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Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering

ISSN 2095-2201

ISSN 2095-221X(Online)

CN 10-1013/X

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Front Envir Sci Eng Chin    2011, Vol. 5 Issue (3) : 445-458    https://doi.org/10.1007/s11783-011-0330-6
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Analysis of driving forces behind diversified carbon dioxide emission patterns in regions of the mainland of China
Xin TIAN1,2, Hidefumi IMURA1, Miao CHANG2(), Feng SHI1, Hiroki TANIKAWA1
1. Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya 464-8601, Japan; 2. School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
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Abstract

China has large regional disparities in carbon dioxide CO2 emissions with economic development among its 31 provincial mainland regions. This paper investigates these disparities in CO2 emission patterns and identifies the factors underlying the differences. Results show that the 30 study China's mainland provinces (Tibet not included) can be divided into seven groups with three typical CO2 emission patterns. Index decomposition results indicate that changes in economic development, the industrial sector, and technology contribute far more to increased CO2 emissions than do population, energy structure, and other sectors. Close inspection reveals that different industry structures and technology contribute greatly to the differences observed in CO2 emissions between provinces with similar economic output. This study highlights the importance of region-specific industrial structure adjustment policies, especially for regions transitioning to heavy industry and for those still in the primary stages of industrialization. The potential application of a domestic carbon emissions trading system, to encourage regional investment in updated technology, is also discussed.
Keywords carbon dioxide emission patterns      China      economic development      index decomposition analysis      industrialization     
Corresponding Author(s): CHANG Miao,Email:tianx05@gmail.com, changmiao@tsinghua.edu.cn   
Issue Date: 05 September 2011
 Cite this article:   
Xin TIAN,Hidefumi IMURA,Miao CHANG, et al. Analysis of driving forces behind diversified carbon dioxide emission patterns in regions of the mainland of China[J]. Front Envir Sci Eng Chin, 2011, 5(3): 445-458.
 URL:  
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fese/EN/10.1007/s11783-011-0330-6
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fese/EN/Y2011/V5/I3/445
Fig.1  Evolution of economic development and carbon emissions in 30 provinces from 1995 to 2008
GDPaverageCO2-CV?δresultsgroup number
GDPaverage>1CO2-CV<1?δ<1Shanghai (x=3.12,y=0.57,z=0.51)Group I
Tianjin (x=1.98,y=0.69,z=0.67)
Beijing (x=1.90,y=0.33,z=0.40)
Liaoning (x=1.34,y=0.73,z=0.93)
CO2-CV>1?δ>1Shandong (x=1.14,y=1.53,z=1.18)Group II
?δ<1Zhejiang (x=1.56,y=1.24,z=0.82)Group III
Jiangsu (x=1.52,y=1.22,z=0.70)
Guangdong (x=1.41,y=0.96,z=0.72)
Fujian (x=1.28,y=1.37,z=0.73)
GDPaverage<1CO2-CV<1?δ>1Shanxi (x=0.64,y=0.90,z=2.30)Group IV
Xinjiang (x=0.70,y=0.74,z=1.48)
Gansu (x=0.41,y=0.77,z=1.72)
Guizhou (x=0.30,y=0.76,z=2.05)
Shaanxi (x=0.53,y=0.96,z=1.11)
?δ<1Anhui (x=0.60,y=0.66,z=0.58)Group V
Chongqing (x=0.94,y=0.74,z=0.68)
Heilongjiang (x=0.91,y=0.44,z=0.40)
Jilin (x=0.84,y=0.76,z=0.87)
Sichuan (x=0.81,y=0.91,z=0.61)
Jiangxi (x=0.57,y=0.94,z=0.80)
Hubei (x=0.82,y=0.94,z=1.0)
CO2-CV>1?δ>1Ningxia (x=0.52,y=1.54,z=4.47)Group VI
Qinghai (x=0.60,y=1.13,z=2.66)
Yunnan (x=0.49,y=1.17,z=1.76)
Hebei (x=0.86,y=1.14,z=1.70)
Inner Mongolia (x=0.81,y=1.66,z=2.13)
Henan (x=0.60,y=1.31,z=1.28)
Hunan (x=0.61,y=1.22,z=1.09)
?δ<1Guangxi (x=0.60,y=1.15,z=0.89)Group VII
Hainan (x=0.81,y=1.31,z=0.82)
Tab.1  Classification of the 30 provinces
Fig.2  Decomposition of aggregated CO in eight typical provinces: (a) Beijing; (b) Tianjin; (c) Shanghai; (d) Jiangsu; (e) Zhejiang; (f) Guangdong; (g) Shanxi; (h) Ningxia
Circles: contribution of population change; triangles: contribution of economic development; ‘x’ marks: contribution of energy intensity change; stars: contribution of energy structure change. Ningxia lines are broken due to a lack of data for 2003.
Fig.3  Decomposition of energy intensity in eight typical provinces: (a) Beijing; (b) Tianjin; (c) Shanghai; (d) Jiangsu; (e) Zhejiang; (f) Guangdong; (g) Shanxi; (h) Ningxia
“X” marks: contribution of structure change from industrial sector; stars: contribution of structure change from sectors other than industry; triangles: contribution of intensity change from industrial sector; circles: contributions of intensity change from sectors other than industry; dashes: residual.
Fig.4  Economic structure decomposition of 30 provinces (1995-2008)
Fig.5  Proportions of heavy and light industry in eight provinces
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