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Frontiers of Economics in China

ISSN 1673-3444

ISSN 1673-3568(Online)

CN 11-5744/F

邮发代号 80-978

Frontiers of Economics in China  2019, Vol. 14 Issue (1): 80-109   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-008-019-0006-2
  本期目录
Tackle China’s Economic Complexities by Deepening Reform and Opening Up: Macroeconomic Outlook, Policy Simulations, and Reform Implementation—A Summary of the Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report (2018–2019)
Kevin X.D. Huang1(), Guoqiang Tian2(), Yuqin Wang3()
1. Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN 37235, USA; Institute for Advanced Research, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200433, China
2. Institute for Advanced Research, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200433, China; Department of Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA; School of Economics, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200433, China
3. Institute for Advanced Research, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200433, China
 全文: PDF(757 KB)  
Abstract

Faced with complicated external and internal challenges, China’s economy continues to see sluggish growth in 2018. Rapid accumulation of household debts, exacerbation in income inequality, tightened real sector liquidity, escalated trade tensions with the US, and weakened external demand pose key problems in China’s macroeconomic landscape. The status quo is exacerbated by soaring uncertainty and weakening confidence in the face of persistent resource misallocations and institutional distortions, which cast more shadow on the already dampened consumer sentiment, sluggish private investment growth, and fallen foreign reserves. This summary report highlights the urgency of deeper structural reforms for tackling the various internal and external problems. Based on the IAR-CMM model, with both cyclical and secular factors taken into consideration, our baseline forecast of real GDP growth rate is 6.4% (6.1% using more reliable instead of the official data) in 2019. Alternative scenario analyses and policy simulations are conducted to assess the consequences of possible downside risks and the corresponding policy options needed to ensure the assumed growth targets. These analyses lead us to conclude that comprehensively deepening reform and opening up, which should be both rule-of-law based and market-oriented, with well-designed and well-conceived strategies that properly weigh short-, medium-, and long-term benefits and costs, should continue to be set as the guidance for China’s transformation into a phase with sustainable and high-quality growth.

Key wordsmacroeconomic outlook    alternative scenario analysis    policy simulation    risk    reform    complex status-quo    resource misallocations    market-oriented
出版日期: 2019-04-16
 引用本文:   
. [J]. Frontiers of Economics in China, 2019, 14(1): 80-109.
Kevin X.D. Huang, Guoqiang Tian, Yuqin Wang. Tackle China’s Economic Complexities by Deepening Reform and Opening Up: Macroeconomic Outlook, Policy Simulations, and Reform Implementation—A Summary of the Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report (2018–2019). Front. Econ. China, 2019, 14(1): 80-109.
 链接本文:  
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fec/CN/10.3868/s060-008-019-0006-2
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fec/CN/Y2019/V14/I1/80
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