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Frontiers of Engineering Management

ISSN 2095-7513

ISSN 2096-0255(Online)

CN 10-1205/N

Postal Subscription Code 80-905

Front. Eng    2021, Vol. 8 Issue (2) : 212-222    https://doi.org/10.1007/s42524-020-0146-9
REVIEW ARTICLE
Literature review on renewable energy development and China’s roadmap
Dequn ZHOU1(), Hao DING1(), Qunwei WANG1, Bin SU2
1. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China; Research Center for Soft Energy Science, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China
2. Energy Studies Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore 119077, Singapore
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Abstract

The low carbon energy transition has attracted worldwide attention to mitigate climate change. Renewable energy (RE) is the key to this transition, with significant developments to date, especially in China. This study systematically reviews the literature on RE development to identify a general context from many studies. The goal is to clarify key questions related to RE development from the current academic community. We first identify the forces driving RE development. Thereafter, we analyze methods for modeling RE developments considering the systematic and multiple complexity characteristics of RE. The study concludes with insights into the target selection and RE development roadmap in China.

Keywords renewable energy      energy transition      technology innovation      technology diffusion      development preference      energy system modeling     
Corresponding Author(s): Dequn ZHOU,Hao DING   
Just Accepted Date: 30 October 2020   Online First Date: 26 November 2020    Issue Date: 25 March 2021
 Cite this article:   
Dequn ZHOU,Hao DING,Qunwei WANG, et al. Literature review on renewable energy development and China’s roadmap[J]. Front. Eng, 2021, 8(2): 212-222.
 URL:  
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fem/EN/10.1007/s42524-020-0146-9
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fem/EN/Y2021/V8/I2/212
Fig.1  Driving forces of RE development.
Main issues Methodologies and models References
Technological change Exogenous models
(Hicks-neutral productivity gain and autonomous energy-efficiency improvement parameter)
Jorgenson and Wilcoxen, 1993; Nordhaus, 1994; Böhringer, 1998; Pizer, 1999
Endogenous models
(learning curve and Cobb–Douglas function)
Kouvaritakis et al., 2000; Jakeman et al., 2004; Gillingham et al., 2008; Noailly and Smeets, 2015; Ding et al., 2020b
Social survey Peter et al., 2002; Reddy and Painuly, 2004; Axsen et al., 2015; Murakami et al., 2015
Technological diffusion Bass diffusion model Purohit and Kandpal, 2005; Usha Rao and Kishore, 2009; Radomes Jr and Arango, 2015
Logistic model Collantes, 2007
Epidemic diffusion model Lund, 2006
Rogers model Peter et al., 2002
Subjective decision and behavior Social survey and empirical analysis Masini and Menichetti, 2012; Bauner and Crago, 2015; Langbroek et al., 2016
Agent-based modeling Zhou et al., 2011; Snape et al., 2015; Bhagwat et al., 2016; Anatolitis and Welisch, 2017
Optimization Zhu and Fan, 2011; Boomsma et al., 2012; Zhang et al., 2016; Li et al., 2019; Ding et al., 2020a
Tab.1  Methodologies and models applied in RE development studies
Fig.2  Cumulative installation capacities of wind turbines and PV in China (Source: China Electricity Council).
Fig.3  Adjustments in the development goal for PV by 2020 (Source: National RE plans and related news).
Goals and real achievements Wind turbine (MW) PV (MW) Biomass power (MW)
10th Five-Year Plan
Goal 1200 53
Real achievement 1260 70
11th Five-Year Plan
Goal 10000 300 5500
Real achievement 31000 800 5500
12th Five-Year Plan
Goal 100000 21000 13000
Real achievement 129000 43180 10300
13th Five-Year Plan
Goal (by 2020) 210000 105000 15000
Real achievement (by 2019) 210000 204000 22540
Tab.2  Examples of China’s RE developmental goals and real achievements
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