Probabilistic stability analysis of Bazimen landslide with monitored rainfall data and water level fluctuations in Three Gorges Reservoir, China

doi:10.1007/s11709-020-0655-y

Front. Struct. Civ. Eng.

2020, Vol. 14

Issue (5) : 1247-1261 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11709-020-0655-y

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Probabilistic stability analysis of Bazimen landslide with monitored rainfall data and water level fluctuations in Three Gorges Reservoir, China

Wengang ZHANG^1,^2,³, Libin TANG¹, Hongrui LI¹, Lin WANG¹(

), Longfei CHENG⁴, Tingqiang ZHOU⁴, Xiang CHEN⁴

¹. School of Civil Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, China
². Key Laboratory of New Technology for Construction of Cities in Mountain Area, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, China
³. National Joint Engineering Research Center of Geohazards Prevention in the Reservoir Areas, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, China
⁴. School of Civil Engineering, Chongqing Three Gorges University, Chongqing 404100, China

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Abstract

Landslide is a common geological hazard in reservoir areas and may cause great damage to local residents’ life and property. It is widely accepted that rainfall and periodic variation of water level are the two main factors triggering reservoir landslides. In this study, the Bazimen landslide located in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) was back-analyzed as a case study. Based on the statistical features of the last 3-year monitored data and field instrumentations, the landslide susceptibility in an annual cycle and four representative periods was investigated via the deterministic and probabilistic analysis, respectively. The results indicate that the fluctuation of the reservoir water level plays a pivotal role in inducing slope failures, for the minimum stability coefficient occurs at the rapid decline period of water level. The probabilistic analysis results reveal that the initial sliding surface is the most important area influencing the occurrence of landslide, compared with other parts in the landslide. The seepage calculations from probabilistic analysis imply that rainfall is a relatively inferior factor affecting slope stability. This study aims to provide preliminary guidance on risk management and early warning in the TGR area.

Keywords reliability analysis Bazimen landslide rainfall reservoir water level slope stability

Corresponding Author(s): Lin WANG

Just Accepted Date: 31 August 2020 Online First Date: 15 October 2020 Issue Date: 16 November 2020

Cite this article:

Wengang ZHANG,Libin TANG,Hongrui LI, et al. Probabilistic stability analysis of Bazimen landslide with monitored rainfall data and water level fluctuations in Three Gorges Reservoir, China[J]. Front. Struct. Civ. Eng., 2020, 14(5): 1247-1261.

URL:

https://academic.hep.com.cn/fsce/EN/10.1007/s11709-020-0655-y
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fsce/EN/Y2020/V14/I5/1247

Fig.1 Topographical map of the Bazimen landslide, with monitoring points [2]. (Reprinted from Engineering Geology, 218, Huang F M, Huang J S, Jiang S H, Zhou C B, Landslide displacement prediction based on multivariate chaotic model and extreme learning machine, 1327–1354, Copyright 2017, with permission from Elsevier.)

Fig.2 Schematic geological cross-section

1 − 1'

of the Bazimen landslide.

Fig.3 Reservoir water level, rainfall and accumulated displacement at location ZG110 and ZG111 in the Bazimen landslide.

Tab.1 Physical and mechanical properties of soil materials

Tab.2 Hydraulic parameters of the Bazimen landslide model

Fig.4 Annual variation of the reservoir water level in the TGR (2016–2018).

Fig.5 Velocity of reservoir water level fluctuation from 2016 to 2018.

Tab.3 Calculation schedule of rainfall and reservoir water level for slope stability analysis

Fig.6 Annual rainfall in the Bazimen landslide area from 2016 to 2018.

Fig.7 (a) Average reservoir water level and rainfall (2016-2018); (b) annual landslide stability coefficient and average annual displacement under Condition 1.

Fig.8 Monthly rainfall and displacement of the Bazimen landslide from 2003 to 2018.

Fig.9 Safety factor and failure probability of Bazimen landslide under Condition 2-1. (a) Variation of safety factor; (b)variation of failure probability with a COV of 0.05; (c) variation of failure probability with a COV of 0.10; (d) variation of failure probability with a COV of 0.20.

Fig.10 Safety factor and failure probability of Bazimen landslide under Condition 2-2. (a) Variation of safety factor; (b) variation of failure probability with a COV of 0.05; (c) variation of failure probability with a COV of 0.10; (d) variation of failure probability with a COV of 0.20.

Fig.11 Safety factor and failure probability of the Bazimen landslide under Condition 2-3. (a) Variation of safety factor; (b) variation of failure probability with a COV of 0.05; (c) variation of failure probability with a COV of 0.10; (d) variation of failure probability with a COV of 0.20.

Fig.12 Safety factor and failure probability of the Bazimen landslide under Condition 2-4. (a) Variation of safety factor; (b) variation of failure probability with a COV of 0.05; (c) variation of failure probability with a COV of 0.10; (d) variation of failure probability with a COV of 0.20.

Fig.13 The convergence curves of the probability of failure vs the number of trials, in which the most dangerous scenarios of Conditions 2-1 to 2-4 are shown. (a) Conditions 2-1; (b) Conditions 2-2; (c) Conditions 2-3; (d) Conditions 2-4.

Fig.14 The 6th day saturation of observation points under Conditions 2-1 to 2-4.

Fig.15 Volumetric water content of observation points under Condition 2-4.

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