Responses of a 234U/238U activity ratio in groundwater to earthquakes in the South Baikal Basin, Siberia
Sergei RASSKAZOV1,2(), Aigul ILYASOVA1, Sergei BORNYAKOV1,2, Irina CHUVASHOVA1,2, Eugene CHEBYKIN1,3
1. Institute of the Earth’s Crust, Siberian Branch of RAS, Irkutsk 664033, Russia 2. Irkutsk State University, Irkutsk 664033, Russia 3. Limnological Institute, Siberian Branch of RAS, Irkutsk 664033, Russia
In the western part of the South Baikal Basin, spatial-temporal distribution of earthquake epicenters shows quasi-periodic seismic reactivation. The largest earthquakes that occurred in 1999 (MW = 6.0) and 2008 (MW = 6.3) fall within seismic intervals of 1994–2003 and 2003–2012, respectively. In the seismic interval that began in 2013, the 234U/238U activity ratio (AR) in groundwater was monitored assuming its dependence on crack opening/closing that facilitated/prevented water circulation in an active boundary fault of the basin. Transitions from disordered, high-amplitude fluctuations of AR values to consistent, low-amplitude fluctuations in different monitoring sites were found to be sensitive indicators of both small seismic events occurring directly on the observation area, and of a large remote earthquake. The hydroisotopic responses to seismic events were consistent with monitoring data on deformation and temperature variations of rocks. The hydroisotopic effects can be applied for detecting a seismically dangerous state of an active fault and prediction of a large future earthquake.
. [J]. Frontiers of Earth Science, 2020, 14(4): 711-737.
Sergei RASSKAZOV, Aigul ILYASOVA, Sergei BORNYAKOV, Irina CHUVASHOVA, Eugene CHEBYKIN. Responses of a 234U/238U activity ratio in groundwater to earthquakes in the South Baikal Basin, Siberia. Front. Earth Sci., 2020, 14(4): 711-737.
Reactivation of the western fragment in the Obruchev Fault (February 25–September 21, 2005)
Koty reactivation (January 8–July 21, 2013)
B
Development of seismic processes in the Khamardaban land branch (January 11–March 6, 2006)
Murino reactivation within inundated area of the lake (August 11, 2013–July 20, 2014)
C
Peschanaya-Snezhnaya epicentral band (February 12–December 6,2007)
Activity of the Goloustnoe and Koty epicentral clusters (January 13, 2015–August 29, 2016)
D
Migration of epicenters from the Snezhnaya cluster to the Kultuk Village and back with clockwise rotation (January 2–31, 2008), individual earthquake near the Kultuk Village (May 4, 2008)
Phase D1: activity of the Murino part of the Goloustnoe-Murino epicentral line (December 14, 2016–October 10, 2017), phase D2: activity of the Listvyanka–Posol’skaya Bank epicentral line (March 16–July 31, 2018), probable additional events (2020 or later)
Tab.1
Fig.4
Fig.5
Fig.6
Fig.7
Element concentrations in measured solutions/(mg·L−1)
<0.001
0.001–0.1
0.1–1
>1
RSD/%
>25
25–10
10–5
5
Tab.2
Fig.8
Fig.9
Fig.10
Fig.11
Fig.12
Sample location
U/(µg·L–1)
234U/238U AR
PRE (1s) /%
Sr/(µg·L–1)
87Sr/86Sr
±2s
Site 8
3.30
2.33
0.72
123
0.711328
0.000010
Site 9
0.17
2.53
0.82
158
0.712377
0.000009
Site 27
0.27
3.26
0.79
65
0.705341
0.000009
Site 14k
0.42
1.14
1.10
140
0.717888
0.000009
Southern Baikal
0.45
1.96
0.80
99
0.708629
0.000009
Tab.3
Fig.13
Fig.14
Fig.15
Fig.16
Fig.17
Fig.18
1
V G Belichenko, L Z Reznitsky, V A Makrygina, I G Barash (2006). Terranes of the Baikal–Khubsugul fragment of the Central Asian mobile belt of Paleozoides: state of a problem. Geodynamic evolution of the lithosphere in the Central Asian mobile belt. In: Conference Proceedings 4(1) of an Ocean to a Continent. Irkutsk: Institute of the Earth crust SB RAS, 37–40
2
S V Boldina, G N Kopylova (2017). Effects of the January 30, 2016, Mw=7.2 Zhupanovsky Earthquake on the water level variations in wells YuZ-5 and E-1 in Kamchatka. Geodynamics & Tectonophysics, 8(4): 863–880 https://doi.org/10.5800/GT-2017-8-4-0321
3
S A Bornyakov, A I Miroshnichenko, D Salko (2015). Diagnostics of pre-seismogenic state of heterogeneous environments according to the deformation monitoring. Dokl Earth Sci, 468(1): 84–87
4
S A Bornyakov, J Ma, A I Miroshnichenko, Y Guo, D V Salko, F L Zuev 2017. Diagnostics of meta-instable state of seismically active fault. Geodynamics & Tectonophysics 8 (4): 989–998 https://doi.org/10.5800/GT-2017-8-4-0328
5
J Cizdziel, D Farmer, V Hodge, K Lindley, K Stetzenbach (2005). 234U/238U isotope ratios in groundwater from Southern Nevada: a comparison of alpha counting and magnetic sector ICP-MS. Sci Total Environ, 350(1-3): 248–260 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2004.12.014
pmid: 16227084
6
F Chabaux, M Granet, P Larqué, J Riotte, E V Skliarov, O Skliarova, L Alexeieva, F Risacher (2011). Geochemical and isotopic (Sr, U) variations of lake waters in the Ol’khon region, Siberia, Russia: Origin and paleoenvironmental implications. C R Geosci, 343(7): 462–470 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2011.07.004
7
P I Chalov (1975). Isotope Fractionation of Natural Uranium. Frunze: Ilim
8
E P Chebykin, E L Goldberg, N S Kulikova, N A Zhuchenko, O G Stepanova, Y A Malopevnaya (2007). Method of determination of the isotopic composition of authigenic uranium in the bottom sediments of Lake Baikal. Russ Geol Geophys, 48(6): 604–616 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rgg.2007.06.008
9
E P Chebykin, S V Rasskazov, E N Vodneva, A M Ilyasova, I S Chuvashova, S A Bornyakov, A K Seminsky, S V Snopkov (2015). The first results of monitoring 234U/238U in water from active faults of the western coast of Southern Baikal. Dokl Earth Sci, 460(4): 464–467
10
V V Cherdyntsev (1969). Uranium-234. Moscow: Atomizdat
11
V V Cherdyntsev (1973). Nuclear Volcanology. Moscow: Nauka
12
Y Chia, J J Chiu, Y H Chiang, T P Lee, C W Liu (2008). Spatial and temporal changes of groundwater level induced by thrust faulting. Pure Appl Geophys, 165(1): 5–16 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-007-0293-5
13
A V Chipizubov, O P Smekalin (1999). Paleoseismodislocations and related paleoearthquakes at the Main Sayan Fault zone. Russ Geol Geophys, 40(6): 936–937
14
L Claesson, A Skelton, C Graham, C Dietl, M Mörth, P Torssander, I Kockum (2004). Hydrogeochemical changes before and after a major earthquake. Geology, 32(8): 641–644 https://doi.org/10.1130/G20542.1
S Crampin, Y Gao, J Bukits (2015). A review of retrospective stress-forecasts of earthquakes and eruptions. Phys Earth Planet Inter, 245: 76–87 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pepi.2015.05.008
17
A A Dobrynina, V A Sankov (2008). Destination ripping in earthquake hypocenters as an indicator of a propagating destructive process (Baikal rift system). In: Conference Proceedings 6(1) of Geodynamic evolution of the lithosphere in the Central Asian belt (from ocean to continent). Irkutsk: Institute of the Earth’s crust SB RAS, 110–112
18
D N Edgington, J A Robbins, S M Colman, K A Orlandini, M P Gustin (1996). Uranium-series disequilibrium, sedimentation, diatom frustules and paleoclimate change in Lake Baikal. Earth Planet Sci Lett, 142(1-2): 29–42 https://doi.org/10.1016/0012-821X(96)00085-4
19
R C Finkel (1981). Uranium concentrations and 234U/238U activity ratios in fault-associated groundwater as possible earthquake precursors. Geophys Res Lett, 8(5): 453–456 https://doi.org/10.1029/GL008i005p00453
20
N A Florensov (1968). Baikal Rift Zone and Some Problems of Its Study. Moscow: Nauka, 40–56
21
E L Goldberg, M A Grachev, D Edgington, J Navier, L André, E P Chebykin, O I Shulpyakov (2001). Direct U–Th dating of the two recent interglacials in the sediments of Lake. Baikal. Dokl Earth Sci, 380(6): 805–808
22
L Halicz, I Segal, I Gavrieli, A Lorber, Z Karpas (2000). Determination of the 234U/238U ratio in water samples by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Anal Chim Acta, 422(2): 203–208 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0003-2670(00)01071-0
23
D R Hutchinson, A J Golmshtok, L P Zonenshain, T C Moore, C A Scholz, K Klitgord (1992). Depositional and tectonic framework of the rift basins of Lake Baikal from multichannel seismic data. Geology, 20(7): 589–592 https://doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(1992)020<0589:DATFOT>2.3.CO;2
24
A G Johnson, R L Kovach, A Nur (1974). Fluid-pressure variations and fault creep in Central California. Tectonophysics, 23(3): 257–266 https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(74)90025-0
K G Levi, S M Babushkin, A A Badardinov, V Yu Buddo, G V Larkin, A I Miroshnichenko, V A Sankov, V V Ruzhich, X K Wong, D Delvo, S Coleman (1995). Active tectonics of the Baikal depression. Russ Geol Geophys, 36(10): 154–163
27
B Li, Z Shi, G Wang, C Liu (2019). Earthquake-related hydrochemical changes in thermal springs in the Xianshuihe Fault zone, Western China. J Hydrol, 579: 124175
28
N A Logatchev (1974). Sayan-Baikal and Stanovoy highlands. In: Highlands of Pribaikal and Transbaikal. Moscow: Nauka
29
K Maher, D J DePaolo, J N Christensen (2006). U–Sr isotopic speedometer: fluid flow and chemical weathering rates in aquifers. Geochim Cosmochim Acta, 70(17): 4417–4435 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2006.06.1559
30
Map of earthquake epicenters in the last ten days (2018). The Baikal Branch of the Geophysical Survey, Irkutsk. Available at
31
V I Melnikova, N A Gileva, S S Arefiev, V V Bykova, O K Masalskiy (2012). The Kultuk Earthquake in 2008 with Mw= 6.3 in the south of Lake Baikal: spatial-temporal analysis of seismic activity. Izvestiya. Physics of the Solid Earth, 48(11): 44–62
32
J B Paces, K R Ludwig, Z E Peterman, L A Neymark (2002). 234U/238U evidence for local recharge and patterns of groundwater flow in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, USA. Appl Geochem, 17(6): 751–779 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0883-2927(02)00037-9
33
C Pin, J F S Zalduegui (1997). Sequential separation of light rare-earth elements, thorium and uranium by miniaturized extraction chromatography: application to isotopic analyses of silicate rocks. Anal Chim Acta, 339(1-2): 79–89 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0003-2670(96)00499-0
34
W Plastino, G F Panza, C Doglioni, M L Frezzotti, A Peccerillo, P De Felice, F Bella, P P Povinec, S Nisi, L Ioannucci, P Aprili, M Balata, M L Cozzella, M Laubenstein (2011). Uranium groundwater anomalies and active normal faulting. J Radioanal Nucl Chem, 288(1): 101–107 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10967-010-0876-y
35
N A Radziminovich, V I Melnikova, V A Sankov, K G Levi (2006). Seismicity and seismotectonic deformation of crust in the South Baikal Basin, Izvestiya. Physics of the Solid Earth, 42(11): 44–62
36
S V Rasskazov, E P Chebykin, A M Ilyasova, E N Vodneva, I S Chuvashova, S A Bornyakov, A K Seminsky, S V Snopkov, V V Chechel’nitsky, N A Gileva (2015). Creating the Kultuk polygon for earthquake prediction: variations of (234U/238U) and 87Sr/86Sr in groundwater from active faults at the western shore of Lake Baikal. Geodynamics & Tectonophysics 6 (4): 519–553 https://doi.org/10.5800/GT-2015-6-4-0192
37
S V Rasskazov, A M Ilyasova, I S Chuvashova, E P Chebykin (2018). The 234U/238U variations in groundwater from the Mondy area in response to earthquakes at the termination of the Tunka Valley in the Baikal Rift System. Geodynamics & Tectonophysics 9(4): 1217–1234 https://doi.org/10.5800/GT-2018-9-4-0392
38
S V Rasskazov, T A Yasnygina, I S Chuvashova, E A Mikheeva, S V Snopkov (2013). The Kultuk Volcano: spatial-temporal change of magmatic sources at the western terminus of the South Baikal Basin between 18 and 12 Ma. Geodynamics & Tectonophysics 4 (2): 135–168 https://doi.org/10.5800/GT2013420095
39
D V Reddy, P Nagabhushanam, B S Sukhija (2011). Earthquake (M= 5.1) induced hydrogeochemical and d18O changes: validation of aquifer breaching-mixing model in Koyna, India. Geophys J Int, 184(1): 359–370 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04838.x
40
J Riotte, F Chabaux (1999). (234U/238U) activity ratios in freshwaters as tracers of hydrological processes: the Strengbach watershed (Vosges, France). Geochim Cosmochim Acta, 63(9): 1263–1275 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-7037(99)00009-5
41
V V Ruzhich (1997). Seismotectonic Destruction in the Crust of the Baikal Rift Zone. Novosibirsk: Publishing House of SB RAS
42
V A Sankov, A V Lukhnev, A I Miroshnichenko, A A Dobrynin, S V Ashurkov, L M Byzov, M G Dembelov, E Calais, J Deversher (2014). Modern horizontal movement and seismic activity south of the Baikal basin (Baikal rift system). Physics of the Earth, 6: 70–79
43
A A Shafeev (1970). Precambrian of the South-Western Pribaikalye and Khamar-Daban. Moscow: Nauka
44
C C Shen, R Lawrence Edwards, H Cheng, J A Dorale, R B Thomas, S Bradley Moran, S E Weinstein, H N Edmonds (2002). Uranium and thorium isotopic and concentration measurements by magnetic sector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Chem Geol, 185(3–4): 165–178 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0009-2541(01)00404-1
45
S I Sherman (2009). A tectonophysical model of a seismic zone: experience of development based on the example of the Baikal rift system. Izvestiya. Physics of the Solid Earth, 45(11): 938–951 https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351309110020
46
S I Sherman (2013). Deformation waves as a trigger mechanism of seismic activity in seismic zones of the continental lithosphere. Geodynamics & Tectonophysics 4 (2): 83–117. https://doi.org/10.5800/GT2013420093
47
S I Sherman (2014). The Seismic Process, and Earthquake Prediction: Tectonophysical Concept. Novosibirsk: Academic Publishing House “Geo”
48
Z Shi, G Wang, M Manga, C Y Wang (2015). Mechanism of co-seismic water level change following four great earthquakes — insights from co-seismic responses throughout the Chinese mainland. Earth Planet Sci Lett, 430: 66–74 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2015.08.012
49
G A Sobolev (1993). Fundamentals of Earthquake Prediction. Moscow: Nauka
50
G A Sobolev, A A Lyubshin Jr, N A Zakrzhevskaya (2005). Synchronization of microseismic variations within minute range of periods. Izvestiya. Physics of the Solid Earth, 41(8): 3–27
51
V P Solonenko, (1974). Seismogeology and the problem of prediction of earthquakes. Geology and Geophysics 5: 168–178
52
B S Sukhija, D V Reddy, P Nagabhushanam, B Kumar (2010). Significant temporal changes in13C in dissolved inorganic carbon of groundwater related to reservoir-triggered seismicity. Seismol Res Lett, 81(2): 218–224 https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.81.2.218
53
V Y Timofeev, E N Kalish, Y F Stus, D G Ardyukov, G P Arnautov, M G Smirnov, A V Timofeev, D A Nosov, I S Sizikov, E V Boyko, E I Gribanova (2013). Gravity variations and modern geodynamics southwestern part of the Baikal region. Geodynamics & Tectonophysics 4 (2): 135–168 https://doi.org/10.5800/GT2013420094
R M Wang, C F You (2013). Uranium and strontium isotopic evidence for strong submarine groundwater discharge in an estuary of a mountainous island: a case study in the Gaoping River estuary. Mar Chem, 157: 106–116 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marchem.2013.09.004
56
V L Zverev, N I Dolidze, A I Spiridonov (1975). Anomaly of even isotopes of uranium in groundwater of seismically active regions of Georgia. Geochem Int, (11): 1720–1724