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Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering

ISSN 2095-2430

ISSN 2095-2449(Online)

CN 10-1023/X

邮发代号 80-968

2019 Impact Factor: 1.68

Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering  2013, Vol. 7 Issue (3): 276-287   https://doi.org/10.1007/s11709-013-0207-9
  RESEARCH ARTICLE 本期目录
Inverse Gaussian process-based corrosion growth modeling and its application in the reliability analysis for energy pipelines
Inverse Gaussian process-based corrosion growth modeling and its application in the reliability analysis for energy pipelines
Hao QIN, Shenwei ZHANG, Wenxing ZHOU()
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Western University, London N6A 5B9, Canada
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Abstract

This paper describes an inverse Gaussian process-based model to characterize the growth of metal-loss corrosion defects on energy pipelines. The model parameters are evaluated using the Bayesian methodology by combining the inspection data obtained from multiple inspections with the prior distributions. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation techniques are employed to numerically evaluate the posterior marginal distribution of each individual parameter. The measurement errors associated with the ILI tools are considered in the Bayesian inference. The application of the growth model is illustrated using an example involving real inspection data collected from an in-service pipeline in Alberta, Canada. The results indicate that the model in general can predict the growth of corrosion defects reasonably well. Parametric analyses associated with the growth model as well as reliability assessment of the pipeline based on the growth model are also included in the example. The proposed model can be used to facilitate the development and application of reliability-based pipeline corrosion management.

Key wordspipeline    metal-loss corrosion    inverse Gaussian process    measurement error    hierarchical Bayesian    Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
收稿日期: 2013-02-21      出版日期: 2013-09-05
Corresponding Author(s): ZHOU Wenxing,Email:wzhou@eng.uwo.ca   
 引用本文:   
. Inverse Gaussian process-based corrosion growth modeling and its application in the reliability analysis for energy pipelines[J]. Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering, 2013, 7(3): 276-287.
Hao QIN, Shenwei ZHANG, Wenxing ZHOU. Inverse Gaussian process-based corrosion growth modeling and its application in the reliability analysis for energy pipelines. Front Struc Civil Eng, 2013, 7(3): 276-287.
 链接本文:  
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fsce/CN/10.1007/s11709-013-0207-9
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fsce/CN/Y2013/V7/I3/276
ILI-reported depthfield-measured depth in 2010
200020042007
min (%wt)33612
max (%wt)56556065
mean (%wt)27282732
Tab.1  
Fig.1  
Fig.2  
Fig.3  
Fig.4  
Fig.5  
parameterunitdistribution typenominal valuemeanstandard deviationsource
Dmmdeterministic508508-[17]
wtmmnormal5.565.560.25[12]
Lmmlognormal-3015[12]
σuMPanormal45649214.78[18]
pMPaGumbel5.665.930.12[12]
ζ-Gumbel1.001.080.29[19]
Tab.2  
Fig.6  
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