Diverse effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of China

doi:10.1007/s11707-017-0665-9

Front. Earth Sci.

2018, Vol. 12

Issue (2) : 408-419 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-017-0665-9

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Diverse effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of China

Jianmin QIAO¹, Deyong YU¹(

), Qianfeng WANG², Yupeng LIU¹

¹. Center for Human-Environment System Sustainability (CHESS), State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE); College of Resources Science & Technology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
². College of Environment and Resource, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350116, China

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Abstract

Both crop distribution and climate change are important drivers for crop production and can affect food security, which is an important requirement for sustainable development. However, their effects on crop production are confounded and warrant detailed investigation. As a key area for food production that is sensitive to climate change, the agro-pastoral transitional zone (APTZ) plays a significant role in regional food security. To investigate the respective effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production, the well-established GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted with different scenario designs in this study. From 1980 to 2010, the crop distribution for wheat, maize, and rice witnessed a dramatic change due to agricultural policy adjustments and ecological engineering-related construction in the APTZ. At the same time, notable climate change was observed. The simulation results indicated that the climate change had a positive impact on the crop production of wheat, maize, and rice, while the crop distribution change led to an increase in the production of maize and rice, but a decrease in the wheat production. Comparatively, crop distribution change had a larger impact on wheat (−1.71 × 10⁶ t) and maize (8.53 × 10⁶ t) production, whereas climate change exerted a greater effect on rice production (0.58 × 10⁶ t), during the period from 1980 to 2010 in the APTZ. This study is helpful to understand the mechanism of the effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production, and aid policy makers in reducing the threat of future food insecurity.

Keywords EPIC model crop production climate trends scenario designs crop distribution

Corresponding Author(s): Deyong YU

Just Accepted Date: 19 June 2017 Online First Date: 19 July 2017 Issue Date: 09 May 2018

Cite this article:

Jianmin QIAO,Deyong YU,Qianfeng WANG, et al. Diverse effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of China[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2018, 12(2): 408-419.

URL:

https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/10.1007/s11707-017-0665-9
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/Y2018/V12/I2/408

Fig.1 Location of the agro-pastoral transitional ecozone in northern China, (a) land use and land cover in 2010, (b) crop distribution of major crops in 2010. Each grid cell contains one or more crops (wheat, maize, or rice). The grid value represents the major crop which has the largest cultivated area.

Tab.1 Scenarios used in this study

Fig.2 Validation of the EPIC model, (a) wheat, (b) maize, and (c) rice.

Fig.3 Changes in crop cultivation areas from 1980 to 2010, (a) wheat, (b) maize, and (c) rice; (d) crop areas for wheat, maize, and rice in 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010.

Fig.4 (a) Crop production of wheat, maize, and rice from 1980 to 2010; the linear trend of crop production for (b) wheat, (c) maize, and (d) rice.

Fig.5 The change in climatic variables in the APTZ from 1980 to 2010, (a) total radiation, (b) annual mean maximum temperature, (c) annual mean minimum temperature, (d) annual mean precipitation, (e) annual mean relative humidity, and (f) annual mean wind speed.

Fig.6 Spatial patterns of linear trends in annual crop production for scenarios C1–C7 from 1980 to 2010.

Fig.7 Variation of crop production under C1–C7 scenarios for wheat (a), maize (b), and rice (c) from 1980 to 2010 in the APTZ.

Fig.8 Spatial patterns of crop production under different scenarios. Scenario LC1 denotes the crop distribution for the three crops and the climate in 2010. Scenario LC2 denotes the crop distribution for the three crops in 2010 and the climate in 1980. Scenario LC3 denotes the crop distribution for the three crops in 1980 and the climate in 2010.

Fig.9 Crop production of wheat, maize, and rice under different scenarios.

Tab.2 Linear trend of crop production under different scenarios

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