Quantitative attribution of Northern Hemisphere temperatures over the past 2000 years

doi:10.1007/s11707-023-1086-6

Front. Earth Sci.

2023, Vol. 17

Issue (2) : 632-641 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-023-1086-6

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Quantitative attribution of Northern Hemisphere temperatures over the past 2000 years

Feng SHI^1,²(

), Mingfang TING³, Zhengtang GUO^1,^2,⁴

¹. Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
². CAS Center for Excellence in Life and Paleoenvironment, Beijing 100044, China
³. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
⁴. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

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Abstract

Quantitative assessment of natural internal variability and externally forced responses of Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperatures is necessary for understanding and attributing climate change signals during past warm and cold periods. However, it remains a challenge to distinguish the robust internally generated variability from the observed variability. Here, large-ensemble (70 member) simulations, Energy Balance Model simulation, temperature ensemble reconstruction, and three dominant external forcings (volcanic, solar, and greenhouse gas) were combined to estimate the internal variability of NH summer (June–August) temperatures over the past 2000 years (1–2000 CE). Results indicate that the Medieval Climate Anomaly was predominantly attributed to centennial-scale internal oscillation, accounting for an estimated 104% of the warming anomaly. In contrast, the Current Warm Period is influenced mainly by external forcing, contributing up to 90% of the warming anomaly. Internal temperature variability offsets cooling by volcanic eruptions during the Late Antique Little Ice Age. These findings have important implications for the attribution of past climate variability and improvement of future climate projections.

Keywords Common Era Internal variability Dark Ages Cold Period Medieval Climate Anomaly Current Warm Period

Corresponding Author(s): Feng SHI

About author:

Peng Lei and Charity Ngina Mwangi contributed equally to this work.

Issue Date: 31 October 2023

Cite this article:

Feng SHI,Mingfang TING,Zhengtang GUO. Quantitative attribution of Northern Hemisphere temperatures over the past 2000 years[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2023, 17(2): 632-641.

URL:

https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/10.1007/s11707-023-1086-6
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/Y2023/V17/I2/632

Fig.1 Comparison of proxy-based NH summer (June–August) mean temperature anomalies (°C, OIE reconstruction) with previous reconstructions based on tree-ring (Shi15, Shi et al., 2015; and Büntgen21, Büntgen et al., 2021) and multi-proxy (Moberg05, Moberg et al., 2005; and Christiansen12, Christiansen and Ljungqvist, 2012) records. In (a), the gray line represents the median value of OIE ensemble reconstruction; the black line is a 100-yr filtered version with a cut-off frequency of [1/100]; red and blue lines represent cold and warm periods, respectively, based on a 0.5 SD threshold. In (b), the lines of varying colors represent the multidecadal version with cut-off frequency range of [1/100, 1/30]. (c) Linear trends during the pre-industrial period of 1–1850 CE. Anomalies were computed relative to the base period of 1961–1990 CE. The 6th-order bandpass Butterworth filter was used.

Fig.2 Comparison of proxy-based NH summer mean temperature anomalies (°C, OIE reconstruction) (a) with previous reconstructions: Moberg05 (Moberg et al., 2005) (b); Christiansen12 (Christiansen and Ljungqvist, 2012) (c); Shi15 (Shi et al., 2015) (d); and Büntgen21 (Büntgen et al., 2021) (e). (f) Uncertainty ranges of the time spans for the three warm and two cold periods represented by red and blue shading, respectively.

Fig.3 Comparison of proxy-based NH summer mean temperature anomalies (°C) with external forcings for 100-yr filtered versions of LOVECLIM-LCE (black) and CESM-LME (red) simulations (gray shading represents the range of 5th to 95th percentiles of ensemble members; anomalies were computed relative to the base period of 1961–1990 CE) (a); NH volcanic eruption forcing (W·m⁻²; Toohey and Sigl, 2016) (b); solar activity forcing (W·m⁻²; Vieira et al., 2011) (c); and CO₂ forcing (ppm; Meinshausen et al., 2017) (d). All series were smoothed by a 100-yr 6th-order bandpass Butterworth filter; r² values refer to correlation between simulated temperatures and external forcing; N_eff denotes effective degrees of freedom.

Fig.4 Comparison of NH summer mean temperature anomalies (black line; °C) (a) with three forced-response estimates (°C) over a multidecadal-scale for the ensemble mean scenario of the LOVECLIM-LCE simulations (b), the EBM simulation (c), and the linear combination of the ensemble mean scenario of LOVECLIM-LCE simulations with external forcings (d). Gray shading represents the range of 5th to 95th percentiles of ensemble members. The r² values refer to correlation between the proxy reconstruction and the three estimates; N_eff denotes effective degrees of freedom. All series were smoothed by a 30-yr 6th-order bandpass Butterworth filter.

Fig.5 Comparison of NH summer mean temperature anomalies (black line; °C) (a) with three forced-response estimates (°C) over a centennial-scale for the ensemble mean scenario of the LOVECLIM-LCE simulations (b); the EBM simulation (c); and the linear combination of the ensemble mean scenario of the LOVECLIM-LCE simulations with the external forcings (d). See Fig. 4 for other details.

Fig.6 Comparison of centennial components of internal variability (blue line; °C), forced responses (red line; °C), and OIE reconstruction (shading; °C) of NH temperature anomalies over the last two millennia, showcased in three forced-response estimates (°C) for the ensemble mean of LOVECLIM-LCE simulations (a), the EBM simulation (b), and the linear combination of the ensemble mean scenario of the LOVECLIM-LCE simulations and external forcings (c). Anomalies were computed relative to the base period of 1961–1990 CE. The three warm and two cold periods are indicated by red and blue shading, respectively.

Fig.7 Contributions (explained variance) of unforced and forced variability of NH temperature anomalies over the last two millennia to NH warm/cold periods, based on the linear-combination estimate.

Fig.8 Comparison of unforced variability of NH temperature anomalies over the last millennium (black line; °C) with the oceanic circulations for the AMOC index (red line; Sun et al., 2015) (a) and the AMO index (red line, °C; Wang et al., 2017) (b). All series were smoothed by a 30-year 6th-order bandpass Butterworth filter; r² values refer to correlation between temperature reconstruction and the two circulation indices; N_eff denotes effective degrees of freedom.

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