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Frontiers of Medicine

ISSN 2095-0217

ISSN 2095-0225(Online)

CN 11-5983/R

Postal Subscription Code 80-967

2018 Impact Factor: 1.847

Front. Med.    2020, Vol. 14 Issue (2) : 199-209    https://doi.org/10.1007/s11684-020-0768-7
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Phase- and epidemic region-adjusted estimation of the number of coronavirus disease 2019 cases in China
Ruijie Chang1, Huwen Wang1, Shuxian Zhang1, Zezhou Wang2, Yinqiao Dong3, Lhakpa Tsamlag1, Xiaoyue Yu1, Chen Xu1, Yuelin Yu1, Rusi Long1, Ning-Ning Liu1, Qiao Chu1, Ying Wang1, Gang Xu1, Tian Shen1, Suping Wang1, Xiaobei Deng1, Jinyan Huang4, Xinxin Zhang5(), Hui Wang1(), Yong Cai1()
1. School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China
2. Department of Cancer Prevention, Shanghai Cancer Center, Fudan University; Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai 200025, China
3. Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang 110122, China
4. State Key Laboratory of Medical Genomics, Shanghai Institute of Hematology, National Research Center for Translational Medicine (Shanghai), Ruijin Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China
5. Research Laboratory of Clinical Virology, National Research Center for Translational Medicine (Shanghai), Ruijin Hospital and Ruijin Hospital North Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China
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Abstract

The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 in China was first reported in Wuhan in December 2019 and gradually spread to other areas in China. After implementation of prevention and control measures, the estimation of the epidemic trend is needed. A phase- and region-adjusted SEIR model was applied for modeling and predicting the number of cases in Wuhan, Hubei Province and regions outside Hubei Province in China. The estimated number of infections could reach its peak in late February 2020 in Wuhan and Hubei Province, which is 55 303–84 520 and 83 944–129 312, respectively, while the epidemic peaks in regions outside Hubei Province in China could appear on February 13, 2020 with the estimated 13 035–19 108 cases. According to the estimation, the outbreak would abate in March and April all over China. Current estimation provided evidence for planned work resumption under stringent prevention and control in China to further support the fight against the epidemic. Nevertheless, there is still possibility of the second outbreak brought by the work resumption and population migration, especially from Hubei Province and high intensity cities outside Hubei Province. Strict prevention and control measures still need to be considered in the regions with high intensity of epidemic and densely-populated cities.

Keywords SEIR model      COVID-19      estimate      China     
Corresponding Author(s): Xinxin Zhang,Hui Wang,Yong Cai   
Just Accepted Date: 18 March 2020   Online First Date: 31 March 2020    Issue Date: 09 May 2020
 Cite this article:   
Ruijie Chang,Huwen Wang,Shuxian Zhang, et al. Phase- and epidemic region-adjusted estimation of the number of coronavirus disease 2019 cases in China[J]. Front. Med., 2020, 14(2): 199-209.
 URL:  
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fmd/EN/10.1007/s11684-020-0768-7
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fmd/EN/Y2020/V14/I2/199
Fig.1  Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of COVID-19 cases in Wuhan, China (December 1, 2019– April 30, 2020, E= 20I).
Fig.2  Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of COVID-19 cases in Wuhan, China (December 1, 2019–April 30, 2020, E= 30I).
Fig.3  Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of COVID-19 cases in Hubei Province, China (December 1, 2019–April 30, 2020, E= 20I).
Fig.4  Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of COVID-19 cases in Hubei Province, China (December 1, 2019–April 30, 2020, E= 30I).
Fig.5  Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of COVID-19 cases in regions outside Hubei Province, China (January 12, 2020–April 30, 2020, E= 10I, I= 541).
Fig.6  Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of COVID-19 cases in regions outside Hubei Province, China (January 12, 2020– April 30, 2020, E= 10I, I= 793).
Number of deaths Number of cases
Wuhan 2212–5071a 55 303–84 520
Hubei Province 2686–6207b 83 944–129 312
Regions outside ?Hubei Province 91–191c 13 035–19 108
Tab.1  Estimating the number of deaths of COVID-19 cases in China
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