 0.00000 6.601611 0.125483 87.60 87.44 –0.22
2009 6 95.42 4.58 0.00001 5.866340 0.082509 95.42 95.42 95.28 –0.14
2010 7 92.79 7.21 0.00004 4.894783 0.043212 92.79 92.79 92.79 0.00
2011 8 89.85 9.29 0.00961 3.006414 0.010458 90.71 90.71 90.71 0.96
2012 9 90.83 9.19 0.00000 3.502394 0.015776 90.80 90.81 90.81 –0.03
2013 10 100.00 0.00 0.00001 3.387580 0.014227 100.00 100.00 100.00 0.00
Tab.10  
Year ti EAF(ti)/% POF(ti)/% ρ m η EAF(n + 1)/% EAF(n + 2)/% EAF(n + 3)/% Er/%
2004 13 99.83 0.00 0.00170
2005 14 87.86 11.77 0.00422
2006 15 92.32 7.68 0.00000 5.902193 0.006551
2007 16 82.40 17.60 0.00000 6.232480 0.007321 82.40 –0.27
2008 17 96.15 3.10 0.00776 2.161159 0.001116 96.90 96.90 –0.22
2009 18 89.60 10.20 0.00225 0.713056 0.000489 89.80 89.80 89.80 –0.14
2010 19 84.42 15.42 0.00187 0.006415 0.000305 84.57 84.58 84.58 0.00
2011 20 88.66 11.34 0.00001 0.730688 0.000526 88.63 88.65 88.66 0.96
2012 21 99.92 0.00 0.00080 0.351586 0.000384 99.99 99.97 99.99 –0.03
2013 22 81.28 18.71 0.00014 0.388548 0.000397 81.28 81.28 81.27 0.00
Tab.11  
Year ti EAF(ti)/% POF(ti)/% ρ m η EAF(n + 1)/% EAF(n + 2)/% EAF(n + 3)/% Er/%
1996 2 76.39 18.32 0.06925
1997 3 82.71 16.83 0.00556
1999 5 86.92 12.33 0.00863 1.502274 0.042277
2000 6 86.24 11.12 0.03061 0.597140 0.030977 88.41 2.52
2001 7 88.46 10.42 0.01266 0.541624 0.030188 88.53 89.24 0.89
2002 8 90.45 9.44 0.00122 1.087922 0.041428 89.54 89.61 90.30 –1.01
2003 9 91.21 8.78 0.00011 1.865413 0.070503 90.77 90.27 90.34 –1.03
2004 10 88.52 11.42 0.00068 1.965047 0.076189 88.45 88.20 87.72 –0.90
2005 11 99.96 0.00 0.00040 2.081454 0.084254 99.90 99.88 99.62 –0.34
2006 12 80.93 18.74 0.00408 1.800109 0.064626 81.20 81.19 81.18 0.34
2007 13 92.13 7.84 0.00033 1.905743 0.071937 92.08 92.11 92.10 –0.05
2008 14 99.85 0.00 0.00150 1.785599 0.063176 99.94 99.93 99.95 0.10
2009 15 91.02 8.04 0.01028 1.472167 0.044161 91.90 91.91 91.90 0.97
2010 16 89.31 10.13 0.00625 1.269033 0.034609 89.79 89.82 89.83 0.58
2011 17 99.70 0.00 0.00301 1.169127 0.030535 99.89 99.92 99.95 0.25
2012 18 85.06 14.76 0.00213 1.112881 0.028376 85.14 85.15 85.18 0.14
2013 19 99.94 0.00 0.00060 1.164764 0.030437 99.88 99.89 99.91 –0.06
Tab.12  
1 ANSI/IEEE Std762. IEEE Standard Definition for Use in Reporting Electric Generating Unit Reliability, Availability and Productivity. IEEE Power Energy and Society, 1988
2 National Economy and Trade Commission of the People’s Republic of China. DL/T793 Reliability Evaluation Code for Generating Equipment. Beijing: China Electric Power Press, 2002 (in Chinese)
3 Shi J Y, Yang Y, Wang Y. Theory and Method of Reliability Prediction and Safe Operation of Large Generating Units. Beijing: China Electric Power Press, 2014 (in Chinese)
4 Shi J Y. Study on reliability boost of power plant equipment. Power Engineering, 1991, 11(5): 51–53 (in Chinese)
5 Fang K T, Quan H, Chen Q Y. Practical Regression Analysis.<PublisherLocation><?Pub Caret?>Beijing</PublisherLocation>: Science Press, 1988 (in Chinese)
6 National Economy and Trade Commission of the People’s Republic of China. DL/T838 Guide of Maintenance for Power Plant Equipment. Beijing: China Electric Power Press, 2003 (in Chinese)
7 NERC. Generating unit statistical brochure.<Date> 2016–01–04</Date>, www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/gads/Pages/Reports.aspx
8 Electric Reliability Management Center of National Energy Administration. China Electric Reliability Management Reports, 1996–20 13
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited
  Shared   
  Discussed