Collaborative control of fine particles and ozone required in China for health benefit

doi:10.1007/s11783-023-1692-2

Front. Environ. Sci. Eng.

2023, Vol. 17

Issue (8) : 92 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11783-023-1692-2

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Collaborative control of fine particles and ozone required in China for health benefit

Ling Qi, Zhige Tian, Nan Jiang, Fangyuan Zheng, Yuchen Zhao, Yishuo Geng, Xiaoli Duan(

)

School of Energy and Environmental Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China

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Abstract

● Increased DAAO offsets 3/4 of the decrease of DAAP in 2013–2020.

● DAAO increases are mainly due to O₃ concentration increase and population aging.

● Health benefit from PM_2.5 reduction after 2017 is larger than that before 2017.

● Reducing PM_2.5 concentration by 1% results in 0.6% reduction of DAAP.

● Reducing O₃ concentration by 1% results in 2% reduction of DAAO.

PM_2.5 concentration declined significantly nationwide, while O₃ concentration increased in most regions in China in 2013–2020. Recent evidences proved that peak season O₃ is related to increased death risk from non-accidental and respiratory diseases. Based on these new evidences, we estimate excess deaths associated with long-term exposure to ambient PM_2.5 and O₃ in China following the counterfactual analytic framework from Global Burden Disease. Excess deaths from non-accidental diseases associated with long-term exposure to ambient O₃ in China reaches to 579 (95% confidential interval (CI): 93, 990) thousand in 2020, which has been significantly underestimated in previous studies. In addition, the increased excess deaths associated with long-term O₃ exposure (234 (95% CI: 177, 282) thousand) in 2013–2020 offset three quarters of the avoided excess deaths (302 (95% CI: 244, 366) thousand) mainly due to PM_2.5 exposure reduction. In key regions (the North China Plain, the Yangtze River Delta and the Fen-Wei Plain), the former is even larger than the latter, particularly in 2017–2020. Health benefit of PM_2.5 concentration reduction offsets the adverse effects of population growth and aging on excess deaths attributed to PM_2.5 exposure. Increase of excess deaths associated with O₃ exposure is mainly due to the strong increase of O₃ concentration, followed by population aging. Considering the faster population aging process in the future, collaborative control, and faster reduction of PM_2.5 and O₃ are needed to reduce the associated excess deaths.

Keywords Excess deaths Long-term exposure Fine particle Ozone

Corresponding Author(s): Xiaoli Duan

Issue Date: 16 February 2023

Cite this article:

Ling Qi,Zhige Tian,Nan Jiang, et al. Collaborative control of fine particles and ozone required in China for health benefit[J]. Front. Environ. Sci. Eng., 2023, 17(8): 92.

URL:

https://academic.hep.com.cn/fese/EN/10.1007/s11783-023-1692-2
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fese/EN/Y2023/V17/I8/92

Fig.1 Annual excess deaths associated with long-term exposure to ambient PM_2.5 (a) and O₃ (b). Error bars are 95% confidence intervals. Abbreviations for the health endpoints. NCD + LRI: nonaccidental deaths due to noncommunicable disease (NCD) and lower respiratory infection (LRI); IHD: ischemic heart disease; STR: stroke; COPD: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; LC: lung cancer; NAD: non-accidental disease; CVD: cardiovascular disease; RD: respiratory disease.

NCD + LRI	Deaths (thousand)						Age-standardized death rate (deaths per 100000 people)
	Net Changes in 2013–2020		Average annual rate of change (%/a)				Net Changes in 2013–2020		Average annual rate of change (%/a)
	DAAP	DAAO	PM_2.5		O₃		PM_2.5	O₃	PM_2.5		O₃
	−302 (−366, −244)	–	2013–2017−2.6 (−2.8, −2.4)	2017–2020−1.3 (−1.5, −1.1)	2013–2017–	2017–2020–	−38 (−41, −35)	–	2013–2017−4.4 (−4.6, −4.3)	2017–2020−5.3 (−5.4, −5.1)	2013–2017–	2017–2020–
NAD	–	234 (177, 282)	–	–	13.1 (12.8, 13.5)	3.3 (3.3, 3.3)	–	6 (3, 8)	–	–	8.8 (9.1, 8.6)	−0.8 (−0.8, −0.8)
5-COD(RD + CVD)	−85 (−164, −23)	123 (98, 146)	−1.2 (−1.4, −1.1)	0.5 (0.3, 0.6)	8.5 (7.5, 8.7)	6.8 (6.7, 6.8)	−21 (−25, −18)	3 (2, 4)	−2.9 (−2.9, −2.8)	−3.2 (−3.3, −3.1)	4.3 (3.4, 4.5)	2.0 (1.9, 2.0)
NCP	−38 (−49, −29)	55 (43, 64)	−2.3 (−2.6, −2.0)	−0.6 (−0.9, −0.3)	15.2 (14.7, 15.8)	4.8 (4.8, 4.9)	−60 (−65, −56)	11 (7, 15)	−5.8 (−6.0, −5.5)	−5.0 (−5.2, −4.7)	8.3 (7.8, 8.7)	0.7 (0.7, 0.7)
YRD	−75 (−87, −64)	62 (50, 73)	−3.8 (−4.1, −3.5)	−0.9 (−1.2, −0.7)	12.7 (12.4, 13.1)	8.7 (8.6, 8.8)	−56 (−60, −53)	8 (5, 11)	−6.5 (−6.8, −6.3)	−6.1 (−6.3, −5.9)	6.6 (6.4, 6.9)	2.5 (2.5, 2.6)
PRD	−15 (−17, −13)	6 (5, 7)	−3.4 (−3.6, −3.3)	−4.0 (−4.3, −3.8)	27.9 (27.3, 28.6)	−2.6 (−2.5, −2.7)	−40 (−42, −37)	3 (2, 5)	−5.4 (−5.5, −5.3)	−7.0 (−7.2, −6.8)	16.4 (16.0, 16.7)	−6.5 (−6.4, −6.5)
FWP	−3 (−5, −1)	8 (6, 10)	−1.1 (−1.3, −1.0)	0.2 (0, 1.4)	11.8 (11.5, 12.2)	1.7 (1.7, 1.8)	−36 (−40, −32)	8 (4, 11)	−3.8 (−4.0, −3.7)	−3.4 (−3.5, −3.2)	7.1(6.8, 7.3)	0.1 (0.1, 0.2)
LC	29 (18, 39)	–	−0.5 (−1.1, 0)	5.4 (4.8, 6.1)	–	–	−1 (−2, −1)	–	−4.4 (−4.6, −4.3)	−5.3 (−5.4, −5.1)	–	–
Stroke	−133 (−169, −105)	–	−2.5 (−3.2, −1.9)	−4.9 (−5.6, −4.3)	–	–	−8 (−10, −6)	–	−2.6 (−3.0, −2.2)	−0.8 (−1.3, −0.5)	–	–
LRI	3 (−2, 6)	–	−1.2 (−1.9, −0.7)	3.1 (2.1, 4.0)	–	–	−1 (−1, −1)	–	−2.2 (−2.8, −1.7)	−5.4 (−6.0, −4.8)	–	–
IHD	102 (93, 110)	–	1.9 (1.7, 2.1)	2.6 (2.4, 2.8)	–	–	−3 (−4, −3)	–	−4.0 (−4.5, −3.6)	−2.2 (−3.0, −1.6)	–	–
COPD	−87 (−105, −72)	–	−6.8 (−7.2, −6.3)	−0.4 (−1.0, 0.2)	–	–	−8 (−9, −7)	–	−0.8 (−1.0, −0.7)	−1.9 (−2.1, −1.8)	–	–
RD	–	16 (8, 22)	–	–	5.3 (4.9, 5.7)	0 (0, 0)	–	0 (0, 0)	–	–	1.7 (1.4, 2.0)	−2.4 (−2.4, −2.4)
CVD	–	107 (90, 124)	–	–	11.2 (11.0, 11.3)	9.5 (9.5, 9.5)	–	3 (2, 4)	–	–	7.0 (6.8, 7.1)	4.3 (4.3, 4.3)

Tab.1 Region- and disease-specific deaths associated with long-term exposure to ambient PM_2.5 and O₃ in China

Fig.2 Factors controlling changes of DAAP (a) and DAAO (b) in 2013–2017 and 2017–2020 in China.

Fig.3 Changes of DAAP (ΔDAAP) over changes of population-weighted annual mean PM_2.5 concentrations (Δ[PM_2.5], μg/m³) at different PM_2.5 levels (a) and changes of DAAO (ΔDAAO) over changes of population-weighted peak season mean O₃ concentrations (Δ[O₃], μg /m³) at different O₃ levels in China (b) in experiment “concentration” (See definition in Section 2.3).

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