Jack up is a mobile unit used for oil and gas exploration and production in offshore fields. On demand, the unit is moved and installed in a given location and used for a period up to 12 months before being un-installed and moved to another location. Due to its mobility and re-usability, when the unit is offered for use in a given offshore location, its suitability in terms of safe operation is evaluated in accordance with the guidelines of Site Specific Assessment (SSA) of jack up. When the unit failed safety assessment criteria, the guideline recommended that it is re-assessed by increasing the complexity of the assumptions and methods used. Reliability analysis theories are one of the frameworks recommended for the safety assessment of the units. With recent developments in uncertainty and reliability analysis of structures subject to stochastic excitation, this study aims at providing a review on the past developments in jack up reliability analysis and to identify possible future directions. The results from literature reviewed shows that failure probabilities vary significantly with analysis method used. In addition, from the variants of reliability analysis approach, the method of time dependent reliability for dynamic structures subject to stochastic excitation have not been implemented on jack ups. Consequently, suggestions were made on the areas that need further examination for improvement of the efficiency in safety assessment of the units using reliability theories.
. [J]. Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering, 2018, 12(4): 504-514.
Ahmad IDRIS, Indra Sati Hamonangan HARAHAP, Montasir Osman Ahmed ALI. Jack up reliability analysis: An overview. Front. Struct. Civ. Eng., 2018, 12(4): 504-514.
Ditlevsen O, Madsen H O. Structural Reliability Methods. Copenhagen: Department of Mechanical Engineering, Technical Unversity of Denmark, 2007
6
Onoufriou T, Forbes V J. Developments in structural system reliability assessment of fixed steel offshore platforms. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2001, 71(2): 189–199 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8320(00)00095-8
7
Ching J, Au S K, Beck J L. Reliability estimation for dynamical systems subject to stochastic excitation using subset simulation with splitting. Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering, 2005, 194(12–16): 1557–1579 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cma.2004.05.028
8
Sudret B, Defaux G, Pendola M. Time-variant finite element reliability analysis—Application to the durability of cooling towers. Structural Safety, 2005, 27(2): 93–112 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2004.05.001
9
Andrzej S, Nowak K, Collins R. Reliability of Structures. Boca Rato: CRC Press, 2012
10
Bai Y, Cao Y, Kim Y, Yang Y, Jiang H. Time-dependent reliability assessment of offshore jacket platforms. Ships and Offshore Structures, 2015
11
Shin J, Lee I. Reliability analysis and reliability-based design optimization of roadway horizontal curves using a first-order reliability method. Engineering Optimization, 2015, 47(5): 622–641 https://doi.org/10.1080/0305215X.2014.908871
12
Gaspar B, Bucher C, Guedes Soares C. Reliability analysis of plate elements under uniaxial compression using an adaptive response surface approach. Ships and Offshore Structures, 2015, 10(2): 145–161 https://doi.org/10.1080/17445302.2014.912047
Yang Y, Yao J P, Yang X J, Yang Z B. The MonteCarlo method in application of fatigue life reliability analysis. Applied Mechanics & Materials, 2013, 395-396: 822–825
15
Hu Z, Du X. Time-dependent reliability analysis with joint upcrossing rates. Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization, 2013, 48(5): 893–907 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00158-013-0937-2
16
Dong W, Moan T, Gao Z. Fatigue reliability analysis of the jacket support structure for offshore wind turbine considering the effect of corrosion and inspection. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2012, 106: 11–27 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2012.06.011
17
Guo T, Frangopol D M, Chen Y. Fatigue reliability assessment of steel bridge details integrating weigh-in-motion data and probabilistic finite element analysis. Computers & Structures, 2012, 112–113: 245–257 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compstruc.2012.09.002
18
Feng G Q, Garbatov Y, Guedes Soares C. Fatigue reliability of a stiffened panel subjected to correlated crack growth. Structural Safety, 2012, 36–37: 39–46 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2011.09.002
19
He W, Liu J, Xie D. Probabilistic life assessment on fatigue crack growth in mixed-mode by coupling of Kriging model and finite element analysis. Engineering Fracture Mechanics, 2015, 139: 56–77 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engfracmech.2015.03.040
20
Yang J, Zhang W, Liu Y. Existence and insufficiency of the crack closure for fatigue crack growth analysis. International Journal of Fatigue, 2014, 62: 144–153 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijfatigue.2013.10.015
21
Qin H, Zhou W. Reliability analysis of corroding pipelines considering the growth and generation of corrosion defects. Materials and Joining; Risk and Reliability, 2014, 3: V003T12A010
22
Melchers R E. The effect of corrosion on the structural reliability of steel offshore structures. Corrosion Science, 2005, 47(10): 2391–2410 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.corsci.2005.04.004
23
Schellin T E, Perić M, el Moctar O. Wave-in-deck load analysis for a Jack-up platform. Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, 2011, 133(2): 21303 https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4002047
24
Andrieu-Renaud C, Sudret B, Lemaire M. The PHI2 method: A way to compute time-variant reliability. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2004, 84(1): 75–86 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2003.10.005
25
Bisaggio H C, Netto T A. Predictive analyses of the integrity of corroded pipelines based on concepts of structural reliability and Bayesian inference. Marine Structures, 2015, 41: 180–199 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marstruc.2015.02.003
26
Lee L S, Estrada H, Baumert M. Time-dependent reliability analysis of FRP rehabilitated pipes. Journal of Composites for Construction, 2010, 14(3): 272–279 https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CC.1943-5614.0000075
Stefanou G. The stochastic finite element method: Past, present and future. Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering, 2009, 198(9–12): 1031–1051 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cma.2008.11.007
29
Ghanem R G, Spanos P D. Stochastic Finite Elements: A Spectral Approach. New York: Springer, 1991, 1–222
30
Panasenko G. Multi-Scale Modelling for Structures and Composites.New York: Springer, 2005
31
Presho M, Målqvist A, Ginting V. Density estimation of two-phase flow with multiscale and randomly perturbed data. Advances in Water Resources, 2010, 33(9): 1130–1141 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2010.07.001
Sakata S, Okuda K, Ikeda K. Stochastic analysis of laminated composite plate considering stochastic homogenization problem. Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering, 2015, 9(2): 141–153 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11709-014-0286-2
34
Sriramula S, Chryssanthopoulos M K. Quantification of uncertainty modelling in stochastic analysis of FRP composites. Composites. Part A, Applied Science and Manufacturing, 2009, 40(11): 1673–1684 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compositesa.2009.08.020
35
Ghasemi H, Rafiee R, Zhuang X, Muthu J, Rabczuk T. Uncertainties propagation in metamodel-based probabilistic optimization of CNT/polymer composite structure using stochastic multi-scale modeling. Computational Materials Science, 2014, 85: 295–305 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.commatsci.2014.01.020
36
Qin H, Zhang S, Zhou W. Inverse Gaussian process-based corrosion growth modeling and its application in the reliability analysis for energy pipelines. Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering, 2013, 7(3): 276–287 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11709-013-0207-9
37
Idris A, Harahap I, Ali M. Efficiency of trigonometric and eigen function methods for simulating ocean wave profile. Indian Journal of Science and Technology, 2017, 10(4) https://doi.org/10.17485/ijst/2017/v10i4/110894
38
Vanmarcke E H. On the distribution of the first-passage time for normal stationary random processes. Journal of Applied Mechanics, 1975, 42(1): 215 https://doi.org/10.1115/1.3423521
39
Hu Z, Du X. Reliability analysis for hydrokinetic turbine blades. Renewable Energy, 2012, 48(6): 251–262
40
Valdebenito M A, Jensen H A, Labarca A A. Estimation of first excursion probabilities for uncertain stochastic linear systems subject to Gaussian load. Computers & Structures, 2014, 138: 36–48 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compstruc.2014.02.010
Chan W K. Theory and Applications of Monte Carlo Simulations.Rijeka: InTech, 2013
43
Papaioannou I, Papadimitriou C, Straub D. Sequential importance sampling for structural reliability analysis. Structural Safety, 2016, 62: 66–75 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2016.06.002
44
Schneider R, Thöns S, Straub D S. Reliability analysis and updating of deteriorating systems with subset simulation. Structural Safety, 2017, 64: 20–36 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2016.09.002
Zhao W, Fan F, Wang W. Non-linear partial least squares response surface method for structural reliability analysis. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2017, 161: 69–77 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2017.01.004
47
Ulaganathan S, Couckuyt I, Dhaene T, Degroote J, Laermans E. Performance study of gradient-enhanced kriging. Engineering with Computers, 2016, 32(1): 15–34 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00366-015-0397-y
48
Chojaczyk A A, Teixeira A P, Neves L C, Cardoso J B, Guedes S C. Review and application of artificial neural networks models in reliability analysis of steel structures. Structural Safety, 2015, 52(3): 78–89
49
Vu-Bac N, Lahmer T, Zhuang X, Nguyen-Thoi T, Rabczuk T. A software framework for probabilistic sensitivity analysis for computationally expensive models. Advances in Engineering Software, 2016, 100: 19–31 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advengsoft.2016.06.005
Yasseri S F, Mahani R B. Overturning reliability analysis of Jack-up platforms using spreadsheet. In: Proceedings of the Asme 32nd International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. New York: ASME, 2013
Azadi M R E A. The effect of possible spud-can punch through on the reliability index of neka drilling type Jack-up platform. Journal of Civil Engineering and Science, 2012, 1(3): 80–89
54
Shabakhty N. System failure probability of offshore Jack-up platforms in the combination of fatigue and fracture. Engineering Failure Analysis, 2011, 18(1): 223–243 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engfailanal.2010.09.002
55
Mirzadeh J, Kimiaei M, Cassidy M J. A framework to efficiently calculate the probability of failure of dynamically sensitive structures in a random sea. Ocean Engineering, 2015, 110: 215–226 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2015.09.054
56
Tromans P S, Anatruk A R, Hagemeijer P. New model for the kinematics of large ocean waves application as a design wave. In: Proceedings of the First International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference. New York: ISOPE, 1991
57
Mirzadeh J, Kimiaei M, Cassidy M J. Performance of an example Jack-up platform under directional random ocean waves. Applied Ocean Research, 2016, 54: 87–100 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apor.2015.10.002
58
Mirzadeh J, Kimiaei M, Cassidy M J. Effects of irregular nonlinear ocean waves on the dynamic performance of an example Jack-up structure during an extreme event. Marine Structures, 2016, 49: 148–162 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marstruc.2016.05.007
59
Azadi M R E. Influence of spud-can-soil interaction modeling and parameters on the reliability index of neka drilling Jack-up platform. In: ASME 2008: Safety Engineering, Risk Analysis, and Reliability Methods. New York: ASME, 2013
60
Van de Graaf J W, Tromans P S, Vanderschuren L, Jukui B H. Failure probability of a Jack-up under environmental loading in the central north sea. Marine Structures, 1996, 9 (1): 3–24
61
Cassidy M J, Taylor P H, Taylor R E, Houlsby G T. Evaluation of long-term extreme response statistics of Jack-up platforms. Ocean Engineering, 2002, 29(13): 1603–1631 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0029-8018(01)00110-X
62
Shabakhty N, Boonstra H, Gelder P V. System reliability of Jack-up structures based on fatigue degradation. Safety and Reliability, 2003, 1437–1780
63
Karunakaran D, Leira B J, Moan T. Reliability analysis of drag-dominated offshore structures. In: The Third International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference. Singapore: International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers, 1993
64
Frieze P A, Morandi A C, Birkinshaw M, Smith D, Dixon A. Fixed and Jack-up platforms: Basis for reliability assessment. Marine Structures, 1997, 10(2-4): 263–284 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8339(97)00001-4
65
Dier A F, Morandi A C, Smith D, Birkinshaw M, Dixon A. A comparison of jacket and jack-up structural reliability. Marine Structures, 2001, 14(4–5): 507–521 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8339(00)00052-6
66
Jensen J J, Capul J. Extreme response predictions for jack-up units in second order stochastic waves by FORM. Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, 2006, 21(4): 330–337 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.probengmech.2005.11.007
67
Shabakhty N. Comparing fatigue reliability of jack-up platforms based on selected nonlinear stress models. In: Proceedings of the 27th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. New York: ASME, 2008
68
Shabakhty N. Fracture reliability of Jack-up platforms under extreme environmental loads. In: Proceedings of the ASME 30th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. New York: ASME, 2008
69
Manuel L. A Study of the N Onlinearities, Dynamics, and Reliability of a Drag-Dominated Marine Structure. Palo Alto: Stanford University, 1992
70
Azadi M R E. Reliability study of neka Jack-up platform under SH-seismic waves, sea-waves and current with considering spud-can-soil interaction. Asme International Conference on Ocean, 2009: 505–514
Cassidy M J, Taylor R E, Houlsby G T. Analysis of Jack-up units using a constrained new wave methodology. Applied Ocean Research, 2001, 23(4): 221–234 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0141-1187(01)00005-0
74
Cassidy M J. Non-Linear Analysis of Jack-Up Structures Subjected to Random Waves. Oxford: University of Oxford, 1999
75
Daghigh M, Hengst S, Vrouwenvelder A, Boonstra H. Reliability Analysis of Dynamic Structures. Scientia Iranica, 2003, 10(1): 1–12
76
Valdebenito M A, Jensen H A, Labarca A A, He J, Au S K, Beck J L. Estimation of first excursion probabilities for uncertain stochastic linear systems subject to Gaussian load. Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, 2014, 24(3): 418–425
77
Sclavounos P D. Karhunen-Loeve representation of stochastic ocean waves. Proceedings Mathematical Physical & Engineering Sciences. 2012, 468(2145): 2574–2594
