An assessment of China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement’s economic and environmental impacts on China

doi:10.1007/s11783-012-0432-9

Front Envir Sci Eng

2012, Vol. 6

Issue (6) : 849-859 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11783-012-0432-9

RESEARCH ARTICLE

An assessment of China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement’s economic and environmental impacts on China

Zhaoyang LIU¹, Xianqiang MAO¹(

), Wei TANG¹, Tao HU², Peng SONG¹

1. School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 2. Policy Research Center of Environment and Economy, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Beijing 100029, China

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Abstract

Recently, China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea (Korea) are conducting a government-commissioned feasibility study on the Free Trade Agreement among the three countries (CJKFTA) to form a regional free trade zone in East Asia. Considering that freer trade can cause unexpected impact on domestic environment, there is a need to evaluate the environmental impact of such a trade policy. This move should be made to help negotiators understand and pay more attention to environmental issues during CJKFTA negotiations, and to help lobby with the government to carry out appropriate policy instruments for adaptation or mitigation. Following the Chain Reaction Assessment Method that integrates and links the elements of trade, production, and environment, the present research aims to quantitatively assess CJKFTA’s possible impact on China’s environment. This is done by estimating the variations of China’s major conventional pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission in two policy scenarios to represent CJKFTA’s scale and composition effects on China’s environment. Estimating the variations is based on a static Computable General Equilibrium model, working with Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) 7 database and China’s energy-environment statistics. Based on these assessments, CJKFTA is predicted to lead to notable environmental impact, including increased emissions of agricultural total nitrogen, agricultural total phosphorus, chemical oxygen demand, and GHGs. On the other hand, decreased emissions of industrial SO₂ and dust are also expected to happen. Suitable policies need to be made to combat negative effects and amplify positive ones, while aiming at a more sustainable regional freer trade system.

Keywords Free Trade Agreement Strategic Environmental Assessment Chain Reaction Assessment Method Computable General Equilibrium model Global Trade Analysis Project

Corresponding Author(s): MAO Xianqiang,Email:maoxq@bnu.edu.cn

Issue Date: 01 December 2012

Cite this article:

Zhaoyang LIU,Xianqiang MAO,Wei TANG, et al. An assessment of China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement’s economic and environmental impacts on China[J]. Front Envir Sci Eng, 2012, 6(6): 849-859.

URL:

https://academic.hep.com.cn/fese/EN/10.1007/s11783-012-0432-9
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fese/EN/Y2012/V6/I6/849

Fig.1 CRAM

Tab.1 Region and sector abbreviations in the CGE model

Tab.2 CJKFTA policy scenarios in this research

Tab.3 Variation rates of china’s exports and imports in two policy scenarios/%

Tab.4 Variation rates of production sectors’ outputs in china/%

Tab.5 CJKFTA’s impacts on macro-economy for the three countries

Fig.2 Variations of pollutant emissions in “full liberalization scenario” and “GTA protection scenario”

Tab.6 Variation rates of GHGs emission in China/%

Tab.7 Variation rates of emission intensity (emissions per unit GDP) index of 3 pollutants under different scenarios in China/%

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