Uncovering the evolution of tin use in the United States and its implications

doi:10.1007/s11783-021-1406-6

Front. Environ. Sci. Eng.

2021, Vol. 15

Issue (6) : 118 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11783-021-1406-6

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Uncovering the evolution of tin use in the United States and its implications

Congren Yang^1,³, Xianlai Zeng², Haodong Li¹, Zuyuan Tian¹, Wei Liu^1,³, Wenqing Qin^1,³(

), Jinhui Li²(

)

¹. School of Minerals Processing and Bioengineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China
². State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
³. Key Laboratory of Hunan Province for Clean and Efficient Utilization of Strategic Calcium-containing Mineral Resources, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China

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Abstract

• US tin use decreases as the GDP value added by manufacturing sector increases.

• Global and China’s tin use increases as the GDP added by manufacturing increases.

• A sigmoid curve can fit the US tin use data well.

• US tin use patterns is not due to the finite tin reserves or resources.

• Policies, substitutions, etc. play key roles in the changing tin use patterns.

Tin is of key importance to daily life and national security; it is considered an essential industrial metal. The United States (US) is the world’s largest economy and consumer of natural resources. Therefore, the analysis of historical tin use in the US is helpful for understanding future tin use trends in the world as a whole and in developing countries. Time series analysis, regression analysis with GDP or GDP/capita, and historical data fitted with logistic and Gompertz models are employed in this study. Historical tin use in the US shows three stages—increase-constant-decrease, as GDP per capita has increased. Tin use in the US is negatively correlated with the GDP value added by the manufacturing sector, while the use of tin worldwide and in China continues to increase along with the GDP value added by the manufacturing sector. Although a sigmoid curve can fit the US tin use data well, that use is not directly related to the limited tin reserves or resources. Rather, policies, economic restructuring, substitutions, new end-use markets, etc. have played key roles in the changing tin use patterns. This work contributes to understanding future tin use at both the global and national levels: tin use will continue to increase with GDP at the global level, but use patterns of tin at the national level can be changed through human intervention.

Keywords Tin use GDP Curve fitting Logistic model Gompertz model

Corresponding Author(s): Wenqing Qin,Jinhui Li

Issue Date: 24 March 2021

Cite this article:

Congren Yang,Xianlai Zeng,Haodong Li, et al. Uncovering the evolution of tin use in the United States and its implications[J]. Front. Environ. Sci. Eng., 2021, 15(6): 118.

URL:

https://academic.hep.com.cn/fese/EN/10.1007/s11783-021-1406-6
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fese/EN/Y2021/V15/I6/118

Fig.1 Annual tin use (A), correlation between annual tin use and per capita GDP (B), cumulative tin use (C), per capita tin use (D), and tin production, refined tin imports and exports, and tin use (E), in the US, 1900?2015. The data of US tin use is from US Geological Survey (USGS, 2017), GDP/capita data for US is from Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA, 2018) and World Bank (WB, 2020) (Current US$).

Fig.2 Logistic and Gompertz models fitted to US tin use (A and B). The correlation between the historical tin use data and those estimated by the models (C and D). Data source: US Geological Survey (USGS, 2017).

Fig.3 Evolution of US tin use by end-use sector from 1950 to 2015. Data source: US Geological Survey (USGS, 2017).

Fig.4 Correlation between annual tin use (USGS, 2017) and GDP added by the manufacturing sector (Current US$) (BEA, 2018) (A), output of US automobile (Hughes and Cain, 2010) (B), market share of imported automobiles in the US (Hughes and Cain, 2010) (C), and value added by manufacturing as a percentage of GDP (BEA, 2018) (D).

Fig.5 Imports and exports of A-portable computers (HTS 847130), B-air conditioners (HTS 841510), C-mobile phones (HTS 851712), D-televisions (HTS 852872), E-washing machines (HTS 8450), and F-refrigerators (HTS 841824). HTS-Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (2018, Revision 10). Data source: ITC Trade Map (ITC Trade Map).

Fig.6 Correlation between annual tin use and GDP added by the manufacturing sector or industry (constant 2010 US$): A-worldwide, B-China. Tin use data for the world and for China is from China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA, 2018). The data of worldwide GDP added by the manufacturing sector and China GDP added by the industry is from World Bank (WB, 2020).

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