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Frontiers in Energy

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Front. Energy    2019, Vol. 13 Issue (3) : 551-570    https://doi.org/10.1007/s11708-019-0641-z
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Will Germany move into a situation with unsecured power supply?
Harald SCHWARZ()
Energy Distribution and High Voltage Engineering, Faculty 3, Brandenburg University of Technology, Cottbus-Senftenberg 03013, Germany
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Abstract

Together with a huge number of other countries, Germany signed the Paris Agreements in 2015 to prevent global temperature increase above 2°C. Within this agreement, all countries defined their own national contributions to CO2 reduction. Since that, it was visible that CO2 emissions in Germany decreased, but not so fast than proposed in this German nationally determined contribution to the Paris Agreement. Due to increasing traffic, CO2 emissions from this mobility sector increased and CO2 emission from German power generation is nearly constant for the past 20 years, even a renewable generation capacity of 112 GW was built up in 2017, which is much higher than the peak load of 84 GW in Germany. That is why the German National Government has implemented a commission (often called “The German Coal Commission”) to propose a time line: how Germany can move out of coal-fired power stations. This “Coal Commission” started its work in the late spring of 2018 and handed over its final report with 336 pages to the government on January 26th, 2019. Within this report the following proposals were made: ① Until 2022: Due to a former decision of the German Government, the actual remaining nuclear power generation capacity of about 10 GW has to be switched off in 2022. Besides, the “Coal Commission” proposed to switch off additionally in total 12.5 GW of both, hard coal and lignite-fired power plants, so that Germany should reduce its conventional generation capacity by 22.5 GW in 2022. ② Until 2030: Another 13 GW of German hard coal or lignite-fired power plants should be switched off. ③ Until 2038: The final 17 GW of German hard coal or lignite-fired power plants should be switched off until 2038 latest. Unfortunately the “Coal Commission” has not investigated the relevant technical parameter to ensure a secured electric power supply, based on German’s own national resources. Because German Energy Revolution mainly is based on wind energy and photovoltaic, this paper will describe the negligible contribution of these sources to the secured generation capacity, which will be needed for a reliable power supply. In addition, it will discuss several technical options to integrate wind energy and photovoltaic into a secured power supply system with an overall reduced CO2 emission.
Keywords CO2 reduction      mobility sector      renewable generation      coal commission      secured power generation capacity      reliable power supply      power-to-gas      power-to-heat     
Corresponding Author(s): Harald SCHWARZ   
Online First Date: 05 August 2019    Issue Date: 04 September 2019
 Cite this article:   
Harald SCHWARZ. Will Germany move into a situation with unsecured power supply?[J]. Front. Energy, 2019, 13(3): 551-570.
 URL:  
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fie/EN/10.1007/s11708-019-0641-z
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fie/EN/Y2019/V13/I3/551
Amount of gross power production/TWh Share of gross power production/%
Nuclear 76 11.7
Lignite 148 22.8
Hard coal 93 14.1
Natural gas 86 13.2
Mineral oil 6 0.8
Others 28 4.1
Renewables 218 33.3
Overall 655 100.0
Tab.1  Share of gross power production in Germany in 2017
Renewable power production/TWh Share of renewable power production/%
Wind energy 106 16.3
Photovoltaic 40 6.1
Biomass 46 6.9
Hydro 20 3.1
Waste 6 0.9
Overall 218 33.3
Tab.2  Share of renewable energies related to gross power generation in Germany in 2017
Fig.1  Increase of renewable energies in Germany up to 218 TWh in 2017 (adapted from Ref. [2]).
Fig.2  Gross power production in Germany including share of renewable generation (adapted from Ref. [3]).
Amount of netpower production/TWh Share of netpower production/%
Nuclear 72.1–72.0 13.2–13.3
Lignite 134.0–131.2 24.2–24.3
Hard coal 83.3–75.7 15.7–14.0
Natural gas 46.6–40.0 8.4–7.4
Renewables 210–217.3 38.5–40.2
Overall 546–540 100
Tab.3  Share of German net power generation in 2017 resp. 2018
Amount of renewable power production/TWh Share of renewable power production/%
Wind energy 103.6–109.8 18.8–20.2
Photovoltaic 38.4–45.8 7.0–8.5
Biomass 47.7–44.7 8.7–8.3
Hydro 20.4–17.0 4.0–3.2
Overall 210–217.3 38.5–40.2
Tab.4  Share of renewable generation based on German net power generation in 2017 resp. 2018
Fig.3  Installed electric power generation capacity and power demand in Germany from 2002 to 2017 and planning scenarios for 2030 .
Secured power generation capacity of conventional power station [7] Secured power generation capacity of renewable power generation [8]
Types Percentage/% Types Percentage/%
Nuclear power stations 93 Running water power stations 25
Lignite power stations 92 Biomass power stations 65
Hard coal power station 86 Wind generation off-shore 2
Natural gas (gas and steam units) 86 Wind generation on-shore 1
Natural oil 86 Photovoltaic 0
Fast starting gas turbines 42
Tab.5  Factor of secured power generation capacity for different types of generation in Germany
Fig.4  Secured electric power generation capacity and power demand in Germany from 2002 to 2017.
Fig.5  Secured power generation capacity in Germany up to 2017 including proposals from German “Coal Commission” up to 2038.
Fig.6  Peak load in 2007 with 78.5 GW and the daily demand maxima on each of the working days in winter 2007/2008 (adapted from Ref. [7]).
Fig.7  Contribution of different generation units to the German energy mix in week 06/2018 (adapted from Ref. [9]).
Fig.8  Contribution of different generation units to the German energy mix in week 50/2018 (adapted from Ref. [9]).
CO2 emissions caused by combustion process
/(kg·MWh–1)		 CO2 emissions caused by exploitation and transport to Germany/(kg·MWh–1) Total CO2 emission from the global point of view/(kg·MWh–1)
Lignite 930 35 965
Hard coal (German Mix) 735 235 970
Natural gas with pipeline transport from Norway 335 365 700
Natural Gas with pipeline transport from Russia 335 445 780
US-shale gas with LNG transport 335 745 1080
Natural gas with LNG transport from Algeria 335 475 810
Natural gas with LNG transport from Katar 335 485 820
Tab.6  Global CO2 emissions of natural gas use in German power stations
Fig.9  Share of renewables within E.DIS grid exceeding 100% (red bars) while German average being around 33% (black bars) (revised from Ref. [22]).
Fig.10  Installed renewable generation capacity within E.DIS grid exceeding grid peak load (upper red line) by factor 4 and base load (lower red line) by factor 17 (revised from Ref. [22]).
Fig.11  Feedback from 110 kV distribution grid of MitNETZ Ltd. toward the 400 kV transmission system in Dec. 2017 (blue line below the gray area) (revised from Ref. [22]).
Fig.12  Feedback from 110 kV distribution grid of MitNETZ Ltd. toward the 400 kV transmission system in Apr. 2018 (blue line below the gray area) (revised from Ref. [22]).
Fig.13  Average of power flow (green curve in MW) and energy (blue curve in MWh) between 400 kV and 110 kV grid at substation GRAUSTEIN in 2017.
Fig.14  Average of power flow (green curve in MW) and energy (blue curve in MWh) between 400 kV and 110 kV grid at substation RAGOW in 2017.
Fig.15  Averaging of power flow between 400 kV and 110 kV grid at substation GRAUSTEIN in Jan. 2017 (real power flow in blue, rms–value of power flow in orange).
Fig.16  Overall estimation of network engagements within all German transmission and distribution grids.
Fig.17  Network engagements per year according to EnWG §13 (part 1= pink) and (part 2= red) within 50 Hz-transmission Ltd.
Fig.18  Overproduction of electricity in Germany at the nights of Jan. 3rd, 4th, and 5th, 2018 (red line indicates the actual power demand) (adapted from Ref. [16]).
Fig.19  Similar picture to Fig. 18, now including the electricity prices (yellow curve) (adapted from Ref. [16]).
Fig.20  Infeed from wind energy in 2017 in Germany with its installed capacity of 56 GW (red line) (revised from Ref. [17]).
Fig.21  Infeed from wind energy in 2017 in Germany and all its neighboring countries with an installed capacity of 93 GW (red line) (revised from Ref. 17]).
Border between Germany and Power demand in the related country, when Germany is on 100% of its annual power demand / % Transport capacity of cross border going high voltage lines/ GW
Poland 96 1.6
Czech Republic 91 2.8
Austria 92 6.0
Switzerland 90 4.0
France 84 4.7
Belgium 93 -
Netherlands 100 1.7
Denmark 96 2.2
Sweden 83 0.6
Tab.7  Percentage of national peak load in Germany’s neighboring countries at the day of peak load in Germany
Fig.22  Frequency curve at 9 p.m. on Jan. 10th, 2019 (revised from Ref. [19]).
Fig.23  Frequency curve at 6 a.m. on Jan. 24th, 2019 (revised from Ref. [19]).
Fig.24  Composition of average electricity price for a German households using 3500 kWh per year (adapted from Ref. [20]).
Fig.25  Electricity prices for households in all European countries (adapted from Ref. [20]).
Fig.26  Development of CO2 emissions from power industry in Germany (based on data from [21]).
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