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Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering

ISSN 2095-2201

ISSN 2095-221X(Online)

CN 10-1013/X

Postal Subscription Code 80-973

2018 Impact Factor: 3.883

Front. Environ. Sci. Eng.    2015, Vol. 9 Issue (4) : 712-724    https://doi.org/10.1007/s11783-015-0773-2
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Post-evaluation of a water pollution control plan: methodology and case study
Lin ZENG, Xin DONG, Siyu ZENG(), Tianzhu ZHANG, Jing LI, Jining CHEN
School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
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Abstract

China has developed more than 20 water pollution control plans for river basins (RBWPs) since 1996. However, the implementation has generally lagged. This paper proposes a three-step, post-evaluation methodology to analyze the implementation result of a RBWP and its influential factors. First, a multi-attribute evaluation method based on an index system is established to score the enforcement results of a RBWP. Indicators measure how well a RBWP has achieved its objectives, which include water quality compliance, pollution load control, project construction, financial inputs, and related management requirements. Second, an interpretive structural model is used to detect the significant factors that affect RBWP implementation. This model can effectively analyze the cause-effect chain and hierarchical relationship among variables. Five groups of factors were identified, namely, plan preparation, water resource endowment, policy, institution, and management. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are employed in the third step to evaluate the extent to which these factors have influenced the execution result of a RBWP, including pre-post contrast, scenario analysis, and correlation analysis. This research then post-evaluated the implementation of the Huai River Basin water pollution control plans (H-RBWPs) over a period of 10 years as a case study. Results showed that the implementation of the H-RBWPs was unsatisfactory during 2001–2005, although it improved during 2006–2010. The poor execution of these plans was partially caused by the underestimation of regional economic development in combination with ineffective industrial structure adjustment policies. Therefore, this case study demonstrates the feasibility and flexibility of the proposed post-evaluation methodology.

Keywords river basin      water pollution control plan      post plan evaluation      multi-attribute comprehensive evaluation      interpretive structural model      combined qualitative/quantitative method     
Corresponding Author(s): Siyu ZENG   
Online First Date: 02 February 2015    Issue Date: 25 June 2015
 Cite this article:   
Lin ZENG,Xin DONG,Siyu ZENG, et al. Post-evaluation of a water pollution control plan: methodology and case study[J]. Front. Environ. Sci. Eng., 2015, 9(4): 712-724.
 URL:  
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fese/EN/10.1007/s11783-015-0773-2
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fese/EN/Y2015/V9/I4/712
compliance index sub-indicator
water quality improvement B 1 ratio of sections that meet the planned water quality objectives for COD C 11
ratio of sections that meet the planned water quality objectives for N H 4 +-N C 12
ratio of sections that meet the planned water quality objectives for TN C 13
ratio of sections that meet the planned water quality objectives for TP C 14
pollution load control B 2 accomplishment ratio of planned COD load control objectives C 21
accomplishment ratio of planned N H 4 +-N load control objectives C 22
accomplishment ratio of planned TN load control objectives C 23
accomplishment ratio of planned TP load control objectives C 24
pollution control and treatment project construction B 3 accomplishment ratio of treatment capacity by planned municipal WWTP C 31
accomplishment ratio of treatment capacity by planned industrial WWT facilities C 32
accomplishment ratio of agricultural pollution control project construction C 33
accomplishment ratio of drinking water source protection project construction C 34
environmental protection investment B 4 ratio of actual investment to planned investment from the central government C 41
ratio of actual investment to planned investment from the local government C 42
surveillance and management B 5 execution rate of environmental impact assessment policy C 51
execution rate of three-synchronization policy C 52
Tab.1  Index system to assess RBWP enforcement results
Fig.1  ISM results for relationships among influencing factor
factors to be evaluated evaluation objective and contents evaluation method
RBWP preparation
factor
rationality check of water body quality demand qualitative survey
reliability verification of economic development and population growth forecasts pre-post contrast,
scenario analysis
natural
resources
endowment
factor
effect analysis of the intra-annual change in available water resources on water quality
effect analysis of the inter-annual variability of available water resources on water quality
analogy method
policy
factor
effectiveness analysis of water use and water-saving policies, industrial structure adjustment policies, industrial pollution control technology policies, agricultural structure adjustment policies, agricultural production source policies, agricultural production technology policies, rural sustainable development policies, and investment and financing policies pre-post contrast,
qualitative survey,
correlation analysis,
case study
institutional
factor
rationality verification of organization settings
rationality verification of institutional authority division
check for the existence of coordination mechanisms
case study,
qualitative survey
management
factor
analysis of fund management efficiency and effect
check for the capacity of the urban construction management sector, fund management sector, pricing and charging sector, and environmental surveillance sector
case study,
pre-post contrast,
qualitative survey
Tab.2  Methods to evaluate the factors influencing the enforcement of RBWPs
compliance index 2001–2005 2006–2010
Henan
Province
Anhui
Province
Jiangsu
Province
Shandong
Province
Entire
Basin
Henan
Province
Anhui
Province
Jiangsu
Province
Shandong
Province
Entire
Basin
water quality improvement 47.5 50.0 44.5 50.0 47.3 52.6 87.5 69.6 41.9 59.6
pollutant load control 45.0 50.0 9.1 19.3 50.0 89.9 73.0 56.2 100.0 96.7
project construction and operation 64.0 73.3 68.7 84.0 66.0 90.8 91.8 94.5 98.3 94.5
environmental investmenta) 47.0 65.0 56.1 53.8 55.4
surveillance and management 99.9 96.2 99.8 99.8 99.7 99.9 99.1 99.8 80.0 91.2
enforcement results 60.7 66.9 55.6 61.4 63.7 83.3 87.8 80.0 80.1 85.5
Tab.3  Evaluation of H-RBWP enforcement results
province objective and actual GDP / (108 CNY at 2010 price) scenario analysis of COD emission / (104 ton) scenario analysis of N H 4 + -N emission / (104 ton)
objective GDP actual a)GDP deviation /% COD load permission actual COD load predicted COD load under the new scenario N H 4 +-N load permission actual N H 4 +-N load predicted N H 4 +-N load under the new scenario
Henan 21696.4 23092.4 6.4 12.7 17.1 16.1 3.2 2.6 2.4
Anhui 10000.0 12359.3 23.6 8.9 12.2 9.9 3.1 1.5 1.2
Jiangsu 37011.4 41425.5 11.9 19.1 15.4 13.8 1.3 2.3 2.0
Shandong 38287.7 39169.9 2.3 5.9 5.2 5.1 1.4 0.3 0.3
Tab.4  Provincial objective and actual GDP in 2010 and scenario analysis of pollutant discharge
Fig.2  Comparisons of (a) wastewater discharge amounts and (b) COD discharge intensities among industries in Shandong Province
Fig.3  Comparisons of economic contributions among industries in (a) Shandong Province and (b) Jiangsu Province
Fig.4  Comparison of wastewater discharge amounts among industries in Jiangsu Province
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