Characterizing the effects of climate change on short-term post-disturbance forest recovery in southern China from Landsat time-series observations (1988–2016)
1. College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China 2. Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
Climate change, a recognized critical environmental issue, plays an important role in regulating the structure and function of forest ecosystems by altering forest disturbance and recovery regimes. This research focused on exploring the statistical relationships between meteorological and topographic variables and the recovery characteristics following disturbance of plantation forests in southern China. We used long-term Landsat images and the vegetation change tracker algorithm to map forest disturbance and recovery events in the study area from 1988 to 2016. Stepwise multiple linear regression (MLR), random forest (RF) regression, and support vector machine (SVM) regression were used in conjunction with climate variables and topographic factors to model short-term forest recovery using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The results demonstrated that the regene-rating forests were sensitive to the variation in temperature. The fitted results suggested that the relationship between the NDVI values of the forest areas and the post-disturbance climatic and topographic factors differed in regression algorithms. The RF regression yielded the best performance with an R2 value of 0.7348 for the validation accuracy. This indicated that slope and temperature, especially high temperatures, had substantial effects on post-disturbance vegetation recovery in southern China. For other mid-subtropical monsoon regions with intense light and heat and abundant rainfall, the information will also contribute to appropriate decisions for forest managers on forest recovery measures. Additionally, it is essential to explore the relationships between forest recovery and climate change of different vegetation types or species for more accurate and targeted forest recovery strategies.
Previously disturbed but spectrally restored to forest this year
Forest
6
Disturbed in this year
Nonforest
7
Post-disturbance nonforest
Nonforest
Tab.2
Fig.1
Fig.2
Eastern plot
Middle plot
Western plot
Disturbance year
Agreement measure/%
Disturbance year
Agreement measure/%
Disturbance year
Agreement measure/%
1989
74.54
1989
92.35
1989
78.15
1990
80.31
1990
91.50
1990
65.84
1991
59.89
1991
80.82
1991
69.31
1992
61.07
1992
71.10
1992
61.01
1995
84.03
1995
70.00
1995
72.54
2000
60.03
2000
60.48
2000
61.44
2001
67.20
2001
75.93
2001
77.89
2004
89.53
2004
60.57
2004
89.63
2005
81.27
2005
86.51
2005
72.32
2006
66.16
2006
74.24
2006
74.92
2007
86.83
2007
79.42
2007
70.08
2008
70.24
2008
73.91
2008
72.25
2009
66.82
2009
70.37
2009
62.31
2010
72.82
2010
73.40
2010
71.30
2011
76.61
2011
73.93
2011
71.65
2013
71.52
2012
78.34
2012
70.81
2014
69.36
2014
72.33
2014
80.12
2016
73.86
2016
74.25
2016
72.33
Tab.3
Fig.3
R2
MRE
RMSE
Maximum
Minimum
Mean
Stepwise LM
0.5475
0.0979
0.0028
0.9020
0.3348
0.6924
Random forest (RF)
0.9464
0.0345
0.0004
0.8430
0.1736
0.6920
SVM
0.9784
0.0196
0.0001
0.8719
0.1577
0.6911
Observed NDVI
0.883
0.1413
0.6924
Tab.4
R2
MRE
RMSE
Maximum
Minimum
Mean
Stepwise LM
0.5814
0.1616
0.0044
0.8578
0.3798
0.6773
Random forest (RF)
0.7667
0.0714
0.0017
0.8170
0.2124
0.6783
SVM
0.6870
0.0803
0.0021
0.8200
0.2425
0.6758
Observed NDVI
0.8265
0.1615
0.6762
Tab.5
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