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Front. Energy    2020, Vol. 14 Issue (4) : 740-758    https://doi.org/10.1007/s11708-018-0558-y
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Peak CO2 emission in the region dominated by coal use and heavy chemical industries: a case study of Dezhou city in China
Sheng ZHOU1, Maosheng DUAN1, Zhiyi YUAN1, Xunmin OU2()
1. Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
2. Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; China Automotive Energy Research Center, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
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Abstract

This paper studies the pathways of peaking CO2 emissions of Dezhou city in China, by employing a bottom-up sector analysis model and considering future economic growth, the adjustment of the industrial structure, and the trend of energy intensity. Two scenarios (a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and a CO2 mitigation scenario (CMS)) are set up. The results show that in the BAU scenario, the final energy consumption will peak at 25.93 million tons of coal equivalent (Mtce) (16% growth versus 2014) in 2030. In the CMS scenario, the final energy will peak in 2020 at 23.47 Mtce (9% lower versus peak in the BAU scenario). The total primary energy consumption will increase by 12% (BAU scenario) and decrease by 3% (CMS scenario) in 2030, respectively, compared to that in 2014. In the BAU scenario, CO2 emission will peak in 2025 at 70 million tons of carbon dioxide (MtCO2), and subsequently decrease gradually in 2030. In the CMS scenario, the peak has occurred in 2014, and 60 MtCO2 will be emitted in 2030. Active policies including restructuring the economy, improving energy efficiency, capping coal consumption, and using more low-carbon /carbon free fuel are recommended in Dezhou city peaked CO2 emission as early as possible.
Keywords carbon dioxide emission      energy consumption      peak CO2 emission      low-carbon transition      Dezhou city      China     
Corresponding Author(s): Xunmin OU   
Just Accepted Date: 20 March 2018   Online First Date: 23 April 2018    Issue Date: 21 December 2020
 Cite this article:   
Sheng ZHOU,Maosheng DUAN,Zhiyi YUAN, et al. Peak CO2 emission in the region dominated by coal use and heavy chemical industries: a case study of Dezhou city in China[J]. Front. Energy, 2020, 14(4): 740-758.
 URL:  
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fie/EN/10.1007/s11708-018-0558-y
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fie/EN/Y2020/V14/I4/740
Fig.1  Framework of the quantitative analysis model in this study
Sectori Type Subsector i, j
j = 1 j = 2 j = 3 j = 4 j = 5 j = 6
i = 1 Industrial Steel Cement Chemical Petroleum Paper Other sectors
i = 2 Building Public Residential - - - -
i = 3 Transportation Passenger Freight Private vehicle - - -
Tab.1  Final energy demand sectors and subsectors
Item BAU CMS
2005 2010 2014 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030
Population/million 5.58 5.70 5.83 6.05 5.99 5.93 Same to BAU
Urbanization rate/% 38.26 42.92 48.45 58.41 66.70 75.00
GDP (2014 price)/billion 87.00 167.70 259.61 434.14 605.03 788.08
Share of GDP (Primary industry)/% 16.38 12.70 10.42 7.59 6.30 5.51 7.65 6.36 5.52
Share of GDP (Secondary industry)/% 54.15 54.26 50.31 53.08 53.24 51.98 49.93 46.76 42.12
Share of GDP (Tertiary industry)/% 29.47 33.04 39.26 39.32 40.46 42.51 42.42 46.88 52.37
Tab.2  Social and economic data in two scenarios in future Dezhou city [6,10]
2005 2010 2014 2020 2025 2030
Steel/(tce?t−1) 0.76 0.72 0.69 0.66 0.65 0.64
Cement/(tce?t−1) 0.10 0.09 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.06
Petroleum/(tce?t−1) 0.23 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.19 0.18
Chemical/(tce?t−1) 3.99 3.42 3.41 3.29 3.18 3.07
Paper/(tce?t−1) 0.61 0.45 0.44 0.43 0.42 0.40
Electricity/(gce?kWh −1) 370 333 319 307 297 287
Other/(10−3tce?CNY−1) 4.9 4.0 2.6 2.0 1.6 1.2
Public/(kgce?m−2) 21.04 21.41 25.07 29.29 31.41 33.52
Residential/(kgce?m−2) 19.07 18.04 18.16 20.07 21.03 21.99
Passenger/
(10−4toe?(person·km) −1)		 2.26 2.11 1.96 1.81
Freight/
(10−4toe?(tons·km) −1)		 0.63 0.59 0.55 0.51
Private vehicle/(toe?car−1) 0.96 0.90 0.83 0.77
Tab.3  Energy intensity of key productions/subsectors for BAU and CMS scenarios [6,8,10]
Fig.2  Energy structure by sector for Dezhou city in 2014
BAU CMS
2005 2010 2014 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030
Steel/Mt 1.07 2.70 4.49 4.49 4.49 4.49 4.16 3.88 3.60
Cement/Mt 4.14 4.66 4.30 4.30 4.30 4.30 3.98 3.71 3.44
Petroleum/Mt 0.38 1.09 2.42 2.42 2.42 2.42 2.24 2.09 1.94
Chemical/Mt 1.20 1.48 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 1.95 1.82 1.69
Paper/Mt 1.44 1.89 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.11 1.04 0.96
Electricity/TWh 17.0 17.9 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 16.8 16.2 15.7
Public building/km−2 17 17 19 22 23 24 22 22 23
Residential building/km−2 170 190 212 242 240 237 240 232 225
Passenger transport/(10−9? (person?km)−1) 5.7 7.2 8.4 9.1 9.9 8.3 8.9 9.4
Freight transport/(10−9? (tons?km)−1) 30.3 40.9 46.3 49.2 52.1 45.9 47.7 49.5
Private vehicle/thousand 220 380 580 900 1160 1420 890 1130 1350
Tab.4  Output of key productions/subsectors [6,7,10]
Fig.3  Final energy demand by sector in BAU (left) and CMS (right) scenarios
Fig.4  Final energy demand by fuel type in BAU (left) and CMS (right) scenarios
Fig.5  Energy demand of industrial sectors in BAU (left) and CMS (right) scenarios
Fig.6  Energy demand of the building sector in BAU (left) and CMS (right) scenarios
Fig.7  Energy demand of the transport sector in BAU (left) and CMS (right) scenarios
Fig.8  Electricity demand and supply in BAU (left) and CMS (right) scenarios
Fig.9  Total primary energy consumption in BAU (left) and CMS (right) scenarios
Fig.10  CO2 emissions under the two scenarios in BAU (left) and CMS (right) scenarios (CO2 emssion refers to that embodied in the electricity import or from coal, oil and gas.)
Fig.11  CO2 emissions per capita (left axis) and per GDP (right axis)
Fig.12  CO2 reduction contribution of different factors (2014 – 2030)
Item BAU CMS
2005 2010 2014 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030
Industry
Sub-total/Mtce 7.18 11.19 15.16 15.59 15.91 15.67 14.46 13.79 12.60
Coal/Mtce 5.89 8.81 12.06 11.89 11.98 11.78 11.01 10.35 9.44
Oil/Mtce 0.36 0.62 0.80 0.81 0.75 0.66 0.75 0.66 0.54
Gas/Mtce 0.02 0.14 0.24 0.32 0.38 0.41 0.30 0.33 0.33
Electricity/Mtce 0.91 1.62 2.06 2.57 2.81 2.82 2.39 2.45 2.29
Building
Sub-total/Mtce 4.63 4.92 5.60 6.95 7.22 7.48 6.88 7.00 7.10
Coal/Mtce 3.56 4.08 4.69 5.40 5.39 5.39 5.34 5.23 5.12
Oil/Mtce 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gas/Mtce 0.35 0.22 0.25 0.42 0.49 0.55 0.42 0.48 0.53
Electricity/Mtce 0.73 0.62 0.66 1.13 1.33 1.53 1.12 1.29 1.46
Transport
Sub-total/Mtce 1.09 1.20 1.60 2.15 2.50 2.79 2.12 2.43 2.65
Coal/Mtce 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Oil/Mtce 0.96 1.05 1.41 1.89 2.20 2.45 1.87 2.14 2.33
Gas/Mtce 0.09 0.10 0.13 0.17 0.20 0.22 0.17 0.20 0.21
Electricity/Mtce 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.09 0.10 0.11
Final energy demand total
Sub-total/Mtce 12.90 17.31 22.36 24.69 25.63 25.93 23.47 23.21 22.35
Coal/Mtce 9.45 12.89 16.75 17.28 17.37 17.17 16.35 15.58 14.56
Oil/Mtce 1.32 1.68 2.21 2.70 2.95 3.11 2.62 2.79 2.86
Gas/Mtce 0.46 0.46 0.61 0.92 1.08 1.19 0.89 1.00 1.07
Electricity/Mtce 1.68 2.28 2.79 3.79 4.24 4.47 3.60 3.84 3.85
Power
Sub-total of fuel input/Mtce 6.29 5.97 5.55 5.34 5.17 5.00 5.14 4.81 4.50
Coal/Mtce 6.13 5.81 5.40 5.20 5.03 4.86 5.01 4.69 4.38
Oil/Mtce 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gas/Mtce 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12
Total fossil generation/TWh 17.01 17.93 17.40 17.40 17.40 17.40 16.75 16.20 15.66
Import electricity/TWh –3.33 0.64 4.43 11.75 14.08 15.49 9.99 11.62 11.40
Renewable electricity/TWh 0.86 1.72 3.01 3.44 2.58 3.44 4.30
  Table A1 Final energy demand and power sector energy consumption in Dezhou city
Item BAU CMS
2005 2010 2014 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030
Primary energy consumption/Mtce 17.11 21.07 25.78 27.89 28.66 28.79 26.55 26.04 24.92
Coal/Mtce 15.58 18.70 22.15 22.49 22.40 22.03 21.36 20.26 18.94
Oil/Mtce 1.32 1.68 2.22 2.70 2.95 3.11 2.62 2.79 2.87
Gas/Mtce 0.62 0.62 0.76 1.06 1.21 1.32 1.02 1.13 1.19
Renewable electricity/Mtce 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.21 0.37 0.42 0.32 0.42 0.53
Import electricity/Mtce -0.41 0.08 0.54 1.44 1.73 1.90 1.23 1.43 1.40
Share/%
Coal/% 91.1 88.7 85.9 80.6 78.2 76.5 80.4 77.8 76.0
Oil/% 7.7 8.0 8.6 9.7 10.3 10.8 9.9 10.7 11.5
Gas/% 3.6 2.9 2.9 3.8 4.2 4.6 3.9 4.3 4.8
Renewable electricity/% 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.6 2.1
Import electricity/% -2.4 0.4 2.1 5.2 6.0 6.6 4.6 5.5 5.6
CO2 emission/Mt 45.66 55.22 66.35 69.49 70.37 70.04 66.15 63.93 60.64
Per capita emission/tCO2 8.26 9.69 11.80 11.89 10.98 10.07 11.21 9.94 8.66
Per 1000 CNY (GDP) emission/tCO2 50.4 32.3 25.5 16.0 12.4 08.8 15.3 11.5 07.7
  Table A2 Primary energy consumption and CO2 emission in Dezhou city
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