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Frontiers in Energy

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Front Energ Power Eng Chin    2010, Vol. 4 Issue (4) : 459-468    https://doi.org/10.1007/s11708-010-0119-5
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Scenario analysis of the energy demand and CO2 emission reduction potential of the urban transport system of Beijing through 2030
Jihong ZHANG, Jian ZHOU(), Guangping HU, Tianhou ZHANG
China Automotive Energy Research Center, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
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Abstract

An assessment of the energy demand and the potential for sector-based emission reductions will provide necessary background information for policy makers. In this paper, Beijing was selected as a special case for analysis in order to assess the energy demand and potential of CO2 abatement in the urban transport system of China. A mathematical model was developed to generate three scenarios for the urban transport system of Beijing from 2010 to 2030. The best pattern was identified by comparing the three different scenarios and assessing their urban traffic patterns through cost information. Results show that in the high motorization-oriented pattern scenario, total energy demand is about 13.94% higher, and the average CO2 abatement per year is 3.38 million tons less than in the reference scenario. On the other hand, in the bus and rail transit-oriented scenario, total energy demand is about 11.57% less, and the average CO2 abatement is 2.8 million tons more than in the reference scenario. Thus, Beijing cannot and should not follow the American pattern of high motorization-oriented transport system but learn from the experience of developed cities of Europe and East Asia.
Keywords scenario analysis      urban traffic pattern      energy demand      reduction potential     
Corresponding Author(s): ZHOU Jian,Email:jh_zhang@tsinghua.edu.cn   
Issue Date: 05 December 2010
 Cite this article:   
Jihong ZHANG,Jian ZHOU,Guangping HU, et al. Scenario analysis of the energy demand and CO2 emission reduction potential of the urban transport system of Beijing through 2030[J]. Front Energ Power Eng Chin, 2010, 4(4): 459-468.
 URL:  
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fie/EN/10.1007/s11708-010-0119-5
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fie/EN/Y2010/V4/I4/459
Fig.1  Annual growth of motor vehicles and private cars in Beijing (The statistics on private cars started in 1998)
Fig.2  Modal split survey results from 1986, 2000, 2005, and 2008 in Beijing
per capita trip generation rateper capita trip distancetotal travel/103 person times
19861.61-939
20002.778.02301
20052.649.32920
20082.919.73400
Tab.1  Travel demand in Beijing
mode
private cartaxibusrail transit
q1234
Tab.2  Transportation modes and their corresponding number codes
Fig.3  Four traffic patterns by trip structure and representative cities
Fig.4  Development indexes of different transport modes in Beijing from 1986 to 2008
scenariosdescription
scenario 1The urban transport system would remain unchanged in pattern D. The new subways areas would have already been in operation in accordance with the transport plan of Beijing. Meanwhile, the municipal government will encourage everyone to participate in private car plan. The urban transport pattern would develop toward the urban development patterns found in European cities, such as London and Paris.
scenario 2For most families, the private car would become indispensable, and most people would prefer travelling by car. The urban transport pattern would develop toward the urban develop patterns found in US cities, such as New York and Berkeley. The number of private cars would be higher, and the ratio of travelling by car will be over 50% in the future.
scenario 3Beijing would learn from the experience of urban transport systems in Dalian, Hong Kong, or Tokyo and give priority to public transport while keeping public transport fares low. The municipal government would encourage people to travel by bicycle and public transport but limit travelling by car. Travelling by public transport would be the main mode preferred by residents.
Tab.3  Scenario descriptions
Fig.5  Spreading trend of urban circle layer in Beijing
200520102015202020252030
p153616301700175017751800
n2.772.913.053.23.353.5
d9.310.51111.51212.5
Tab.4  General assumptions in scenario definition
Fig.6  Projection of total travel demand
yearcarpublic transportperson
private cartaxibusrail transitbicycle and walking
Scenario 1 pattern D2010317.229.18.224.5
2020357.530918.5
2030388321012
Scenario 2 pattern A2010337.230821.8
2020506.524712.5
20306851863
Scenario 3 pattern B2010317.229.18.224.5
2020208501210
203016655158
Tab.5  Assumption of traffic patterns in Beijing in the future
Unit: %
modeaverage energy consumption per passenger/(MJ·km-1)CO2 emissions/g
private car2.91156.487
taxi2.35169.008
bus0.6343.867
rail transit0.44115.185
Tab.6  Energy efficiencies and CO emissions
Fig.7  Energy consumption forecasts for different scenarios, 2005 to 2030
Fig.8  CO emissions forecast for different scenarios, 2005 to 2030
operating costinfrastructure costtravel time costexternal costsummary
bicycle00.081450.036290.025570.14326
bus0.009570.000150.002140.080860.09272
private car0.107720.026860.024290.127140.28601
taxi0.141140.002860.028720.074290.144
trail0.051590.173480.001520.010210.2368
Tab.7  Travel cost in Beijing
unit: $/(capita·km)
Fig.9  Total cost forecast for different scenarios, 2005 to 2030
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