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应对气候变化,推动能源革命
杜祥琬
Frontiers in Energy. 2018, 12 (3): 338-343.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11708-018-0535-5
巴黎协定”标志着全球绿色、低碳发展进入新阶段,中国应对气候变化的国际责任和国内可持续发展的内在需求高度一致。基于世界典型发达国家能源经济学数据的分析,解读了我国提出的INDC的合理性,并说明低碳发展可以通向现代化。能源革命是中国低碳转型的基础,从五个方面阐述了中国能源低碳转型的路径,基于中国工程院课题组的研究,分析了中国能源结构变革的三个历史阶段。 以能源革命推动低碳发展是一个历史过程,具有长期性和艰巨性,需要切实转变观念、转变发展方式。通过国内外的实证分析,说明发展和低碳是可以双赢的,低碳发展将培育新的经济增长点,创造新型发展道路。
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How diplomacy saved the COP21 Paris Climate Conference, but now, can we save ourselves?
D. Nathaniel MULCAHY, David L. MULCAHY
Frontiers in Energy. 2018, 12 (3): 344-352.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11708-017-0498-y
To solve a problem, three things are necessary: awareness, means, and will. The 2015 COP21 Paris accord was a masterful, perhaps even world-saving, diplomatic advance toward making the world aware of climate change. Some of that success may have been because publications from the IPCC and the National Academy of Science were made available, on line, as prepublication offerings, in order to be widely viewed before the Paris Climate Conference. This provided diplomats and negotiators with the latest information about climate change, its nearness in time, its consequences, and how well current mitigation technologies can succeed. Whatever the reasons, the Paris Climate Conference, was a success. Leaders of 195 nations agreed that climate change is a real and present danger to life as is known to all. This important understanding was accomplished despite the presentation of well established scientific facts which, without very diplomatic handling, could easily have evoked overwhelming political opposition to an agreement and thus another COP failure. In this paper, the fact that how some scientific truths, written specifically to be overlooked, were presented in order to prepare COP21 participants for the conference is explained. Besides, the effectiveness and efficiency of currently favored mitigation policies, the extent of ongoing progress to better ones, and finally, how a new appreciation of climate change consequences can strengthen the will of nation states and industries to work toward solutions are evaluated.
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Effects of the US withdrawal from Paris Agreement on the carbon emission space and cost of China and India
Hancheng DAI, Yang XIE, Haibin ZHANG, Zhongjue YU, Wentao WANG
Frontiers in Energy. 2018, 12 (3): 362-375.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11708-018-0574-y
Climate mitigation has become a global issue and most countries have promised their greenhouse gas reduction target. However, after Trump took office as president of the United States (US), the US withdrew from the Paris Agreement. As the biggest economy, this would have impacts on the emission space of other countries. This paper, by using the integrated model of energy, environment and economy/computable general equilibrium (IMED/CGE) model, assesses the impacts of the US withdrawal from Paris Agreement on China, India in terms of carbon emission space and mitigation cost under Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and 2°C scenarios due to changed emission pathway of the US. The results show that, under the condition of constant global cumulative carbon emissions and fixed burden sharing scheme among the countries, the failure of the US to honor its NDC commitment will increase its carbon emission space and decrease its mitigation cost. However, the carbon emission space of other regions, including China and India, will be reduced and their mitigation costs will be raised. In 2030, under the 2°C target, the carbon price will increase by US$14.3 to US$45.3/t in China and by US$10.7 to US$33.9/t in India. In addition, China and India will incur additional GDP loss. Under the 2°C target, the GDP loss of China would increase by US$23.3 to US$72.6 billion (equivalent to US$17.4 to US$54.2/capita), and that of India would rise by US$14.2 to US$43.1 billion (equivalent to US$9.3 to US$28.2/capita).
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Employing electricity-consumption monitoring systems and integrative time-series analysis models: A case study in Bogor, Indonesia
Seiya MAKI, Shuichi ASHINA, Minoru FUJII, Tsuyoshi FUJITA, Norio YABE, Kenji UCHIDA, Gito GINTING, Rizaldi BOER, Remi CHANDRAN
Frontiers in Energy. 2018, 12 (3): 426-439.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11708-018-0560-4
The Paris Agreement calls for maintaining a global temperature less than 2°C above the pre-industrial level and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5°C. To realize this objective and promote a low-carbon society, and because energy production and use is the largest source of global greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, it is important to efficiently manage energy demand and supply systems. This, in turn, requires theoretical and practical research and innovation in smart energy monitoring technologies, the identification of appropriate methods for detailed time-series analysis, and the application of these technologies at urban and national scales. Further, because developing countries contribute increasing shares of domestic energy consumption, it is important to consider the application of such innovations in these areas. Motivated by the mandates set out in global agreements on climate change and low-carbon societies, this paper focuses on the development of a smart energy monitoring system (SEMS) and its deployment in households and public and commercial sectors in Bogor, Indonesia. An electricity demand prediction model is developed for each device using the Auto-Regression eXogenous model. The real-time SEMS data and time-series clustering to explore similarities in electricity consumption patterns between monitored units, such as residential, public, and commercial buildings, in Bogor is, then, used. These clusters are evaluated using peak demand and Ramadan term characteristics. The resulting energy-prediction models can be used for low-carbon planning.
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