Please wait a minute...
Frontiers of Earth Science

ISSN 2095-0195

ISSN 2095-0209(Online)

CN 11-5982/P

Postal Subscription Code 80-963

2018 Impact Factor: 1.205

Front Earth Sci Chin    0, Vol. Issue () : 42-50    https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-009-0013-9
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Rapid warming in mid-latitude central Asia for the past 100 years
Fahu CHEN1(), Jinsong WANG1,2, Liya JIN1, Qiang ZHANG2, Jing LI1, Jianhui CHEN1
1. Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China; 2. Institute of Arid Meteorology, CMA, Key (Open) Laboratory of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province (CMA), Lanzhou 730020, China
 Download: PDF(232 KB)   HTML
 Export: BibTeX | EndNote | Reference Manager | ProCite | RefWorks
Abstract

Surface air temperature variations during the last 100 years (1901-2003) in mid-latitude central Asia were analyzed using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). The results suggest that temperature variations in four major sub-regions, i.e. the eastern monsoonal area, central Asia, the Mongolian Plateau and the Tarim Basin, respectively, are coherent and characterized by a striking warming trend during the last 100 years. The annual mean temperature increasing rates at each sub-region (representative station) are 0.19°C per decade, 0.16°C per decade, 0.23°C per decade and 0.15°C per decade, respectively. The average annual mean temperature increasing rate of the four sub-regions is 0.18°C per decade, with a greater increasing rate in winter (0.21°C per decade). In Asian mid-latitude areas, surface air temperature increased relatively slowly from the 1900s to 1970s, and it has increased rapidly since 1970s. This pattern of temperature variation differs from that in the other areas of China. Notably, there was no obvious warming between the 1920s and 1940s, with temperature fluctuating between warming and cooling trends (e.g. 1920s, 1940s, 1960s, 1980s, 1990s). However, the warming trends are of a greater magnitude and their durations are longer than that of the cooling periods, which leads to an overall warming. The amplitude of temperature variations in the study region is also larger than that in eastern China during different periods.

Keywords arid      central Asia      temperature variation      warming trend     
Corresponding Author(s): CHEN Fahu,Email:fhchen@lzu.edu.cn   
Issue Date: 05 March 2009
 Cite this article:   
Jinsong WANG,Liya JIN,Jianhui CHEN, et al. Rapid warming in mid-latitude central Asia for the past 100 years[J]. Front Earth Sci Chin, 0, (): 42-50.
 URL:  
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/10.1007/s11707-009-0013-9
https://academic.hep.com.cn/fesci/EN/Y0/V/I/42
Fig.1  Distribution of meteorological stations in the research area and the sub-regions according to temperature variations delineated by REOF analysis. Dots=stations; Triangles=central stations; I: East Asia Monsoon Region; II: Central Asia Arid Region; III: Mongolian Arid Region; IV: Tarim Arid Region
station codestation namestation position
35121Orenburg51.7°N, 55.1°E
35700Gur’Ev47.0°N, 51.9°E
36177Semipalatinsk50.4°N, 80.3°E
36870Almaty43.2°N, 76.9°E
38001Fort Sevcenko44.5°N, 50.2°E
38457Tashkent41.3°N, 69.3°E
38507Krasnovodsk40.0°N, 53.0°E
38687Cardzou39.1°N, 63.6°E
54511Beijing39.9°N, 116.3°E
Tab.1  Nine stations which have 100 years of observations (1901-2003)
station351213570036177368703800138457385073868754511average
correlation coefficient0.810.880.720.690.760.840.870.820.640.78
Tab.2  Correlation between extended and observational time series for nine stations
Fig.2  Spatial distribution of the first (a) and second (b) eigenvectors for the extended mean annual temperature anomalies. The solid and dashed lines denote positive and negative values, respectively.
T typesPC12345678
annual meanvariance/%54.310.26.14.13.72.82.01.7
accum. var./%54.364.570.674.778.481.283.284.9
springvariance /%43.915.19.86.93.43.12.51.6
accum. var. /%43.959.068.875.779.182.284.786.3
summervariance /%36.49.88.47.26.45.03.63.2
accum. var. /%36.446.254.661.868.273.276.880.0
autumnvariance /%45.513.87.95.13.82.92.61.9
accum. var. /%45.559.367.272.376.179.081.683.5
wintervariance /%52.913.38.04.12.62.11.61.4
accum. var. /%52.966.274.278.380.983.084.686.0
Tab.3  The percentage variances of the first 8 principal components (PC) (T=temperature; Accum. var.=accumulated variance)
Fig.3  Annual (left panel) and winter (right panel) mean temperature anomalies of the representative stations ((a) to (d)) and the research area as a whole (e) in the interval 1901-2003. The coarse lines show the linear trends of temperature variation. (a)East Asia Monsoon Region; (b)Central Asia Arid Region; (c)Mongolian Plateau Arid Region; (d)Tarim Basin Arid Region; (e) Regional area in this study
Fig.4  Comparison of extended temperature time series, tree-rings and observational temperature between 1901 and 2003. The coarse solid line is the 11-year moving averaged series. (a) Tree-ring index departure of Mongolia (after ); (b) Reconstructed temperature departure of Altai Station (observational data is used in the curve after 1961, the same below); (c) The observational averaged temperature departure of the 3 adjacent stations with 100 years of continuous observation in Central Asia; and (d) Extended temperature departure of the 3 stations in Central Asia.
Fig.5  Comparison of the temperature changes in the mid-east Asian arid area and the Tibetan Plateau (), East China, Xinjiang, China () and NH () during the last 100 years. The temperature anomalies (in vertical coordinates in the figure) are all relative to the mean value of 1961-1990 according to . The curves are smoothed with a 5-year moving average. The fine solid line is the 5-year moving average sequence. The coarse solid line is the fitted curve by a quintic polynomial equation. The NH temperature data is from the Climatic Research Unit, East Anglia University, UK. Temperature unit: °C.
1 Ding Y H, Dai X S (1994). Temperature change in China during the past 100 years. Meteorology , 20(12): 19-26 (in Chinese)
2 Ding Y H, Wang S R (2001). A Survey of climate change and the ecological environment in Northwest China. Beijing: Meteorological Press, 204 (in Chinese)
3 Folland C K, Rayner N A, Brown S J, Smith T M, Shen S S P, Parker D E, Macadam I, Jones P D, Jones R N, Nicholls N, Sexton D M H (2001). Global temperature change and its uncertainties since 1861. Geophysical Research Letters , 28: 2621-2624
doi: 10.1029/2001GL012877
4 Hansen J E, Ruedy R, Glascoe J (1999). GISS analysis of surface temperature change. Journal of Geophysical Research , 104: 30997-31022
doi: 10.1029/1999JD900835
5 Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M, Imhoff Mm Lawrence W, Easterling D, Peterson T, Karl T (2001). A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change. Journal of Geophysical Research , 106: 23947-23963
doi: 10.1029/2001JD000354
6 Huang J Y (1998). REOF analysis and its application in weather analysis. Meteorology , 14(9): 47-51 (in Chinese)
7 Jacoby G C, Rosanne D D, Davaajamts T (1996). Mongolian tree rings and 20th-century warming. Science , 273: 771-773
doi: 10.1126/science.273.5276.771
8 Jones P D (1994). Hemispheric surface air-temperature variations-a reanalysis and an update to 1993. Journal of Climate , 7 (11): 1794-1802
doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<1794:HSATVA>2.0.CO;2
9 Jones P D, Briffa K R (1992). Global surface air temperature variations over the twentieth century, 1, Spatial, temporal and seasonal details. Holocene , (2): 165-179
10 Jones P D, Moberg A (2003). Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2001. Journal of Climate , 16: 206-223
doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0206:HALSSA>2.0.CO;2
11 Jones P D, New M, Parker D E, Martin S, Rigor I G (1999). Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years. Reviews of Geophysics , 37 (2): 173-199
doi: 10.1029/1999RG900002
12 Kawamura R (1994). A rotated EOF analysis of global sea-surface temperature variability with interannual and interdecadal scales. Journal of Physical Oceanography , 24: 707-715
doi: 10.1175/1520-0485(1994)024<0707:AREAOG>2.0.CO;2
13 Lin X C, Yu S Q, Tang G L (1995). Temperature sequence of China for the past 100 years. Atmospheric Sciences 19(5): 525-534 (in Chinese)
14 Liu X D, Chen B D (2000). Climatic Warming in the Tibetan Plateau during Recent Decades. International Journal of Climatology , 20: 1729-1742
doi: 10.1002/1097-0088(20001130)20:14<1729::AID-JOC556>3.0.CO;2-Y
15 Liu X D, Zhang M F, Hui X Y, Kang X C (1998). The features of contemporary climate change on the Tibetan Plateau and its response to greenhouse effects. Geographical Sciences , 18(2): 113-121 (in Chinese)
16 Peterson T C, Karl T R, Jamason P F, Knight R, Easterling D R (1998). First difference method: Maximizing station density for the calculation of long-term global temperature change. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmosphere , 103 (D20): 25967-25974
doi: 10.1029/98JD01168
17 Qian Z A, Wu T W, Song M H, Ma X B, Cai Y, Liang X Y (2001). Arid disaster and advances in arid climate researches over northwest china. Advances in Earth Sciences , 16(1): 28-38 (in Chinese)
18 Servain J, Legler D M (1986). Empirical orthogonal function analyses of tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature and wind stress: 1964-1979. Journal of Geophysical Research , 91(C12): 14181-14191
doi: 10.1029/JC091iC12p14181
19 Singer S F (2003). Editor bias on climatic change. Science , 301:595-596
doi: 10.1126/science.292.5519.1063b
20 Singer S F, Kennedy D, Johnston J D (2001). Global warming: An insignificant trend? Science , 292 (5519): 1063-1064
21 Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt K B, Tignor M, Miller H L (2007). Technical Summary . In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt K B, Tignor M, Miller H Leditors, Climate Change2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change . Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA
22 Tu Q P (1986). A method for extending the temperature sequence field. The journal of Nanjing Meteorological College (in Chinese), 9(1): 19-30
23 Tu Q P, Deng Z W, Zhou X L (2000). Regional Characteristics of the temperature anomaly in China. ACTA Meteorologica , 58(3): 288-296 (in Chinese)
doi: 10.1360/02wc0331
24 Wang N L, Yao T D, Pu J C, Ren J W, Zhang Y L (2003). Temperature change during the last 100 years documented by Malan Ice Core on the Tibetan Plateau. Chinese Science Bulletin , 48(11): 1219-1233 (in Chinese)
doi: 10.1360/02wc0331
25 Wang S W (1990). The trend of temperature change in China and the globe for the past 100 years. Meterological Monthly , 16(2): 11-15 (in Chinese)
26 Wang S W, Ye J L, Gong D Y, Zhu J H, Yao T D (1998). Construction of mean annual temperature series for the last one hundred years in China. Journal of Applied Meteorology (in Chinese with English abstract), 9(4):393-401
27 Wang S W, Zhu J H, Cai J N (2004). Interdecadal variability of temperature and precipitation in China since 1880. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences , 21(3): 307-313
doi: 10.1007/BF02915560
28 Yao T D, Shi Y F, Thompson L G (1997). High resolution record of paleoclimate since the little ice age from the Tibetan ice cores. Quaternary International , 37: 19-23
doi: 10.1016/1040-6182(96)00006-7
29 Yao T D, Xie Z C, Wu X L, Thompson L G (1991). Climatic-change since little ice-age recorded by Dunde ice cap. Science in China (Series B) , 34(6): 760-767
30 Zhu Q G, Shi N, Wu Z H, Shen T L (1997). The long-term change of atmospheric active centers in northern winter and its correlation with China climate in recent 100 year. ACTA Meteorologica Sinica , 55(6): 750-758 (in Chinese)
[1] Baofu LI, Jili ZHENG, Xun SHI, Yaning CHEN. Quantifying the impact of mountain precipitation on runoff in Hotan River, northwestern China[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2020, 14(3): 568-577.
[2] Weihe REN, Yan ZHAO, Quan LI, Jianhui CHEN. Changes in vegetation and moisture in the northern Tianshan of China over the past 450 years[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2020, 14(2): 479-491.
[3] Jingjie ZANG, Yanyan LEI, Huan YANG. Distribution of glycerol ethers in Turpan soils: implications for use of GDGT-based proxies in hot and dry regions[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2018, 12(4): 862-876.
[4] Chunlan LI, Jun WANG, Richa HU, Shan YIN, Yuhai BAO, Yuwei LI. ICESat/GLAS-derived changes in the water level of Hulun Lake, Inner Mongolia, from 2003 to 2009[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2018, 12(2): 420-430.
[5] Zhen LI, Jinghu PAN. Spatiotemporal changes in vegetation net primary productivity in the arid region of Northwest China, 2001 to 2012[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2018, 12(1): 108-124.
[6] Yaowen XIE, Guisheng WANG, Xueqiang WANG, Peilei FAN. Assessing the evolution of oases in arid regions by reconstructing their historic spatio-temporal distribution: a case study of the Heihe River Basin, China[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2017, 11(4): 629-642.
[7] Yecheng YUAN, Baolin LI, Xizhang GAO, Haijiang LIU, Lili XU, Chenghu ZHOU. A method of characterizing land-cover swap changes in the arid zone of China[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2016, 10(1): 74-86.
[8] Yanying BAI, Thomas A. SCOTT, Qingwen MIN. Climate change implications of soil temperature in the Mojave Desert, USA[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2014, 8(2): 302-308.
[9] Chao GAO, Jun LEI, Fengjun JIN. The classification and assessment of vulnerability of man-land system of oasis city in arid area[J]. Front Earth Sci, 2013, 7(4): 406-416.
[10] James P. LASSOIE, Ruth E. SHERMAN. Promoting a coupled human and natural systems approach to addressing conservation in complex mountainous landscapes of Central Asia[J]. Front. Earth Sci., 2010, 4(1): 67-82.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed