Conceptual study on incorporating user information into forecasting systems

doi:10.1007/s11783-010-0246-6

Front Envir Sci Eng Chin

2011, Vol. 5

Issue (4) : 533-542 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11783-010-0246-6

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Conceptual study on incorporating user information into forecasting systems

Jiarui HAN^1,2, Qian YE³(

), Zhongwei YAN¹, Meiyan JIAO⁴, Jiangjiang XIA^1,2

1. Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; 2. Graduate School, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 3. Consortium for Capacity Building, University of Colorado, Colorado 80309, USA; 4. China Meteorology Administration, Beijing 100081, China

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Abstract

The purpose of improving weather forecast is to enhance the accuracy in weather prediction. An ideal forecasting system would incorporate user-end information. In recent years, the meteorological community has begun to realize that while general improvements to the physical characteristics of weather forecasting systems are becoming asymptotically limited, the improvement from the user end still has potential. The weather forecasting system should include user interaction because user needs may change with different weather. A study was conducted on the conceptual forecasting system that included a dynamic, user-oriented interactive component. This research took advantage of the recently implemented TIGGE (THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble) project in China, a case study that was conducted to test the new forecasting system with reservoir managers in Linyi City, Shandong Province, a region rich in rivers and reservoirs in eastern China. A self-improving forecast system was developed involving user feedback throughout a flood season, changing thresholds for flood-inducing rainfall that were responsive to previous weather and hydrological conditions, and dynamic user-oriented assessments of the skill and uncertainty inherent in weather prediction. This paper discusses ideas for developing interactive, user-oriented forecast systems.

Keywords user-end information user-oriented interactive forecasting system TIGGE (THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble)

Corresponding Author(s): YE Qian,Email:qianye@yahoo.com

Issue Date: 05 December 2011

Cite this article:

Jiarui HAN,Qian YE,Zhongwei YAN, et al. Conceptual study on incorporating user information into forecasting systems[J]. Front Envir Sci Eng Chin, 2011, 5(4): 533-542.

URL:

https://academic.hep.com.cn/fese/EN/10.1007/s11783-010-0246-6
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fese/EN/Y2011/V5/I4/533

Fig.1 Schematic showing (a) current and (b) future data flow in the forecast process (reproduced from Ref. [])

Fig.2 Topography in Linyi region

Fig.3 Relationship between reservoir operating water level and FIRT (flood safe water lever (FS); flood permissible maximum water level (FPM); flood warning maximum water level (FWM); flood-inducing rainfall threshold (FIRT))

Tab.1 Key information of ensemble forecasting models we used

Fig.4 Threats scores of TIGGE GE forecast, based on the 1-d- to 10-d-forecast results during Jul. and Aug. 2008, at 7 different scales

Fig.5 Probability comparison between the TIGGE models’ forecast and observed precipitation in Linyi region during Jul. and Aug. 2008

Fig.6 Threats scores of TIGGE 95 percentile GE forecasts during Jul. 2008

Fig.7 Q-Q plots of stream flow against meteorological-gauge rainfall (a) and hydrological-gauge rainfall (b) in Linyi region in flood season from 2001 to 2008. The latter plot fits the stream flow data slightly better than the former. Combined with Fig. 6, the data suggest that the high skillfulness scores of TIGGE forecasts verification outcomes were susceptible against rainfall data from meteorological- gauge on the threshold exceeding 50mm·d, at least for RMs in Linyi region

Fig.8 Schematic showing conceptual frameworks UIFS

Fig.9 Schematic showing RM-oriented interactive flood-inducing rainfall forecasting system

Fig.10 Schematic output of RM-oriented interactive flood-inducing rainfall forecasting system

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