Extreme value analysis of annual maximum water levels in the Pearl River Delta, China

doi:10.1007/s11707-009-0025-5

Front Earth Sci Chin

0, Vol.

Issue () : 154-163 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-009-0025-5

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Extreme value analysis of annual maximum water levels in the Pearl River Delta, China

Qiang ZHANG^1,2(

), Chong-Yu XU³, Yongqin David CHEN⁴, Chun-ling LIU⁴

1. Institute of Space and Earth Information Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; 2. Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-Sen University, GuangZhou 510275, China; 3. Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Norway; 4. Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

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Abstract

We analyzed the statistical properties of water level extremes in the Pearl River Delta using five probability distribution functions. Estimation of parameters was performed using the L-moment technique. Goodness-of-fit was done based on Kolmogorov-Smirnov’s statistic D (K-S D). The research results indicate that Wakeby distribution is the best statistical model for description of statistical behaviors of water level extremes in the study region. Statistical analysis indicates that water levels corresponding to different return periods and associated variability tend to be larger in the landward side of the Pearl River Delta and vice versa. A ridge characterized by higher water level can be identified expanding along the West River and the Modaomen channel, showing the impacts of the hydrologic process of the West River basin. Trough and higher grades of water level changes can be detected in the region drained by Xi’nanyong channel, Dongping channel, and mainstream of Pearl River. The Pearl River Delta region is characterized by low-lying topography and a highly-advanced socio-economy, and is heavily populated, being prone to flood hazards and flood inundation due to rising sea level and typhoons. Therefore, sound and effective countermeasures should be made for human mitigation to natural hazards such as floods and typhoons.

Keywords extreme values probability distribution functions annual maximum water level extreme value analysis Pearl River estuary

Corresponding Author(s): ZHANG Qiang,Email:zhangqnj@gmail.com

Issue Date: 05 June 2009

Cite this article:

Qiang ZHANG,Chong-Yu XU,Yongqin David CHEN, et al. Extreme value analysis of annual maximum water levels in the Pearl River Delta, China[J]. Front Earth Sci Chin, 0, (): 154-163.

URL:

https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/10.1007/s11707-009-0025-5
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/Y0/V/I/154

Fig.1 Location of the study region and gauging stations

Tab.1 Dataset of the water levels in the Pearl Delta

Tab.2 Sample size (N), mean, minimum, median, interquantile range (IQR), sample L-skewness, and maximum of annual maximum water levels (unit, m) for individual station

Tab.3 K-S’s statistic D computed from annual maximum water level series of individual gauging stations for five candidate probability functions

Fig.2 Statistical properties of annual maximum water level (m) of the Pearl River Delta. (a) mean, (b) minimum, (c) interquantile range, (d) maximum

Fig.3 Cumulative and probability distribution functions (Log normal, Generalized extreme value distribution, Pearson type III distribution, Wakeby distribution and Generalized Pareto distribution) of annual maximum water level series of Dasheng station

Tab.4 Parameter estimates (L-ME) of WAD and K-S’s statistic D computed from the annual maximum water level series of individual stations

Tab.5 Design values (unit: m) corresponding to various return periods (T=10, 30, 50, 70, 90 and 100 years) computed from the annual maximum water level series of individual stations

Fig.4 Spatial distribution of the estimated design values (unit: m) corresponding to various periods: (a)10-year period; (b)30-year period; (c)50-year period; (d)70-year period; (e)90-year period; and (f)100-year period

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