This paper investigates the economic development within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from two perspectives—spatial pattern and influencing factors—to promote coordinated development across the area. This paper employs Moran's I test and local Getis-Ord G statistic from spatial statistics. Furthermore, it constructs a hierarchical spatial econometric model to facilitate empirical investigation. It is found that the overall economic development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area exhibits a mountainshaped” spatial pattern of the high-level homogeneous regions with “highhigh correlation” and the lowlevel homogeneous regions with “low-low correlation.” The internal difference in economic density is moderate, with an obvious trend of decrease year by year. Economic density shows a significant spatial positive correlation, with the expansion of the scope of areas exhibiting “high-high correlation.” The differences in economic density between hotspots and sub-hotspots have decreased, but the economic density of cold spots has failed to keep up with the development of other regions. The difference in factor input density among the influencing factors explains most of the differences in economic density among different regions. The results from the R&D capital investment coefficient indicate that in recent years, the effect of investments in urban scientific and technological innovation factors has been more extensive and uniform among the regions under its jurisdiction, but the spatial spillover effect of innovation factors at both layers is not significantly positive. Apart from the city’s location within the Greater Bay Area, the relative location of the jurisdictions within the city equally influences the economic development configuration of the Greater Bay Area. Although economic density in regions adjacent to cities outside the Greater Bay Area is notably lower than in other regions, their growth rate and production efficiency remain on par with other regions. T-test and model results underscore the rapid development of the areas encircling the bay. The coefficient of location dummy variables in areas adjacent to cities in the Greater Bay Area varies among cities. At a particular factor input density, some cities have higher output efficiency in areas contiguous to cities in the Greater Bay Area. This study uniquely adopts low-level city jurisdictions and high-level cities to shape a two-tiered hierarchical dataset with nested geographic units. This innovative approach fully leverages insights from distinct layers, delving into spatial interdependence and interplay across layers. This paper aims to explore the spatial pattern and influencing factors steering economic development in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. In doing so, it aims to identify problems and present pertinent policy recommendations.

The Guangdong-Hong KongMacao Greater Bay Area comprises a regional economy encompassing nine cities located in the Pearl River Delta region, in addition to the two special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macao. The process of regional economic integration within the Guangdong-Hong KongMacao Greater Bay Area traces its origins back to the commencement of China’s reform and opening up policies in 1978. It evolves from an initially spontaneous collaborative model, where front-end commercial activities are paired with rearend manufacturing facilities, to a deliberate form of collaboration underpinned by institutional interventions. This paper examines the fundamental characteristics of the regional economic integration within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. It specifically delves into an extensive analysis of the construction and development of this area. The discussion encompasses four significant theoretical and practical facets that shape the progress of the Greater Bay Area’s construction. These aspects include the synchronization of market integration within the Greater Bay Area, the harmonization of institutional frameworks, the convergence of the eastern and western sections of the Pearl River Estuary, and the amalgamation of regional innovations. Furthermore, the paper engages in an exploration of strategies designed to propel the advancement of the Greater Bay Area’s development. These strategies encompass collaborative initiatives, such as the joint development of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong adjacent region, the cooperative advancement of Hengqin Island by Zhuhai and Macao, the approach to integrating adjacent areas, and the interlock strategy aiming to connect the two pivotal urban centers of Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

The Guangdong-Hong KongMacao Greater Bay Area (the Greater Bay Area, the GBA) aims to facilitate in-depth cooperation among the Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao regions to create a worldclass bay area-based urban agglomeration. This endeavor seeks to guide China’s economy toward high-quality development and comprehensive opening-up. This paper examines the challenges and obstacles faced by Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao regarding regional coordinated development, thus putting forward the following standpoints. It proposes enhancing infrastructure interconnectivity to establish the GBA 1-hour Express Traffic Circle, thereby driving the construction of a worldclass international shipping and logistics hub. Furthermore, the paper advocates for establishing an industrial collaborative development system in the GBA, jointly creating a pilot zone for industrial transformation and upgrading, and further advancing market integration. Creating an international innovation corridor and innovation center for science and technology (S&T) industry is also essential. This initiative would center around critical sectors, improving S&T innovation chain, and building a talent cooperation demonstration zone. The paper also emphasizes the establishment of a transport and logistics hub for the Belt and Road Initiative, along with the joint development of a cultural, economic, and trade exchange platform under the “Belt and Road” framework. Leveraging the comparative advantages of the three regions, the paper underscores the importance of innovative collaboration models, fostering a mutually beneficial and complementary mechanism for synergistic development. These approaches aim to realize the integrated and innovative development of the GBA.

In the face of an increasingly complex and unstable external development environment, enhancing economic resilience has become a key task in the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. This paper analyzes the changes in the economic resilience of the Guangdong-Hong KongMacao Greater Bay Area and its constituent cities after the 2008 global financial crisis by virtue of the regional economic resilience assessment method proposed by Martin et al. It constructs an economic connection network for the Guangdong-Hong KongMacao Greater Bay Area using the data from corporate headquarters and branches of A-share listed companies to analyze its impact on the economic resilience of the Area. The study reveals the three following conclusions. Firstly, the economic resilience of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area generally outperforms the national average level, seeing a rapid boost over the recent years and exceeding the level witnessed during the 2008 financial crisis. However, there are marked disparities in the economic resilience of various cities within the Greater Bay Area, with Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Dongguan emerging as the most robust in this regard. Secondly, the economic connection network has a positive impact on the economic resilience of the cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. Specifically, there is a positive correlation between a city’s economic resilience and its centrality in the economic connection network. Such centrality exerts a positive spillover effect on the economic resilience of surrounding cities. Thirdly, from the perspective of industryspecific networks, circulation and service industry networks are more conducive to improving the economic resilience of a city. Given the significant role of the economic connection network in shaping regional and urban economic resilience, it is imperative for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to prioritize ensuring economic development security and enhancing economic resilience,promote the development of the economic connection network, and enhance the network centrality of its constituent cities. This can improve the economic resilience of itself and its constituent cities in an effective manner.

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