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Frontiers of Mechanical Engineering

ISSN 2095-0233

ISSN 2095-0241(Online)

CN 11-5984/TH

Postal Subscription Code 80-975

2018 Impact Factor: 0.989

Front Mech Eng Chin    2009, Vol. 4 Issue (1) : 15-24    https://doi.org/10.1007/s11465-009-0015-z
RESEARCH ARTICLE
General expression for linear and nonlinear time series models
Ren HUANG(), Feiyun XU, Ruwen CHEN
School of Mechanical Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China
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Abstract

The typical time series models such as ARMA, AR, and MA are founded on the normality and stationarity of a system and expressed by a linear difference equation; therefore, they are strictly limited to the linear system. However, some nonlinear factors are within the practical system; thus, it is difficult to fit the model for real systems with the above models. This paper proposes a general expression for linear and nonlinear auto-regressive time series models (GNAR). With the gradient optimization method and modified AIC information criteria integrated with the prediction error, the parameter estimation and order determination are achieved. The model simulation and experiments show that the GNAR model can accurately approximate to the dynamic characteristics of the most nonlinear models applied in academics and engineering. The modeling and prediction accuracy of the GNAR model is superior to the classical time series models. The proposed GNAR model is flexible and effective.

Keywords linear and nonlinear      autoregressive model      system identification      time series analysis     
Corresponding Author(s): HUANG Ren,Email:rhuangcn@yahoo.com.cn   
Issue Date: 05 March 2009
 Cite this article:   
Ren HUANG,Feiyun XU,Ruwen CHEN. General expression for linear and nonlinear time series models[J]. Front Mech Eng Chin, 2009, 4(1): 15-24.
 URL:  
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fme/EN/10.1007/s11465-009-0015-z
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fme/EN/Y2009/V4/I1/15
Fig.1  Comparison of model GNAR (3;5,1,1) and ARMA(2,1)
Fig.2  Comparison of BL model and its corresponding GNAR (4; 11, 3, 3, 3) model
Fig.3  Comparison of EXPAR model and its corresponding GNAR (4; 7, 3, 3, 3) model
Fig.4  Comparison of TAR model and its corresponding GNAR (3; 5, 2, 2) model
Fig.5  Relations of relative modeling and prediction errors with model order and memory step-length GNAR (3; , 2, 1) =2, 3,…, 15
yearobservation valueprediction valueabsolute error
TAR1TAR2GNAR(3;3,2,2)TAR1TAR2GNAR(3;3,2,2)
1980154.6160.1152.4156.25.52.21.6
1981140.5141.8126.0137.21.314.53.3
1982115.996.491.9111.919.524.04.0
198366.661.866.380.44.80.313.8
198445.931.136.941.414.89.04.5
198517.918.133.026.00.215.18.1
198613.418.916.75.53.3
198729.229.915.10.714.1
mean value6.510.96.6
Tab.1  Comparison of sunspot predictions
yearobservation valueprediction valueabsolute error
LAR(12)MoranTARBLGNARLAR(12)MoranTARBLGNAR
19212.35982.45502.45042.31092.44202.22330.09520.09060.04890.08220.1366
19222.60102.80702.80992.87702.75602.85680.20600.20890.27600.15500.2559
19233.05382.89902.89742.91062.89703.03570.15480.15640.14320.15680.0181
19243.38603.23103.34953.37033.13503.37160.15500.03650.01570.25100.0143
19253.55323.38803.46763.58753.41103.53890.16520.08560.03430.14220.0142
19263.46763.33203.44653.42613.51203.50590.13560.02110.04150.04440.0383
19273.18673.00702.19663.09362.92203.09470.17970.99010.09310.26470.0920
19282.72352.68802.86662.77062.70602.77590.03550.14310.04710.01750.0524
19292.68572.42802.43072.42172.58302.41220.25770.25500.26400.10270.2736
19302.82092.76502.73572.76442.84402.72820.05590.08520.05650.02310.0927
19313.00002.98402.95542.93972.96602.93430.01600.04460.06030.03400.0657
19323.20143.21703.10363.24623.15903.24180.01560.09780.04480.04240.0405
19333.42443.36503.24903.37013.29903.35350.05940.17540.05430.12540.0709
19343.53103.50303.40773.44683.41503.46370.02800.12330.08420.11600.0672
mean value0.11140.17950.09030.11120.0880
Tab.2  Comparison of Canadian lynx prediction
Fig.6  Example for self-exciting process
Fig.7  Another example for self-exciting process
Fig.8  Boundary distortion correction for gauge by GNAR model. (a) Working boundary edge ; (b) working boundary edge
nominal dimension40.36046.500
No.image dimension/pixelmeasuring dimension/mmmeasuring error/mmimage dimension/pixelmeasuring dimension/mmmeasuring error/mm
1607.6240.354-0.006700.4946.495-0.005
2607.6540.356-0.004700.4446.492-0.008
3607.6340.354-0.006700.5546.499-0.001
4607.7440.3620.002700.5846.5010.001
5607.7740.3640.004700.5946.5020.002
6607.7640.3630.003700.5946.5010.001
7607.7340.3610.001700.5846.5010.001
8607.7640.3630.003700.5746.5000.000
9607.7640.3630.003700.6746.5070.007
10607.6840.358-0.002700.5746.5010.001
Tab.3  Experiment data for block gauges
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