China Economic Transition

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Blockchain, Enterprise Digitalization, and Supply Chain Finance Innovation
GONG Qiang, BAN Mingyuan, ZHANG Yilin
China Economic Transition    2022, 5 (2): 131-158.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-014-022-0008-3
Abstract   PDF (1404KB)

Digital supply chain finance is an innovative product created through the integration of the blockchain technology and traditional supply chain finance. This paper constructs the theoretical framework of mortgage financing from banks by enterprises in the supply chain network, and systematically analyzes the economic rationale governing the digital supply chain finance, along with its pros and cons compared with traditional supply chain finance. The findings show, when there are enough enterprises on the supply chain and sufficient qualified information about these enterprises, the consensus mechanism of the supply chain can reveal close-to-truth enterprise information and prevent information manipulation, malicious fraud, and other moral hazards so that banks can provide accessible and affordable financing services for enterprises on the chain with risks effectively controlled. Otherwise, if there are not enough enterprises on the chain and the credibility of their information cannot be guaranteed, banks will prefer traditional offline methods such as due diligence for risk control. This paper theoretically reveals that, along with the broad application of the blockchain technology in the supply chain and the resulting digitalization of enterprises, digital supply chain finance based on blockchain technology will become a more efficient and inclusive means of financial support.

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Fintech, Bank Risks, and Business Performance: From the Perspective of Inclusive Finance
GUO Lihong, ZHU Keda
China Economic Transition    2022, 5 (2): 242-261.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-014-022-0012-8
Abstract   PDF (550KB)

Recent years have seen an increasing integration of fintech and inclusive loans, leading to significant changes in banking business models and operations. The paper analyzes the impact of fintech on bank risks and performance. The research findings show the following results. First, fintech has made banks more willing to issue inclusive loans. Second, by leveraging fintech, banks have lowered the risks associated with inclusive loans and improved their performance, particularly manifested by inclusive loans to small and micro enterprises. Third, in regard to financial geographic heterogeneity, with the increasing distance between branches and sub-branches, and head office, fintech, as an effective regulating tool, can help to improve the inclusive loan operations and risk control capabilities of remote branches and sub-branches. This paper argues that digital financial inclusion contributes to the stable operation of banks; banks can take advantage of fintech to digitalize and intelligentize financial inclusion, thereby improving business efficiency, reducing risk exposures and expanding profitability. Therefore, banks should adhere to the “prudent and stable” risk appetite and “small and decentralized” credit granting principle to make safe, convenient and impartial inclusive finance services available to a variety of market entities. When implementing the inclusive finance development strategy, head office should consider different results among branches and sub-branches due to their varied financial geographic locations, and release differentiated assessment and incentive policies to branches and sub-branches based on economic regions in a bid to minimize policy spillovers.

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AI, SME Financing, and Bank Digitalization
ZHANG Yilin, YU Yunjun, CHEN Zhuming
China Economic Transition    2022, 5 (2): 210-241.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-014-022-0011-1
Abstract   PDF (1469KB)

With the development of digital technology, the way that banks serve small-and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) has undergone a disruptive change. Besides labor-intensive ways, banks can now serve SMEs through technology-intensive ways such as big data and artificial intelligence (AI). This has given rise to internet banks and made traditional banks face the choice of digitalization, thus igniting the technological competition in the banking sector. This paper builds a competition model among three types of banks, including small and medium internet banks with unique data advantages, large banks with economies of scale, and regional small and medium banks with comparative advantages in acquiring internal information. Then, the paper studies the digitalization strategies of different types of banks and their influence on the financing options of SMEs. The model shows that there may be a digital matching relationship between banks and SMEs in the era of AI. Large banks and small and medium internet banks have the advantage in the research and development and application of digital loan technology and serve SMEs with a more digital footprint. Regional small and medium banks have an advantage in traditional loan means and serve SMEs with a less digital footprint. This paper suggests that banks choose the transformation direction and development orientation according to their own conditions, such as bank scale, data accumulation, and internal information screening capability because this affects not only the development of banks and but also the extent to which AI can improve the financing environment for SMEs. These conclusions not only provide a theoretical basis for the decision-making mechanism of bank digitalization strategy and the applicability of AI to different types of banks but also have important policy implications for the government to better promote the digital transformation of banks and alleviate the financing constraints for SMEs.

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The CPC’s Century-Old Ecological Civilization and Its View on People
HUANG Chengliang, YANG Kaizhong, GAO Shiji
China Economic Transition    2022, 5 (4): 429-460.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-014-022-0020-1
Abstract   PDF (619KB)

The Communist Party of China (CPC) has in the people its roots, its lifeblood, and its source of strength. Ecological civilization is an integral part of the Five-Sphere Integrated Plan and the Five-Sphere Advancement of Socialism. Ecological civilization is a new form of human civilization written into Constitution of the People’s Republic of China and protected by the fundamental law, with the pursuit of the harmonious coexistence of human and nature as its core, and with its underlying value orientation adhering to a people-oriented development. Learning from the CPC’s century-old ecological civilization, including its germination, exploration, development, perfection, and maturity, especially in the new era, for the first time in the CPC’s century-old history, Xi Jinping Thought on Ecological Civilization is established, which specifically guides the theory and practice of ecological civilization. It is not only the inheritance and development of Marxist thoughts on the relationship between human and nature, but also fundamentally manifests its value of the supremacy of the people. The establishment of the people’s supremacy in the pursuit of ecological civilization under the leadership of the CPC differs from Western anthropocentrism or ecocentrism. It develops keen insights into important documents of people’s supremacy in the history of the CPC’s ecological civilization for the 20th century, which is of great theoretical and practical value to understand the spiritual genealogy of the CPC more completely, accurately, and systematically, to clarify the underlying value orientation of ecological civilization, to better learn and practice Xi Jinping Thought on Ecological Civilization in the new era, and to build a modernized society of harmonious coexistence between human and nature.

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Impact of the Construction of Ecological Civilization Demonstration Areas on Carbon Emission Intensity
WANG Keliang, XU Ruyu, ZHANG Fuqin, MIAO Zhuang
China Economic Transition    2022, 5 (4): 486-519.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-014-022-0023-2
Abstract   PDF (2814KB)

The development path from attaching importance to environmental protection to the theory of ecological conservation, then to piloting ecological civilization demonstration areas, marks that China’s ecological conservation has gradually moved from theoretical construction to practical exploration, based on the new idea that “lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets.” It is still an ordeal for China’s ecological conservation in the context of global warming how to reduce carbon emission intensity while maintaining sustained economic growth. Under the dual constraints of peaking carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060 (“dual carbon” goals), this paper employs the five national ecological civilization pilot demonstration areas (ECDAs) established in 2014 as quasi-natural experiments based on the panel data of 30 Chinese provincial regions from 2003 to 2019. Based on the analysis of the policy implementation background and the theoretical mechanism of its impact on carbon emission intensity, the synthetic control method and difference in differences method are adopted to test the impact of the construction of ECDAs on carbon emission intensity and examine the spatial spillover effect of the pilot policies. The study shows that the construction of ECDAs has significantly reduced carbon emission intensity as a whole, especially in Fujian, Guizhou, and Yunnan Provinces. Moreover, the conclusions successfully pass the robustness test. The mechanism analysis results demonstrate that the construction of ECDAs can lower carbon emission intensity through the positive incentives from boosting technological progress and developing green finance, and the reversal pressure mechanism of optimizing the energy structure and improving the market segmentation. The analysis results of the spatial spillover effect indicate that the construction of ECDAs plays a significant role in reducing carbon emission intensity in the region and its adjacent areas. Therefore, China should introduce ECDAs and the experience gained to more regions. Meanwhile, China should spare no effort to seek multi-dimensional paths to reduce carbon emissions in view of regional differences in green development, and strengthen cross-regional communications and cooperation to realize the goals of carbon emission reduction.

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Driving Green Transformation of Agriculture with Low-Carbon Measures: Characteristics and Reduction Measures of China’s Agricultural Carbon Emissions
JIN Shuqin, LIN Yu, NIU Kunyu
China Economic Transition    2022, 5 (4): 470-485.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-014-022-0022-5
Abstract   PDF (1268KB)

All mankind is faced with the severe challenge to deal with climate change. Advocating the concept of “a community with a shared future for mankind,” China has taken the initiative to commit itself to emission reduction and has actively contributed its strength. According to the data on agricultural carbon emissions, it finds that non-carbon dioxide gases dominated agricultural carbon emissions, showing an overall upward trend year by year. However, a downward trend has been seen, and it was near a peak in this regard in recent years. Emissions from energy consumption of agricultural machinery may become the most significant uncertain factor for the carbon dioxide peaking of agriculture, as agriculture in China is yet to be mechanized further. The analysis above has laid a foundation for the emission reduction idea of driving the green transformation of agriculture with low-carbon measures. Specific recommendations are as follows in this regard. Carbon constraint indicators should be added to the 14th Five-Year Plan for the development of agriculture and rural areas. The methodology accounting should be expedited for agricultural carbon emissions. China should make a lot of effort to develop the agricultural carbon market and strive to employ financial means to promote low-carbon agricultural technologies.

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Fintech, Digital Financial Inclusion, and National Financial Competitiveness
HU Bin, CHENG Xuejun
China Economic Transition    2022, 5 (2): 189-209.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-014-022-0010-4
Abstract   PDF (1159KB)

With the rapid development of fintech as represented by the internet, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cloud computing and big data, especially the evolution of big data and deep learning, and the major changes in financial service models and products in recent years, the development of global inclusive finance has undergone different stages, from “micro finance,” through “inclusive finance,” to “digital financial inclusion.” In the context of growing global competition in the financial sector, many countries are promoting digital financial inclusion and formulating applicable national development strategies. Therefore, it is suggested that China should further strengthen support policies, increase its influence on global financial governance, construct a long-term regulatory mechanism for digital financial inclusion, and build digital inclusive financial infrastructure in order to improve the international competitiveness of China’s financial industry.

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Systematic Methodology Requirements of Xi Jinping Thought on Ecological Civilization—Pursuing the Construction of an Ecological Civilization in All Dimensions, All Regions, and at All Times
ZHANG Yunfei, LI Na
China Economic Transition    2022, 5 (4): 520-539.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-014-022-0024-9
Abstract   PDF (1252KB)

Xi Jinping Thought on Ecological Civilization views mountains, rivers, forests, farmlands, lakes, grasslands, deserts, and glaciers as an inseparable ecosystem and communities of life which should be put under integrated protection and systematic management to ensure ecological civilization in all dimensions, all regions, and at all times. By “all dimensions,” it refers to the systematic management of all the elements of ecological civilization. By “all regions,” it means the systematic management of the entire spatial elements of ecological civilization. By “all times,” it calls for the systematic management of all the components of the temporal structure of ecological civilization. Together, it refers to ecological civilization through systems engineering. This is an innovative application and advancement of materialist dialectics’ systematic methodology in ecological civilization, and a significant contribution of Xi Jinping Thought on Ecological Civilization to materialist dialectics.

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Fintech, Digital Currency, and the Restructuring of the Global Financial System
GAO Hongmin, LI Gang
China Economic Transition    2022, 5 (2): 262-276.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-014-022-0013-5
Abstract   PDF (564KB)

Financial technology (fintech) and digital currency are irreversibly reshaping the global financial system. Through the analysis of the development of fintech and digital currency, and the resulting major influences on the global financial system, this paper discusses the impact of issuing legal digital currency on a monetary base and money multiplier, and the possible influences on central banks’ monetary policies. It shows that the integration of artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, the Internet of Things and other information technologies with traditional finance will greatly enhance the efficiency of financial service, and help to identify, quantify and minimize financial risks, and reinforce the financial agglomeration effect of traditional financial centers. At the same time, the development of digital currency entirely based on blockchain technology may weaken the financial agglomeration functions of traditional financial centers. The development of private digital currency based on blockchain is unstoppable, thus the legal digital currency of the People’s Bank of China will play an important role in restructuring the global currency framework. Taking advantage of the internet financial market, China should strengthen its infrastructure in fintech, promote integrated innovation, increase research spending on core technology, and tighten top-level design and regulation, so as to advance a faster development of fintech and digital currency.

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Agricultural Ecological Conservation in the Past 70 Years in China: Historical Review and Future Outlook
XING Zhongxian, ZHANG Ping
China Economic Transition    2022, 5 (4): 540-550.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-014-022-0025-6
Abstract   PDF (451KB)

Agricultural ecological conservation is an internal demand for the development of socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era, and a basic requirement for realizing rural revitalization and building a beautiful China. Over the past 70 years, agricultural ecological progress in China has gone through three stages: preliminary exploration, in-depth development, and quality improvement in the new era. It has gained valuable historical experience in terms of the premise of liberating and developing productive forces, the principle of coordinating economy and ecology, and the guarantee of systems and laws. Therefore, agricultural ecological conservation in the new era should adhere to the guidance of the Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, strengthen the awareness of agricultural ecological conservation, stick to the path of green ecological agriculture development, improve the evaluation system of agricultural ecological conservation, and deepen international cooperation in this field.

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Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality from the Perspective of Chinese Modernization
QI Shaozhou
China Economic Transition    2022, 5 (4): 461-469.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-014-022-0021-8
Abstract   PDF (589KB)

This paper tries to explain the economic significance of “pursuing green development and promoting harmony between humanity and nature” in the Report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) from the following eight aspects. First, it explains how to respect, adapt to, and protect nature through the confirmation of ownership, valuation classification and incentive. Second, it analyzes why China should work actively toward the goals of peaking carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality from the new security concept, new challenges, new situations, and new tasks brought by the urgency and severity of climate change risks. Third, it expounds on the difficulty and complexity of addressing climate change from multiple aspects, such as the ratchet effect, Giddens’s paradox, prisoner’s dilemma, lock-in effect, asset stranding, intergenerational equity, and the Wandering Earth scenario. Fourth, it recognizes the importance of stability, overall planning, and coordination based on the overall planned and coordinated triangle of high-quality development, carbon neutrality, and energy security. Fifth, it emphasizes the importance of green and low-carbon technological innovation by means of the IPAS equation. Sixth, it explains the essence of carbon neutrality as the industrial transition based on the energy transition, which is an economic logic. Seventh, taking the carbon market as an example, it explains the economic principle that the market mechanism plays an important role. Eighth, it explains how finance empowers the goals of peaking carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality as well as highquality development. Finally, this paper is of guiding significance for economics, finance, international trade, and policy research, and in the meantime, provides new research tasks.

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The Development Trend, Security Risk Prevention, and Top-Level System Design of Blockchain
CHEN Lei, ZHOU Yanqiu
China Economic Transition    2022, 5 (2): 159-188.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-014-022-0009-0
Abstract   PDF (575KB)

It will be an important task to improve the ability to use and manage the blockchain and facilitate the development of China’s cyber and digital economy in a safe and benign way during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021–2025). The synchronous “shock reduction” of the top-level system is needed to escort the safe and benign development of blockchain as the driving force and potential energy of blockchain development is released at a high speed. As an important prerequisite for exploring the design ideas of the top-level system of blockchain, it is necessary to grasp the international and domestic development opportunity of blockchain and identify its internal and external security risks. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China should establish the legislative concept of the organic integration of legal governance and technological governance, establish an effective market competition mechanism driven by the coupling of incentives and regulations, and realize the management synergy between government plans and enterprise strategies. For the sake of promoting the safe and benign development of blockchain, it is the fundamental policy to accelerate blockchain technology development by developing key technologies, advancing the industrial innovation process and strengthening the construction of talent pool. Meanwhile, it is the safeguarding policy to strengthen the top-level system design of blockchain through advancing legislation timely, improving market mechanisms and optimizing governance system.

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Digital Empowerment, Digital Input Source, and Green Transformation of Manufacturing Industry
DAI Xiang, YANG Shuangzhi
China Economic Transition    2023, 6 (1): 57-89.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-016-023-0003-9
Abstract   PDF (1061KB)

An important proposition needed in-depth research is how digital technology empowers the green transformation of the manufacturing industry. This paper empirically finds that digital empowerment can boost the green transformation of enterprises, the conclusion of which stands valid under all kinds of robustness tests. Moreover, such boosting is heterogeneous and exists in industries with different energy consumption intensities. In addition, digital empowerment has a positive spillover effect on the green transformation of upstream and downstream enterprises along industrial chains. From the specific mechanism of action, digital empowerment mainly drives the green transformation of manufacturing enterprises through scale and technology effects. The green transformation is significantly positively affected by digital empowerment. Compared with digital empowerment driven by domestic digital sources, the one built on foreign digital sources has a more profound influence on the green transformation of the manufacturing industry, although the green transformation is significantly positively affected by digital empowerment. The differences above may stem from the gap in the development of digital technology at home and abroad. This judgment has been further confirmed in the heterogeneity analysis on regions with different levels of economic development and factor-intensive manufacturing industries. This means that in the new round of technological competition, China should be alert to the potential impact brought by the development gap of domestic and global digital technologies. This paper helps to expand and deepen the understanding of the factors affecting the green transformation of manufacturing enterprises. It also brings important policy implications to the following aspects: the method of seizing strategic opportunities brought by digital technology, the first-mover advantage built on open integration and innovation, the narrowing of the gap with foreign digital development levels, and the stabilization of digital empowerment basis for the green transformation of the manufacturing industry.

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An Innovative Path of the Hainan Free Trade Port from the Perspective of Global Experience
JIN Guangtao, HUANG Shutian, TANG Rong
China Economic Transition    2023, 6 (2): 253-268.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-016-023-0010-5
Abstract   PDF (964KB)

The construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port (FTP) should not only exploit the advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics but also research and draw on the advanced institutions and successful experience of typical international free trade ports. The emergence of typical international free trade ports in Singapore, Dubai, and Chinese Hong Kong depends on an embedded international economic and trade order and institutional innovation practices. Both conditions are interactively embedded through a series of institutional designs with similar characteristics. The paper sorts out the necessary factors of the successful practice of typical international free trade ports, and proposes that the Hainan FTP should continue to exert its advantages by building on existing institutional innovation. At the same time, it should actively embed the regional multilateral international and economic and trade landscape represented by the Belt and Road Initiative and expedite institutional innovation and reform, and development in different fields, to create a socialist free trade port with Chinese characteristics.

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Prospects for China’s Agricultural Modernization by 2035
WANG Yahua, ZANG Liangzhen, SU Yiqing
China Economic Transition    2023, 6 (4): 399-415.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-016-023-0025-7
Abstract   PDF (578KB)

An important task of China’s agricultural development is to achieve modernization in all respects. The rural revitalization strategy was first introduced in the report to the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. This strategy now stands as the general guiding principle and central task of China’s agricultural initiatives in the new era and serves as a pivotal move toward advancing agricultural modernization. Taking into consideration the current situation of China’s agricultural development, the authors analyze the factors driving agricultural modernization and project the trajectory of agricultural modernization by 2035. The findings indicate that China has created a conducive institutional and development environment in production, consumption, industry, science and technology, trade, etc., thereby laying a solid foundation for its agricultural modernization. Projections suggest that by 2035, China will establish itself as the world’s preeminent nation in agricultural production and consumption, a powerhouse in agricultural industrialization and agricultural product trading, and a leading country in agricultural science and technology. However, China still faces tremendous challenges in terms of consumption structures, quality requirements, industrial development, format innovation, production methods, service functions, scientific and technological levels, and personnel structure. Therefore, on the path to agricultural modernization, China still needs to advance the structural reforms on the agricultural supply side, shift its agricultural production and operation methods, elevate its level of opening up in agriculture, and foster a deeper integration between urban and rural areas.

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Green Finance and Green Innovation of Enterprises
LI Rong, LIU Luxi
China Economic Transition    2023, 6 (1): 119-144.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-016-023-0005-3
Abstract   PDF (1690KB)

Against the backdrop of the carbon neutrality strategy, the key issue remains how green finance can boost enterprise green innovation and social transformation. The paper introduces the policy of Pilot Zones for Green Finance Reform and Innovations (“the PZGFRI Policy”) announced in 2017 as a quasi-natural experiment and probes into whether green finance has a significant impact on enterprise green innovation as well as its mechanism based on the green patent data of China’s A-share listed companies in the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2012 to 2019. The paper reaches the conclusion that the PZGFRI Policy has significantly promoted the green innovation of enterprises. In terms of heterogeneity of enterprise characteristics, it generates greater impacts on non-polluting firms, large-scale enterprises, and state-owned companies. For the heterogeneity of the financial environment, the PZGFRI Policy provides more benefits for those in regions with less competitive banks. As for the mechanism, green finance advances enterprise green innovation by increasing the proportion of long-term loans of enterprises and improving their debt structure. However, evidence related to financing cost channels has not yet been found. Continued improvement of the green financial system is preferred. Further, green finance should be encouraged to play an important role in the green transformation of society, the realization of carbon neutrality goals, and long-term ecological conservation.

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Economic Development in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area: Spatial Pattern, Influencing Factors, and Implications—Based on the Hierarchical Data of Two-Layer Administrative Regions
MA Jiayu, HAN Zhaozhou, JIANG Qingshan
China Economic Transition    2023, 6 (3): 287-316.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-016-023-0016-7
Abstract   PDF (1575KB)

This paper investigates the economic development within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from two perspectives—spatial pattern and influencing factors—to promote coordinated development across the area. This paper employs Moran's I test and local Getis-Ord G statistic from spatial statistics. Furthermore, it constructs a hierarchical spatial econometric model to facilitate empirical investigation. It is found that the overall economic development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area exhibits a mountainshaped” spatial pattern of the high-level homogeneous regions with “highhigh correlation” and the lowlevel homogeneous regions with “low-low correlation.” The internal difference in economic density is moderate, with an obvious trend of decrease year by year. Economic density shows a significant spatial positive correlation, with the expansion of the scope of areas exhibiting “high-high correlation.” The differences in economic density between hotspots and sub-hotspots have decreased, but the economic density of cold spots has failed to keep up with the development of other regions. The difference in factor input density among the influencing factors explains most of the differences in economic density among different regions. The results from the R&D capital investment coefficient indicate that in recent years, the effect of investments in urban scientific and technological innovation factors has been more extensive and uniform among the regions under its jurisdiction, but the spatial spillover effect of innovation factors at both layers is not significantly positive. Apart from the city’s location within the Greater Bay Area, the relative location of the jurisdictions within the city equally influences the economic development configuration of the Greater Bay Area. Although economic density in regions adjacent to cities outside the Greater Bay Area is notably lower than in other regions, their growth rate and production efficiency remain on par with other regions. T-test and model results underscore the rapid development of the areas encircling the bay. The coefficient of location dummy variables in areas adjacent to cities in the Greater Bay Area varies among cities. At a particular factor input density, some cities have higher output efficiency in areas contiguous to cities in the Greater Bay Area. This study uniquely adopts low-level city jurisdictions and high-level cities to shape a two-tiered hierarchical dataset with nested geographic units. This innovative approach fully leverages insights from distinct layers, delving into spatial interdependence and interplay across layers. This paper aims to explore the spatial pattern and influencing factors steering economic development in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. In doing so, it aims to identify problems and present pertinent policy recommendations.

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Does the Establishment of Pilot Free Trade Zones Improve the Efficiency of Financial Services for the Real Economy? Empirical Evidence from Four Pilot Free Trade Zones in Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, and Fujian
BA Shusong, CHAI Hongrui, FANG Yunlong, WANG Bo
China Economic Transition    2023, 6 (2): 145-179.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-016-023-0006-0
Abstract   PDF (4939KB)

In the process of the high-quality transformation and development of China’s economy, one of the issues that needs to be resolved is how to strengthen the ability of finance to serve the real economy and improve the efficiency of financial operations. Pilot Free Trade Zones (PFTZs), highlands of institutional innovation, have played the role of a natural testing ground for China to deepen its financial supply-side reform and improve the efficiency of financial services in the real economy. On that premise, this paper discusses the policy effects and transmission channels for the financial reform of PFTZs to improve the efficiency of financial services in the real economy within China. The findings of the papar are the followings, (1) The reform of PFTZs has significantly improved the efficiency of finance in the real economy, having even achieved a sustainable effect. That is to say, with the extension of the duration of free trade zone construction and the gradual implementation of financial reform measures, the regional impact of financial services in the real economy has shown a year-on-year upward trend. (2) The effects of financial agglomeration, financial transparency, and optimization of financial infrastructure produced by the reform of PFTZs have played a significant regulatory role in the process of improving the efficiency of financial services in the free trade zones. (3) The effect of China’s financial reform on PFTZs has fostered noticeable regional diversity; an important reason for the diversity of policy effect rests with the difference in transmission mechanisms. The conclusions of this paper expand the research dimension of the literature evaluating the effect of policy on PFTZs, and provide policy references from the perspective of financial reform in the free trade zones for China to further deepen financial supply-side reform and improve the efficiency of financial services in the real economy.

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International Experience and Hainan’s Path to Building a Free Trade Port
CAO Xiaolu, WANG Chongmin
China Economic Transition    2023, 6 (2): 180-195.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-016-023-0007-7
Abstract   PDF (769KB)

According to the unified arrangement of Document No. 12 of 2018 issued by the Central Committee of Communist Party of China (CPC) and the State Council, the first free trade port (FTP) with Chinese characteristics was to be built in Hainan. Certain difficulties and challenges will inevitably arise during the building of the port, including lack of a unified foreign trade structure, low added value for the tourism industry, low utilization rate of foreign investment, and lack of innovation and openness within the financial industry. However, Hainan also enjoys certain advantages that are conducive to the building of a FTP, such as the existence of its natural outlying islands, a sound ecological environment, experience in reform and innovation of special economic zones, and policy support from the central government, as well as other basic conditions beneficial to the construction of such a port. Hainan must learn from the successful experience of other international FTPs in areas such as trade regulation, business environment, port clearance, financial openness, and fiscal and tax policies. It will be necessary for China to benchmark not only against the highest international standards but also to focus on positioning by differentiated functions, lay a solid foundation for development and transcend policy incentives, make up for financial shortcomings, encourage financial openness and innovation, and carry out differentiated fiscal and tax policies. At the same time, the division of powers and functions between the central and local governments must be properly handled, and an integrated administrative organization that promotes collaboration between the central and local governments must be established.

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Basic Path and System Construction of Green and Low-Carbon Agricultural Development with Respect to the Strategic Target of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality
WANG Xueting, ZHANG Junbiao
China Economic Transition    2023, 6 (1): 34-56.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-016-023-0002-2
Abstract   PDF (1431KB)

The Dual Carbon strategy, which is aimed at achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, is one of China’s major strategies in the coming period. Agriculture is both an important source of greenhouse gas and a huge carbon sink system. To promote the Dual Carbon strategy, it is crucial for China to lay emphasis on green and low-carbon agricultural development. To achieve carbon peaking, agricultural carbon reduction and sequestration are significant means and have great potential. This paper firstly reviews the current situation of green and lowcarbon agricultural development. At present, the total agricultural carbon emissions in China are approaching the peak smoothly, and the proportion of carbon emissions generated by the use of such modern agricultural inputs as fertilizer and on-farm energy increases. Meanwhile, the operation of agricultural ecosystems in China demonstrates the strong capacity to absorb carbon. Then, the paper analyzes the main problems existing in green and low-carbon agricultural development, including excessive agricultural inputs and excessive consumption of fossil energy, the low utilization rate of agricultural resources, insufficient technical reserves for green and low-carbon agricultural development, and a weak supporting system. In the next part, the paper elaborates on the basic path and measures to realize green and low-carbon agricultural development, such as strengthening the conservation of agricultural resources and improving the efficiency of resource utilization; enhancing the comprehensive treatment of agricultural non-point source pollution, realizing the reduction and efficiency of fertilizer and pesticide, resource utilization of agricultural wastes, and effective control of white agricultural pollution; cultivating, expanding and strengthening green and low-carbon agricultural industries, and greening the whole industrial chain of agricultural products from production, processing to circulation; increasing scientific and technological innovation and building a scientific and technological support systems for green and low-carbon agricultural development. Finally, an institutional system to promote green and low-carbon agricultural development is constructed from the aspects of fiscal and taxation system, financial system, land management system, value realization mechanism of ecological products, and constraint and incentive mechanism, etc. This study provides a scientific basis for the further formulation of green and lowcarbon agricultural development policies and measures and relevant research.

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Analysis on Economic Resilience of the GuangdongHong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area: A Perspective from the Economic Connection Network
QIN Chenglin, LIU Liling
China Economic Transition    2023, 6 (3): 355-374.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-016-023-0019-8
Abstract   PDF (820KB)

In the face of an increasingly complex and unstable external development environment, enhancing economic resilience has become a key task in the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. This paper analyzes the changes in the economic resilience of the Guangdong-Hong KongMacao Greater Bay Area and its constituent cities after the 2008 global financial crisis by virtue of the regional economic resilience assessment method proposed by Martin et al. It constructs an economic connection network for the Guangdong-Hong KongMacao Greater Bay Area using the data from corporate headquarters and branches of A-share listed companies to analyze its impact on the economic resilience of the Area. The study reveals the three following conclusions. Firstly, the economic resilience of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area generally outperforms the national average level, seeing a rapid boost over the recent years and exceeding the level witnessed during the 2008 financial crisis. However, there are marked disparities in the economic resilience of various cities within the Greater Bay Area, with Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Dongguan emerging as the most robust in this regard. Secondly, the economic connection network has a positive impact on the economic resilience of the cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. Specifically, there is a positive correlation between a city’s economic resilience and its centrality in the economic connection network. Such centrality exerts a positive spillover effect on the economic resilience of surrounding cities. Thirdly, from the perspective of industryspecific networks, circulation and service industry networks are more conducive to improving the economic resilience of a city. Given the significant role of the economic connection network in shaping regional and urban economic resilience, it is imperative for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to prioritize ensuring economic development security and enhancing economic resilience,promote the development of the economic connection network, and enhance the network centrality of its constituent cities. This can improve the economic resilience of itself and its constituent cities in an effective manner.

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Green Transformation of Agricultural Production: Underlying Logic, Dilemma, and Viable Pathway
ZHU Junfeng, DENG Yuanyuan
China Economic Transition    2023, 6 (4): 442-457.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-016-023-0027-1
Abstract   PDF (1008KB)

The green transformation of agricultural production plays a crucial role in promoting the high-quality development of agriculture and achieving rural revitalization. In order to create favorable conditions for this to occur, it is essential to establish effective connections, transformation, and mutual support between capital endowment, external environment, and farmers’ green concepts. Additionally, the contracting of agricultural production facilitates service-oriented scale operations, while the deep integration of “Internet +” and agriculture with the advancement of green agricultural technology provides an inexhaustible impetus for it. However, China’s current green transformation of agricultural production continues to encounter challenges such as the depletion of a high-quality labor force, obstacles to building trust in the promotion of technology, and an underdeveloped green agricultural products market. To address these challenges, it is imperative to promote embedded agricultural technology which can catalyze the green contracting of agricultural production. Furthermore, advocating for the consumption of green agricultural products will also be beneficial in overcoming these challenges.

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Measurement on the Construction Level of China’s Green, Low-Carbon, and Circular-Development Economic System
ZHANG Youguo, DOU Ruoyu, BAI Yujie
China Economic Transition    2023, 6 (1): 1-33.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-016-023-0001-5
Abstract   PDF (818KB)

This study aims to measure how well China’s green, low-carbon, and circulardevelopment economic system (the GLCCD Economic System) is being developed. By establishing the indicator system and indicators, the spatiotemporal range entropy weight method, Gini coefficient, Theil index, σ convergence model, and national and provincial data from 2012 to 2017 are employed. The construction level of almost all GLCCD Economic Systems at national and provincial levels has shown improvement during the study period. Among them, a significant boost is only observed in the development power indicator; improvement in the production system indicator and development benefit indicator is mild, and the life system indicator sees a decline year by year. The construction level of the GLCCD Economic System throughout China is generally balanced but tends to expand in scale. However, the inter-regional development benefit indicator shows a convergence trend. Based on the analysis of the similarities and differences between green and low-carbon circular development, the development power and development benefit, production system, and life system are incorporated into a unified logical framework. The construction level of the GLCCD Economic System is measured as a whole in a holistic manner. This study finds out the scientific connotation of the GLCCD Economic System. The changing trends and regional differences in the construction level of the GLCCD Economic System are revealed. These findings provide a clear and reliable decision-making basis for the construction of the GLCCD Economic System.

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Development Reorientation of China’s Free Trade Zones under the New Development Paradigm of Dual Circulation: On the Reform Path of Free Trade Zones for the High-Quality Development of China’s Economy
WANG Aijian, FANG Yunlong
China Economic Transition    2023, 6 (2): 196-221.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-016-023-0008-4
Abstract   PDF (1787KB)

Against the backdrop of China’s development reality for the time being and upholding the basic logic of boosting the high-quality development of China’s economy, the authors give the historical background, realistic logic, theoretical connotation, and strategic significance of the new development paradigm of dual circulation a thorough interpretation. On this basis, the authors conduct a detailed analysis of the development path between China’s Free Trade Zones (FTZs) and the new development paradigm of dual circulation, as well as the new orientation of FTZs under this paradigm. Focusing on systems thinking, the new development paradigm of dual circulation not only opens up a new realm of open economic theory with Chinese characteristics but also enriches the socialist political economy with Chinese characteristics. From the perspective of the new development paradigm of dual circulation, China’s FTZs serve as a reform test field and a powerful starting point for driving the high-quality circulation of China’s economy. From another perspective, it is also an open bridgehead and a significant window for China to participate in international economic circulation. In this sense, China’s FTZs remain the key hub linking domestic and international circulations. China’s FTZs should be given greater reform autonomy. While focusing on the differentiated exploration and development models, the dividends of the first trial system should be fully utilized to integrate China’s FTZs into the national open development strategy. Thus, high-level open practice can be anticipated to boost the virtuous circle of domestic and foreign economies, with concerted efforts and drive China’s economy toward a high-quality future.

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The Impact of Digital Financial Inclusion on Agricultural Mechanization: Evidence from 1,869 Counties in China
SUN Xuetao, YU Ting, YU Fawen
China Economic Transition    2023, 6 (4): 416-441.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-016-023-0026-4
Abstract   PDF (1156KB)

In light of China’s generally backward agricultural mechanization levels, it becomes crucial to shore up this weak link with endogenous driving force. The digital financial inclusion offers a approach to addressing the challenges related to agricultural mechanization. This study, collecting data from 1,869 counties and using the Spatial Autoregressive Model with Spatial Autoregressive Disturbances (SARAR model), analyzes the equilibrium and disequilibrium effects of digital financial inclusion on agricultural mechanization, as well as the mechanisms through which digital financial inclusion operates. The findings indicate that both digital financial inclusion and agricultural mechanization exhibit spatial spillover effects. The development of digital financial inclusion emerges as a significant driver for promoting agricultural mechanization. Furthermore, the impact of digital financial inclusion on agricultural mechanization varies based on the level of agricultural economic development, with counties characterized by less developed agriculture, plain topography, and strong agricultural sectors benefiting more from digital financial inclusion. Additionally, digital financial inclusion indirectly boosts agricultural mechanization by increasing farmers’ income and encouraging investment in fixed assets. Therefore, it is crucial to harness the benefits brought by the development of digital financial inclusion while promoting agricultural mechanization, and regions should tailor their approaches to promote digital financial inclusion development according to their local conditions.

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The Path to a Low-Carbon Economy: From the Perspective of Industrial Planning
YU Zhuangxiong, CHEN Jie, DONG Jiemiao
China Economic Transition    2023, 6 (1): 90-118.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-016-023-0004-6
Abstract   PDF (1415KB)

Based on the carbon emission data of China’s manufacturing industry from 1998 to 2015, this paper examines the impact of carbon emission inclination of the central and local governments’ industrial planning on regional carbon emissions. The findings of this study suggest that central industrial planning focuses on the long-term goal of economic development and favors low carbon emission industries, while local governments are more inclined to short-term economic growth and focus more on high-carbon emission industries with high output. The support of local industrial planning for high-carbon emission industries can reduce the intensity of regional carbon emissions, while the influence of central industrial planning is not evident. The mechanism analysis shows that government support for some industries can improve the industrial added value and reduce the carbon emission intensity. As the output value and carbon emission level of high-carbon emission industries are higher, the decline of carbon emissions caused by local government support for high-carbon emission industries will eventually lead to the reduction of carbon emission intensity in the whole region. The research explains the different paths that the central and local governments choose to develop a low-carbon economy and analyses their influences.

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Spatial Spillover Effects of the Impact of Agricultural Mechanization on Carbon Emission Intensity in Agriculture: An Empirical Study Based on the Panel Data of 282 Cities
XU Qinghua, ZHANG Guangsheng
China Economic Transition    2023, 6 (4): 458-482.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-016-023-0028-8
Abstract   PDF (1115KB)

The extreme weather caused by the global warming effect has triggered huge losses to agricultural production. A hot issue for governments and scholars is how to effectively reduce carbon emission intensity in agriculture. The agricultural farming practices that are high pollution and high energy cosuming have exacerbated the vulnerability of regional agroecosystems. The sustainable development of agriculture is faced with the two dilemmas of a low utilization rate of green resources and the serious pollution of farmland. Further, environmental and ecological carrying capacities have reached their limits, seriously hindering the high-quality development of low-carbon agriculture in China. Thus, based on the panel data of 282 cities, the Spatial Dubin Model (SDM) is employed to examine the impact of agricultural mechanization on carbon emission intensity in agriculture. It is found that from 1999 to 2019 carbon emission intensity in agriculture showed an overall downward trend; as of 2019, the agricultural field had completed the target of carbon emission reduction, one year ahead of schedule. From a local perspective, approximately 14.89% of agricultural industries in prefecture-level city have still not achieved carbon emission reduction targets, and agricultural carbon emission reduction tasks were better completed in major grain-producing areas than in nonmajor grain-producing areas. Agricultural mechanization has significantly reduced carbon emission intensity in local agriculture production. The impact of agricultural mechanization on carbon emission intensity in agriculture has not only a significant negative spatial spillover effect but also a significant effect on spatial carbon emission reduction. Compared with non-major grain-producing areas, agricultural mechanization plays a greater role in reducing spatial carbon emissions in major grain-producing areas. Further studies find that agricultural mechanization is conducive to overcome difficulties, such as instability of property rights and land fragmentation, and to achieve large-scale agricultural production, thereby reducing agricultural carbon emissions in nearby regions. However, the transfer of rural labor, adjustments to the structure of agricultural cultivation, and the centralized use of rural land restrict the development of the crossregional service market for agricultural machinery, which in turn weaken its contribution to spatial carbon emission reduction. At the end of this paper, it is suggested that Chinese governments at all levels should introduce subsidy policies for the cross-regional operation of agricultural machinery to solve the problem of their service market failure. Efforts should be made to stimulate the market to develop more energy-efficient and environmentally friendly agricultural machinery products while strictly controlling changes in the use of arable land in non-grain-producing areas, which aims to serve further agricultural mechanization and boost the high-quality development of low-carbon agriculture.

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Research on the Integrated Development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area: Current Situation, Problems, and Countermeasures
SHAN Jingjing, ZHANG Zhuoqun
China Economic Transition    2023, 6 (3): 335-354.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-016-023-0018-1
Abstract   PDF (755KB)

The Guangdong-Hong KongMacao Greater Bay Area (the Greater Bay Area, the GBA) aims to facilitate in-depth cooperation among the Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao regions to create a worldclass bay area-based urban agglomeration. This endeavor seeks to guide China’s economy toward high-quality development and comprehensive opening-up. This paper examines the challenges and obstacles faced by Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao regarding regional coordinated development, thus putting forward the following standpoints. It proposes enhancing infrastructure interconnectivity to establish the GBA 1-hour Express Traffic Circle, thereby driving the construction of a worldclass international shipping and logistics hub. Furthermore, the paper advocates for establishing an industrial collaborative development system in the GBA, jointly creating a pilot zone for industrial transformation and upgrading, and further advancing market integration. Creating an international innovation corridor and innovation center for science and technology (S&T) industry is also essential. This initiative would center around critical sectors, improving S&T innovation chain, and building a talent cooperation demonstration zone. The paper also emphasizes the establishment of a transport and logistics hub for the Belt and Road Initiative, along with the joint development of a cultural, economic, and trade exchange platform under the “Belt and Road” framework. Leveraging the comparative advantages of the three regions, the paper underscores the importance of innovative collaboration models, fostering a mutually beneficial and complementary mechanism for synergistic development. These approaches aim to realize the integrated and innovative development of the GBA.

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Do Free Trade Zones Improve Air Quality?
HU Zongyi, ZHOU Jikun, LI Yi
China Economic Transition    2023, 6 (2): 222-252.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-016-023-0009-1
Abstract   PDF (1835KB)

As a new window of opening up to the outside world in the new era, the establishment of Free Trade Zones (FTZs) in China is an important national strategy for promoting high-quality economic development wherein the prevention and control of pollution is an important hurdle to be surmounted throughout the process. Based on data taken from model cities for environmental protection in China from 2008 to 2017, given the effect of policy spillover, this study considers the establishment of FTZs to be a “quasinatural experiment.” It uses the general analysis paradigm of spatial difference-indifference (DID) to systematically examine the impact of FTZs on air pollution as well as to conduct an in-depth analysis of their spatial heterogeneity and mechanism of action. The study shows that the establishment of FTZs significantly reduces the concentration of air pollutants in cities. If the spatial DID method is adopted to measure the policy spillover effect of the establishment of free trade zones, urban air pollutants declines by 12% to 17%, while the estimated result using the traditional DID method is only 7%. The establishment of FTZs significantly alleviates air pollution in neighboring non-pilot cities as well. Based on the range of the spillover effect from the center of the FTZ, it is found that the average spatial spillover effect presents as an inverted “U” curve as the research radius increases, with an optimal policy spillover effect radius of about 200km, while the policy spillover effect between pilot cities remains poor. The establishment of an FTZ not only improves the local atmospheric environment by promoting industrial structure optimization and green technology innovation in pilot cities but also generates a spillover effect on neighboring non-pilot cities through the same mechanism, thus contributing to improving the atmospheric environment in those non-pilot cities. These findings remain valid following a series of robustness tests such as the spatial parallel trend test and the placebo test. This study offers an answer to the key question of whether free trade zone policy can truly promote high-quality economic development in the new era. It provides useful policy insights for further expanding opening up, winning the battle for the prevention and control of pollution, and promoting the high-quality development of China’s economy.

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Academic News
Academic News
China Economic Transition    2023, 6 (3): 390-390.   https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-016-023-0022-6
Abstract   PDF (69KB)

Academic News

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