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Frontiers of Earth Science

ISSN 2095-0195

ISSN 2095-0209(Online)

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Front Earth Sci Chin    0, Vol. Issue () : 1-8    https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-009-0007-7
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Immediate impacts of the Wenchuan Earthquake on the prices and productions of grain and pork products
Xiangzheng DENG1,2(), Quansheng GE1, Zhigang XU1,2, Shaoqiang WANG1, Hongbo SU1, Qunou JIANG1, Jifu DU3, Yingzhi LIN1
1. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 2. Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 3. College of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
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Abstract

Based on field survey and statistical analysis, the immediate impacts of the Wenchuan Earthquake happened on May 12, 2008, are evaluated from two aspects, i.e., the influence on the prices and yields of grain and pork products in the local region and that on China. Wenchuan Earthquake, undoubtedly, has some negative effects on the local agricultural yields in Sichuan Province. It has caused immediate impacts on the grain and livestock breeding industry in the earthquake worst-hit counties. For example, due to the earthquake, the grain yields in Sichuan Province will decreased more than 0.4% and the pork productions decrease 5% at least. Thus, prices of grain and pork products are likely to rise in local mountainous areas over a short term. Our studying results that the disaster rate, the hazard rate and the complete loss rate of grain productions are 18%, 10% and 6% respectively in the earthquake worst-hit counties, while the disaster rate in the eastern plain areas even reach to 30%-49%. Even so, the results of model analysis for sample survey indicated that Wenchuan Earthquake has caused only marginal impacts on agricultural production, does not heavily hurt the stability of the prices and yields of grain and pork products at the national level. In other words, Wenchuan Earthquake had not affected the overall situation of national agricultural production. It is estimated that the reduction rate of national grain yield is as low as 0.006%, and the price changes of grain and pork products are no more than 0.5% and 2.2% respectively.
Keywords Wenchuan Earthquake      agricultural production      grain and pork products      Sichuan Province     
Corresponding Author(s): DENG Xiangzheng,Email:Dengxz.ccap@igsnrr.ac.cn   
Issue Date: 05 March 2009
 Cite this article:   
Xiangzheng DENG,Quansheng GE,Zhigang XU, et al. Immediate impacts of the Wenchuan Earthquake on the prices and productions of grain and pork products[J]. Front Earth Sci Chin, 0, (): 1-8.
 URL:  
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/10.1007/s11707-009-0007-7
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/Y0/V/I/1
Fig.1  Shake area of Wenchuan Earthquake
variableunitmeanstandard deviation
geophysical condition
-mean annual air temperature°C9.65.0
-accumulated temperature above 10°C°C3853.61445.4
-mean annual precipitationmm776.0312.8
-elevationm1513.61039.9
agricultural production characteristics
-average yield of grain104t18.817.6
-total sown area of grain104ha3.83.4
-irrigation area104ha1.91.5
-wheat yield104t4.04.6
-rice yield104t8.31.0
-maize yield104t3.74.8
-edible oil plant yield104t1.72.0
social and economic condition
-population104 person135.6162.8
-GDP104RMB15.539.3
management and Input
-amount of plastic film used in the fieldt426.2531.9
-amount of pesticide used in the fieldt384.7400.5
-power consumption in the rural areakWh80820.396120.0
Tab.1  Key variables used to identify the identical unit of agricultural production characteristics
itemsgrain sown areasgrain yieldsupply of living pigssupply of pigs in marketpork products
proportion of the considered items in the right columns of Sichuan province to those of China /%6.25.811.611.010.4
proportion of the considered items in the right columns of the worst-hit regions to those of Sichuan /%2826262928
proportion of the considered items in the right columns of the worst-hit regions to those of China /%1.71.53.03.22.9
impacts in short term
scenario Ⅰ:
loss of the considered items in the right columns by /% 0.40.45.05.0
resulting in the loss at the national level by /%0.0060.15
estimated price changes of the items in the right columns at national level /%0.020.36
scenario Ⅱ:
loss of the considered items in the right columns by /% 530
resulting in the loss at the national level by /%0.080.9
estimated price changes of the items in the right columns at national level /%0.252.2
impacts in medium and long term
scenario Ⅰ:
loss of the considered items in the right columns by /% 105.0
resulting in the loss at the national level by /%0.151.5
estimated price changes of the items in the right columns at national level /%0.221.4
scenario Ⅱ:
loss of the considered items in the right columns by /% 3075
resulting in the loss at the national level by /%0.452.2
estimated price changes of the items in the right columns at national level /%0.512.0
Tab.2  Impacts of Wenchuan Earthquake on price of grain and pork products
Fig.2  Spatial distribution of disaster area for the Spring crops in the worst-hit counties of Wenchuan Earthquake
Fig.3  Spatial distribution of hazard area for the Spring crops in the worst-hit counties of Wenchuan Earthquake
Fig.4  Spatial distribution of completely lost area for the Spring crops in the worst-hit counties of Wenchuan Earthquake
Fig.5  Spatial distribution of disaster area for breeding industry in the worst-hit counties of Wenchuan Earthquake
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[1] Lingling SHEN, Chong XU, Lianyou LIU. Interaction among controlling factors for landslides triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan, China Mw 7.9 earthquake[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2016, 10(2): 264-273.
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