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Frontiers of Engineering Management

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Front. Eng    2015, Vol. 2 Issue (3) : 201-210    https://doi.org/10.15302/J-FEM-2015050
ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT TREATISES
Understanding Farmers’ Perceptions and Risk Responses to Climate Change in China
Yang-jie Wang1,Xiao-hong Chen2,*()
1. Business School of Central South University, Collaborative Innovation Center of Resource-conserving & Environment-friendly Society and Ecological Civilization, Changsha 410083, China
2. Business School of Central South University, Collaborative Innovation Center of Resource-conserving & Environment-friendly Society and Ecological Civilization; Hunan University of Commerce, Institute of Big Data and Internet Innovation, Changsha 410083/410205, China
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Abstract

Agriculture is likely to bear the brunt of the impacts of climate change. The extent to which these impacts are felt depends in large part on the extent of adaptation in response to climate change. The overall aim of this paper is to attempt to identify farmers’ knowledge, perceptions and risk responses towards climate change (or potential change). In order to achieve this goal, several specific objectives are pursued. First, the paper investigates whether or not farmers have perceived the long-term climate change and extreme weather events. Second, the paper describes how farmers respond to climate change and tries to assess the determinants of their adaptation. Based on data collected from a survey among farm households in three provinces in rural China, the findings demonstrate that farmers are aware of climate variability and identify the rising temperature, decreasing precipitation and the increasing frequency of drought. Only about 25% of farmers are willing to adjust their farming structures as a risk reaction. Household size, wealth, farm size, and the number of plots are found to be important factors that influence farmer adaptive capacity. Implications for policymaking on agriculture and adaptation to climate change will be to focus on providing farmers with information about the climate in time and facilitating enhancement of their adaptive capacity.
Keywords perception      climate change      agriculture      risk reaction      farmers      China     
Corresponding Author(s): Xiao-hong Chen   
Online First Date: 18 February 2016    Issue Date: 21 March 2016
 Cite this article:   
Yang-jie Wang,Xiao-hong Chen. Understanding Farmers’ Perceptions and Risk Responses to Climate Change in China[J]. Front. Eng, 2015, 2(3): 201-210.
 URL:  
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fem/EN/10.15302/J-FEM-2015050
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fem/EN/Y2015/V2/I3/201
QuestionsResponses
Knowledge (select one answer)
(1)Have you heard about the concept of global climate change?Yes/No
(2)If yes, is the temperature reported to be rising or decreasing?Rising/Decreasing/Do not know
(3)Have you heard about greenhouse gas emissions?Yes/No
(4)If yes, do you think there is a relationship between application of fertilizer and greenhouse gas emissions?Yes/No/Do not know
(5)Do you think heavy fertilization will affect local water quality?Yes/No/Do not know
Perceptions (select one answer)
(6)How do you believe has the annual temperature changed over the last 10 years?Increased/Decreased/unchanged/Do not know
(7)How do you believe has the annual rainfall changed over thelast 10 years?Increased/Decreased/unchanged/Do not know
(8)How do you believe have drought conditions changed over the last 10 years?Increased/Decreased/unchanged/Do not know
(9)How do you believe have freezing weather conditions changed over the last 10 years?Increased/Decreased/unchanged/Do not know
(10)How do you believe have flood disasters changed over the last 10 years?Increased/Decreased/unchanged/Do not know
Attitudes(Risk reactions to climate change)(select one answer)
(11)Given all other conditions remain the same, if the temperature is rising in the long run, will you switch to other crops?Yes/No
(12)If yes, which crops are you most likely to switch to?Open
(13)Given all other conditions remain the same, if the precipitation is increasing in the long run, will you switch to other crops?Yes/No
(14)If yes, which crops are you most likely to switch to?Open
(15)Given all other conditions remain the same, if the precipitation is decreasing in the long run, will you switch to other crops?Yes/No
(16)If yes, which crops are you most likely to switch to?Open
Tab.1  Questions Asked of Farmers to Examine Their Response to Climate Issues
CharacteristicsGuangdongShanxiQinghaiTotal
Samples240180200620
Household size/persons5.354.694.434.86
(1.81)(1.59)(1.36)(1.66)
Wealth (value of durable consumption)/(10,000 CNY)1.201.160.981.12
(1.73)(2.10)(0.96)(1.65)
Walking time to the village border/hours0.610.730.410.58
(0.49)(0.64)(0.35)(0.52)
Average age of household head/years50.7651.3351.3151.10
(9.76)(10.01)(9.46)(9.74)
Average education of household head/years7.986.505.826.85
(2.79)(3.21)(3.60)(3.32)
Share of families having female household head (1=male)/%0.030.060.050.04
(0.16)(0.23)(0.22)(0.20)
Share of household head being a village cadre (1=yes)/%0.150.080.210.15
(0.35)(0.27)(0.41)(0.35)
Farmland size/mua)15.4826.2011.6517.36
(33.01)(41.80)(7.61)(31.29)
Number of land plots13.005.526.838.84
(10.20)(4.44)(2.94)(7.74)
Tab.2  Summary Statistics of Farmers' Socio-economic Characteristics
ProvinceTotal samplesKnow the concept of global climate changeOf which, think that the temperature discussed is rising
No. of obs.No. of obs.%No. of obs.%
(1)(2)(3)=(2)/(1)(4)(5)=(4)/(2)
Total62032852.929991.2
Guangdong24011447.59986.8
Shanxi18010357.29289.3
Qinghai20011155.510897.3
Tab.3  Farmers’ Knowledge about Global Climate Change, 2011
ProvinceSamplesKnow the concept of GHG emissionOf which, know the relationship between GHG emission and fertilizers application
No. of obs.No. of obs.%No. of obs.%
(1)(2)(3)=(2)/(1)(4)(5)=(4)/(2)
Total62012319.84435.8
Guangdong2404518.81328.9
Shanxi1804122.81946.3
Qinghai2003718.51232.4
Tab.4  Farmers’ Knowledge about the Concept of GHG Emission, 2011
TotalGuangdongShanxiQinghai
No. of obs.%No. of obs.%No. of obs.%No. of obs.%
Panel A: Farmers’ perceptions of changes in temperature in the past 10 yearsTotal620100240100.0180100200100
Rising51482.920083.312368.319195.5
Declining355.672.92413.342.0
No change579.22711.32614.442.0
Unknown142.362.573.910.5
Panel B: Farmers’ perceptions of changes in precipitation in the past 10 yearsTotal620100240100180100200100
Rising14523.43313.87742.83517.5
Declining33954.712953.86536.114572.5
No change10216.55322.13318.3168.0
Unknown345.52510.452.842.0
Tab.5  Farmers’ Perceptions towards Climate Change
TotalGuangdongShanxiQinghai
No. of obs.%No. of obs.%No. of obs.%No. of obs.%
Panel A:Farmers’ perceptions of the drought frequency in the past 10 yearsTotal620100240100180100200100
Rising40765.615162.99552.816180.5
Declining8213.22610.83821.1189
No change11318.25422.54022.2199.5
Unknown182.993.873.921
Panel B:Farmers’ perceptions of the frost frequency in the past 10 yearsTotal620100240100180100200100
Rising9214.848202614.4189
Declining149245522.94223.35226
No change29948.210644.29150.610251
Unknown8012.93112.92111.72814
Panel C:Farmers’ perceptions of the flood frequency in the past 10 yearsTotal620100240100180100200100
Rising12820.67932.94726.131.5
Declining9515.34920.4147.83216
No change29848.19037.59452.211457
Unknown9815.8229.22513.95125.5
Tab.6  Farmers’ Perceptions towards Extreme Weather Events (Drought, Frost, and Flood)
ProvinceSamplesIf temperature is rising in the long run, switch to other cropsIf precipitation is rising in the long run, switch to other cropsIf precipitation is declining in the long run, switch to other crops
No. of obs.No. of obs.%No. of obs.%No. of obs.%
(1)(2)(3)=(2)/(1)(4)(5)=(4)/(1)(6)(7)=(6)/(1)
Total620161261632614824
Guangdong240371545194720
Shanxi180392241233419
Qinghai200854377396734
Tab.7  Farmers’ Risk Responses towards Climate Change
WheatMaizeRiceSweet potatoPotatoSoybeanVegetableOil cropsSugar crops
GuangdongRisingtemperature021100220
Risingprecipitation009000303
Decliningprecipitation020300132
ShanxiRisingtemperature130042110
Risingprecipitation271121020
Decliningprecipitation120051120
QinghaiRisingtemperature170010760
Risingprecipitation620040450
Decliningprecipitation420041150
Tab.8  Potential Crops Farmers are Willing to Switch to under Climate Change
Variables(1)(2)(3)
Household size0.009?0.0060.019*
(0.011)(0.012)(0.011)
Age of household head?0.007***?0.002?0.005***
(0.002)(0.002)(0.002)
Education of household head0.010*0.0090.009
(0.006)(0.006)(0.006)
Male of household head?0.0820.0030.074
(0.090)(0.086)(0.080)
Wealth (value of durable consumption)/(10,000 CNY)?0.032**?0.011?0.011
(0.015)(0.012)(0.012)
Farmland size/mu0.0000.002***0.001**
(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)
Number of land plots?0.008**?0.003?0.004
(0.003)(0.003)(0.003)
Walking time to the village border/hours?0.044*?0.025?0.015
(0.026)(0.025)(0.017)
Province dummiesyesyesyes
pseudo R20.1030.0510.049
Tab.9  Determinants of Farmer Risk Reaction to Increasing Temperature, Increasing Precipitation, and Decreasing Precipitation
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