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Modeling China’s energy dilemma: conflicts
among energy saving, energy security, and CO 2 mitigation |
Feng FU,Zheng LI,Linwei MA, |
State Key Laboratory
of Power Systems, Department of Thermal Engineering, Tsinghua-BP Clean
Energy Center, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; |
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Abstract This study analyzes China’s future energy scenarios stretching until 2050 under different policy portfolios of energy security (e.g., oil import dependency) and CO2 emissions control. Four scenarios, namely, ① business as usual, ② strong oil import dependency (OID) control, ③ strong CO2 emissions control, and ④ twofold emphasis on OID and CO2 emissions control, are designed. The results reveal the existence of conflicts among China’s multiple objectives, particularly energy saving, energy security, and CO2 mitigation. Based on the analysis, an improvement in China’s efficiency in fossil energy conversion and the promotion of the utilization of non-fossil energy such as nuclear, wind, and hydro energy are recommended. The over-development of coal-derived fuels should also be avoided because of incremental coal consumption and CO2 emissions. Furthermore, research on and development of carbon capture and storage technologies should be promoted, while the energy efficiency loss caused by integrating these technologies into energy systems should be reduced in view of the high possibility of stricter standards for CO2 emissions in the future.
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Keywords
Energy dilemma
energy saving
energy security
CO2 mitigation
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Issue Date: 05 September 2010
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